bama

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sometimes the tail wags the dog.  Not this dog.  Abby Roux is riding the wave.  Four total points stood between her and a perfect week two.  So it goes.  She’ll gladly take it.

The results in week two were identical to week one.  That brings the season totals to six wins v four losses, ten delicious bones won v six lost, and the hunch bet is two and oh so fine.

Week three seems tricky.  Picks follow.

  1.  Michigan St +6 1/2 at Miami —  Something about this line troubles Abby greatly.  Is the wrong team favored?  She hopes.  It’s a bit more humid in Coral Gables than in East Lansing this time of the year.  That said, take the Spartans plus six and a half for one bone and straight-up(+190) for one bone wagered to win two.
  2. Mississippi St. at Memphis +3 1/2 —  Is the wrong team favored, part two? This is the beginning of the end for Mike Leach.   The money line isn’t great, so one bone on the plus.
  3. Central Michigan at LSU -19 1/2 —  Hopefully the wrong team isn’t favored here.  LSU has done nothing in two games to inspire any confidence much less be favored by this much over a high school team.  Did we mention that Abby likes to zig when others zag?  Two bones.
  4. Arizona St – 3 1/2 at BYU —  The Sun Devils historically trip over their pitchforks in a spot like this. Herm Edwards is in year four in Tempe.  UCLA in week one, and Oregon in week two got big out of conference wins for the PAC 12.  Ariz St. does as well in week three.  One bone.
  5. Florida St +4 1/2 at Wake Forest — Nobody circles the wagons like the Seminoles, do they?  They’ll need to after a devastating loss last week to Jacksonville St.  Wall Street calls this a dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats, so she approves of this Wall Street metaphor.  One bone.

Alabama, favored by 14 1/2, travels to Gainsville to beat Florida this Saturday.  The over/under is 60 and 1/2.  Abby thinks Bama’s D will come to play.  On a hunch, she’ll take the under.

Woof!

 

Focus on the Process

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When Nick Saban won his first NCAA National Championship in 2003 he did so with a defense that held a potent Oklahoma offense to 14 points while his LSU Tigers put up 21.  Seven of those 21 points scored were by his defense as DL Marcus Spears dropped into coverage, picked a hot route, and picked up seven on a rumble into the end zone.

Game by game in the season’s 14 games (one loss) Saban’s defense surrendered 7,13,7,10,6,19,7,7,10,3,14,24,13, and 14.  That’s 154 in all and an average of 11 per game.

Last evening Nick Saban won his seventh championship, the last six all with Alabama.  No one has won more championships in NCAA history.  In this one, his offense put up 52 and his defense gave up 24 to Ohio St.

Game by game in this season’s 13 games (all wins) Saban’s offense scored 38,52,63,41,48,41,63,42,55,52,52,31, and 52.  That’s 640 in all and an average of 49 per game.

Maybe you don’t think the game is changed.  “Defense wins championships,” you say.  The run-pass option(RPO) with an athletic QB and the spread offense with the same has indeed changed the game.

And, Saban realized this.  “It used to be that good defense beats a good offense. Good defense doesn’t beat good offense anymore,” Saban told ESPN last October 23rd.   “It’s just like last week. Georgia has as good a defense as we do an offense, and we scored 41 points on them [in a 41-24 Alabama win]. That’s not the way it used to be. It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren’t going to score. You were always going to be in the game.”

“I’m telling you. It ain’t that way anymore.”

He adapted.  And, quickly.  Expect Bama to have four first-round players taken in the 2021 NFL draft.  All will be on offense.  Just three years ago they had four as well.  Three were on defense.

Years ago Bum Phillips said, “Don Shula could take his’ums and be your’ums, then he could take your’ums and be his’ums.”  He could have been speaking about Saban as well.

Give Sarkesian credit.  He maximized great offensive talent with beautiful, year-long scheming.  Give Kiffin credit.  Before Sarkesian he did the same.  But, give Saban the credit as he had the foresight to recruit fast cars with great turning radius’ and hand the keys over on offense to paid professional drivers.

Seven championships in the last 17 years make Saban the best ever.  But, how long can he keep the dynasty rolling?  His 2021 recruiting class, when it’s complete in February, will record the highest cumulative rating ever assigned by the major services that track these kids.  It’s going to be hard to slow the Tide’s roll.

Oh, and his coaching tree looks like a forest.  But, he keeps hiring winner after winner to his staff as well.  What’s the one constant through it all?  Nick Saban.

His uncle Lou Saban was still coaching in Division II when he passed at 82.  Yes, nothing is forever, but Saban will likely adapt and figure out that Father Time problem as well.

How?  It’s because he is forever preaching “focus on the process and the results will take care of themselves.”

And, his results speak for themselves.

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you have a good start on better health resolutions for the new year of 2019, good for you.  If not, it’s always a good day to get started.  Below are ten healthy nuggets CFB style to invigorate your resolve even further.  Digest them as you please.

  1. Despite all of the November angst when the college football playoff selection committee divulges its weekly rankings, the cream inevitably rises to the top.   Playing the “what if” team X loses and team y beats team z sells beer commercial time on sports shows.  It does little else.  Alabama and Clemson’s body of work to this point have separated them, yet again, as college football’s finest.
  2. This will be the fourth consecutive meeting between the two schools in the playoffs.  It will be the third time in the final as Bama took out Clemson last year in the semis.   The two teams have lost seven games combined in the last four years.  Three of those losses come when facing each other.  Throw those out and the two are a combined 107-4 versus all other teams.  That’s a 96% win percentage.  Everyone else has been playing for third place. How long might this continue?
  3. Third place doesn’t matter too much unless you are a fan of one of a handful of teams who might want consolation bragging rights for the next few months.  Notre Dame and Oklahoma entered the playoffs ranked third and fourth respectively.  BBR thinks that it’s more that the music stopped and they had a chair to sit on than it was that they had separated themselves that much from teams ranked 5-8.
  4. Criticize ND all you want if you feel like they really weren’t a top four team.  But don’t shoot the Irish for their schedule.  Schedules are made years in advance.  I doubt anyone thought three or four years ago that Stanford, USC, Virginia Tech, and Florida St. would be collectively as down as they were in 2018.  Add wins over Pittsburgh, Michigan, Northwestern, and Syracuse and you have had the makings of a solid strength of schedule.  Their season opening win over Michigan looked better and better as Michigan piled up wins.  It quelled ND naysayers and got them on to the doorstep of the final four before the Wolverines imploded.
  5. Criticize Oklahoma all you want if you feel like they really weren’t a top four team.  But don’t shoot the Sooners for their offensive firepower.  Criticize them for their defense or lack thereof.  Oklahoma gave up 40 points or more in six games this year.  Six.  Serious contenders for championships are minimally above average in all three phases of the game and really good at two or more of them.  Oklahoma’s D doesn’t pass that test even though their offense passes all over everyone.
  6. Of the teams bunched in the 3-8 spots all were good, none were great.  THE Ohio St. looked listless three times, but lost only once.  It was, however, a shellacking by an average Purdue squad that got worked by Auburn during bowl week.  The aforementioned Michigan was worked by THE in the Big 10 showdown.   As Peach Bowl participants they enjoyed the festivities leading up to the game v. Florida.  Apparently they pulled the rip cord and decided not to participate in the game itself.  Florida finished strong, but hiccupped early.  UCF has a fun team that has no beef in the trenches to compete in real big boy football.  Georgia was on the short list for a while, but Bama set them back and Texas beat them soundly.  Texas closed strong.  But 4 L’s are 4 L’s.
  7. The power five conferences were bunched together in their collective bowl performances with no clear standouts or failures.
    1. 4-3 Big 12
    2. 5-4 Big Ten
    3. 6-5 SEC
    4. 5-5 ACC
    5. 3-4 PAC 12
  8.  BBR thinks that Wisconsin, Washington, and Miami were pretty big 2018 disappointments relative to their talent, their competition, their schedule, and therefore their final body of work.  We were quite surprised by Kentucky, Washington St, Cincinnati, and Utah St.
  9. It’s just about 230 days till the 2019 season kicks off.   Watch out for Texas, Florida, and Texas A&M next year.  If Herman, Mullen, and Fischer were a law firm they would be tough in a courtroom.
  10. Before the 2019 season kicks off, the 2018 season has just that one game left this coming Monday night.  Is another Bama v Clemson matchup good or bad for college football?  BBR thinks it is neither.  It just is what it is.  Enjoy the amazing talent and depth of same on display.  The NFL scouts do.
  11. (one leftover)  We say again that the targeting rule, interpretation, in-game review, penalty, and player suspension resulting from it is in need of serious review itself.  The NCAA can move like an overweight sloth at times.  We hope that this is not one of those times.

Enjoy the FBS Championship.  The turf in NoCal this time of the year is bad terrible.  Abby wagged her tail and barked Clemson 33-31 just so you know.