betting

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby watched Scott Van Pelt’s “Bad Beats” ESPN segment last Monday night with great disinterest.  She dropped two games in the final seconds v the spread to fall just below .500 for the week.  Stuff happens.

This was after a great week 3, so all is well for the hound.  Pound for pound she likes a lot of what she sees this week.

  1. Tulane at Houston -2 1/2 – Friday Night Lights in Texas.  Dana Holgersen ripped the Cougars up one side and down the other after their mistake-filled lethargic effort v Rice last week.  Expect Houston to come out like their hair is on fire.  One bone.
  2. Michigan St +7 1/2 at Maryland and Purdue + 12 1/2 at Minnesota- The Big 10 Parlay of the Day.  Michigan St cannot be as bad as they looked last week, can they?  Minnesota cannot be as good as they looked last week, can they?  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Iowa St -3 at Kansas – Dorothy Special – Head Coach Lance Leipold is a wizard and might find the yellow brick road filled with gold later this year.  But, don’t mistake Matt Campbell for the Tin Man.  He’s turned down more offers than you can count on one hand. Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Ole Miss -7 –  This line looks like Vegas is screaming for you to take Kentucky.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  5. Texas A&M ML +155 at Mississippi St –  The Aggies stumbled to another victory last week after Arkansas fumbled away what would have been a 21-0 lead.  Abby expects more of the same out of the Aggies this week with Reveille’s help.  Two bones to win three bones.
  6. Oklahoma -6 at TCU-  Abby has licked her chops for this game all week.  She expects the Sooners to win comfortably to erase the bad memory of last Saturday.  Two bones.
  7. LSU at Auburn +8 1/2 –  This yearly rivalry game always brings the unexpected.  Always.  Who would have thought LSU would be a road favorite by nearly 9 after they shot themselves in the foot 9 times v FSU a month ago?  LSU is minus four starters and Auburn has a dead man walking for a head coach.  Always. One bone.
  8. Georgia -14 (first half) at Missouri- Kirby Smart was smarting after his Dawgs slept through their win over Kent St. last week.  Georgia won’t be held back by a leash this week, especially in the first two quarters.  One bone.

Woof!!

 

Over Eight Easily in the Big Easy

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The average gambler is always amazed at how close Vegas comes to getting betting lines so close to real outcomes. But, the reality is that they get them  wrong as well.

The smart money, as they say, recognizes the miss before the game/season.  The rest of us bet either side, mostly on emotion, and Vegas gets the juice. Lines are made to evoke that collective response.  Vegas always gets the juice.

This brings us to season-long NFL wins bets.  We’ll have three (maybe four) for you in the next month or so.  Today is our first.

The New Orleans Saints’ win total in Vegas is 8.  It was 7 1/2 when it rolled out in March.

In the last five seasons only the Kansas City Chiefs have more wins than NOLA by a count of 55-53.

So, what’s changed?  Drew Brees (in 2021) and Sean Payton(now) are no longer.  Those are two BIG changes.

But another thing changed last year.  The NFL went to a 17-game schedule.  Therefore, Vegas thinks that the Saints will have a losing record in 2022.

BBR feels strongly otherwise.  Below are a litany of reasons.

  1.  Dennis Allen is now head coach.  He’ll call the in-game defense just as he has for the last six seasons.  He’s a steady and heady guy.
  2.  And the defense was very good the last two seasons.  We expect it to be even better. Two first-round picks (Payton Turner and Marcus Davenport) missed all or a big portion of the season.
  3. The defense has a chance to be elite this year.  Cam Jordan and DeMario Davis are true leaders.  The secondary might be the deepest in the NFL.  It added Tyrann Matthieu as well.
  4. Jameus Winston must 1) stay healthy, and 2) have a strong season as one expects of a former first pick of the first-round guy.  The constant change of personnel and coordinators in his NFL life combined with his immaturity has held him back.He’s saying and doing all of the right things this offseason.  He was 5-2 as the starter last year with only two picks before the season-ending injury.
  5. He’ll have weapons.  The team has positively transformed its weak wide receiver group.  In this one off-season, Marquez Calloway drops from the #1 wideout, which he never was, to a #4 which he’s more than capable of succeeding as.   Michael Thomas returns.  They drafted Chris Olave in round one.  They signed FA Javis Landry for the slot.  A weakness became a strength.
  6. Laugh all that you want, but N.O. signed a very capable backup should Winston face plant.  Andy Dalton became a punching bag in Cincinnati.  But, he’s a nine-year starter and an 11-year veteran in this league for a reason.  Quick, name two legit weapons he had while a Bengal.  He’s thrown for over 35k NFL yards.  If he wasn’t good he’d be long gone by now.
  7. The Saints’ special teams rank in the top 10 in most categories.  They put an emphasis on it.  Will Lutz is back to health and kicking this fall.  The team missed seven extra points and eight field goals in his absence.
  8. The law of averages says that this team will be healthier than last year.  Four QB’s started and 66 players started one game or more in all.  Sixty-six!  66!  The injury bug landed in The Crescent City and stayed there all of the fall.  Covid visited too.
  9. The division should provide 4 wins at a minimum.  Stated simply, Carolina is weak.  Atlanta is awful.  And the Saints have the Buccaneers’ number.  They’ve beaten them in the last four regular-season (Brady-led) games.
  10. Take those four and you need five more to cash.  So, can the black and gold go 5-6 against the rest of the schedule?  We think so and then some.  Watch for Alvin Kamara’s pending suspension though.  Courts move slowly.  He might not be suspended until late in the season, or even 2023.   When announced, how many and when the games are played is key.

Take the Saints over eight wins.  We see their record as 10-7 or better at the finish line.

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

While Wisconsin, Nebraska, Washington, and LSU disappointed their fan base in week one last week, Abby hit the ground like a bloodhound.  She hunted down three winners v two losers, five tasty bones up v three down, and hit her hunch.

That said you’re only as good as your next week, not your last in the gambling game.  She approaches week two cautioning herself not to overread week one.

Now, to the picks.

  1.  Western Kentucky at Army -6 –That said, Army got it done in week one.  She’s marching with the cadets again.  Either you stop their three-headed run game or you lose.  One bone.
  2. Pittsburgh at Tennessee +3 — The Volunteers and their beautiful bluetick coonhound Smokey stands their home ground.  Abby likes them straight up, but will take the three and run.  Two bones.
  3.  Buffalo at Nebraska -13 —  Scott Frost is coaching for his job.  Expect the Huskers to be hungover from the corn mash they took last week by Bielema and the Fighting Illini, but pull away in the second half.  Two bones.
  4.  Texas at Arkansas +7 — Texas pulled away impressively from U of Louisiana, formerly known as U of Louisiana Lafayette, formerly known as U of Southwestern Louisiana in Sark’s debut.  What’s in a name anyway? It’s all about the chant.
  • Raise your arms above your head during the patented (yes patented)  Hog Call, yell “Wooo” and wiggle your fingers for a few seconds.
  • Next, bring both arms straight down with fists clenched while yelling, “Pig.”
  • Then extend your right arm with the “Sooie.”
  • Repeat these steps two more times and finish by yelling.
  • Win two bones.

5.  Stanford +17 at USC —  If you look back at last week, you’d think Abby has gone doggone mad.  Did she mention that it’s important to not read too much into week one?  She’ll zig here when others zag.  One bone.

Washington travels three time zones to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines for a 7 pm kick.  Under the lights, the over/under is low at 49 points.  Abby thinks lower, and that Washington will give Michigan a battle in a field position/field goal-filled defensive struggle.  She likes under 49 on a hunch.

Woof!

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Ten

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As Halloween gives way to All Saints Day it’s spooky, despite some up and down weeks, how close to flat line Abby’s season to date results have been.  It’s tricky, but there’s been one treat.  Her hunch bet rang the door bell again and the candy flows.

For the season that bet is carving up Vegas like a pumpkin.  It’s 8 up and only 2 down.  The other bets are 21 up and 24 down, while the bones wagered are exactly even with 42 up and 42 down.

Lots of teams took this weekend off, but Abby never sleeps.  But, she is tired of the kids knocking on the front door.  The bobbing for apples begins below.

Kansas St v. Kansas +6 —  The Wildcats come off of a huge upset over Oklahoma while the Jayhawks upset the Red Raiders.  Abby thinks Red Raiders sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Les Miles has his team playing well.   Abby likes the six at home.  Two bones.

TCU v. Oklahoma St -3 — TCU comes off of a nice home win v. Texas.  Oklahoma St. comes home after a nice road win v. Iowa St.  Abby’s favorite movie is A Dog’s Way Home.  How bout dem Cowboy’s?  One bone.

Miami v. Florida St. -3 —  The Seminoles haven’t beaten a good team all year.  Miami isn’t a good team.  Abby thinks Seminoles sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Willie Taggart needs this one in the worst way.  The Noles cover late.  One bone.

Oregon v. USC + 4 1/2  and under 62—  Oregon needs to win out to make playoff noise.  This one won’t be easy, but we think they find a way to win but not cover in a game that actually has some West Coast defense.  One bone to win three bones.

Georgia -6 v. Florida —  Abby’s admittedly been back and forth on this game all week.  She is partial to Bulldogs and doesn’t like Gators.  But she bets with her head not her heart.  The six points seem like the side to be on in what seems like a coin flip game. But, she’s going to zig when others zag. Two bones.

The over/under points total in the Largest Outdoor (formerly known as Cocktail) Party is 45.  It seems low.  Abby thinks the word cocktail wasn’t insensitive but we digress.  She also thinks that when the line is yelling over she’ll take the under on a hunch.

Don’t you hate those cheap candy corns?

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby began the second half of the NCAA football season more like a lion roaring than a dog barking last week.  Vegas called and offered her a comped dog suite this week complete with a mani and pedi bar, lap pool, and a dog run in hopes of getting her back to the sports book.  For the week she won four of five against the spread, collected a very impressive eight of nine bones, and punched the hunch bet ticket yet again.  Vegas needs to try to get even.

For the season Abby’s four paws stand at 19 wins and 16 losses, winning 38 and losing 29 bones wagered, and improved her hunch bet to a gaudy six wins and only two losses.

As a reminder each bone is the hypothetical equivalent of betting $11 to win $10 as Vegas takes the $1 juice when they win.  So in winning 38 bones she has collected $380 (38 x $10).  In losing 29 bones she has lost $319 (29 x $11).  The net take season to date is $61 on a win percentage of 57% (38/67).   If you bet $11 on each hunch bet you would have won $60 while giving back only $22.  Enough with the calculus, and on to this week’s opportunities.

It’s big spreads and big home dogs week.  Abby loves home dogs, but is wary of big home dogs and big favorites.  In the top 6 Alabama, LSU, THE, Clemson and Wisconsin are all on the road and are favored by an average of 27 points while Oklahoma is a 33 1/2 home favorite.  Woof!  Be careful.

Purdue v. Iowa -17 —  Iowa’s offensive scores are few and far in between.  Iowa’s defensive scores allowed are even fewer and farther in between.  Purdue has underwhelmed Abby to this point.  It’s a Big 10 grind and an Iowa win 33-10 with a late cover.  One bone.

Florida -5 v. South Carolina and Under 46 1/2 —  Will Muschamp, fresh off of a huge road upset over Georgia, hopes that his team can keep the mojo going at home.  Dan Mullen, fresh off of a 42-28 LSU road loss, hopes his Gators can recapture the mojo that lead to the 6-0 start.  Abby will pair the Gator win with the under.  Both teams scored a lot last week, while this one sets up to be a slobber knocker.  One bone to win Three Bones.

Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4—  Has Abby ever mentioned that she loves home dogs?

The Orangemen’s season is basically on the line here.  They are one of the bigger disappointments season to date in the Power Five Conferences.  Abby is sniffing an outright win, but will wag her tail if she gets a cover.  Two bones.

Florida St. +2 v. Wake Forest —  Willie Taggert said last week that his team is close to being “right there” again in the ACC.  Then they went out and got worked by the Clemson Tigers.  If there is any fight left in the Seminoles (seems like an offensive name to Abby) they’ll win straight up.  Two bones.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St -4 —  On paper this almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Abby has been long on the resurgent Bears all year.  But, the line and the spot seem right for a Cowboy victory by about a touchdown.  We’ll call it 38-31 Okie St.  One bone.

Oregon v. Washington +3 —  Abby chases ducks whenever possible.  Her Husky friend does the same.  Oregon seems to be the best in the west by a fair margin.  But, we see two loses on their tail feathers and this is the second and final one.  One Bone.

On a hunch Abby is taking LSU v. Mississippi St. under 62 total points.  LSU has nearly averaged that on their own this year.  But.  This game is sandwiched in between Florida and Auburn.  LSU runs the ball a lot this week, rests several regulars, serves a few more suspensions, and plays some D to hold Moo St. to less than 17.

Start spreading the news.  Abby also likes the ball in Verlander’s hand tonight.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Seven

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to believe but after Saturday 50% of the regular NCAA season will be gone.  But, 50% remains.  And, what remains will be the better half as conference play is now the norm.

Abby and her bank account reaches the halfway mark just a bit ahead of that 50/50 area.  For the season her picks are 15 up v. 15 down.  The more important bones collected are 30 up and 28 down.  And, her amazing (dog) run on hunch (LY was 9-1) bets continues this year, now standing at 5 wins and only 2 losses.

Halloween is still three weeks away.  Some of the lines are a bit spooky.  Bravely, to the boneyard we go!

Virginia v. Miami -2 —  Virginia’s head coach is a Broncho, but Miami’s team speed is a Mustang.  It’ll be 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity down there tomorrow night.  Miami sweats out a late Cavalier drive and wins by more than 2 and less than 7.  One bone.

Oklahoma v. Texas +11 —  Texas upset Oklahoma last year in the Red River Rivalry.  A few years back this was called the Red River Shootout.    The PC crowd was upset about the violent name.  Nobody in the Big 12 plays violently, so what’s the big deal?  Expect a lot of scoring in this shootout.  Oklahoma gets the win, but so does Texas and the points.  One bone.

Mississippi St. v Tennessee + 7 —  This is Abby’s game of the month. How much better can it get?   It’s a bulldog vs. a blue tick hound!  And, the hound dog is a live home dog.  A straight up win by the Volunteers is possible.  There might even be a dog pile in the checkerboard endzone post game.  Four bones.

Cincinnati v. Houston + 7 1/2 —  The Bearcats are riding high after a home upset of UCF and have arrived in the AP Top 25 this week at #25.  They might leave H Town with a straight up loss and fall back into the dreaded “others receiving votes” mix mash.  One bone.

UAB -12 v. UTSA —  This is the eye chart game with all capital letters.  So far this year UAB passes the eye test.  That little bird that Abby keeps telling us about has a birdseye view of this one.  One bone.

The left coast has been great to Abby for hunches that win bunches.  Last week 16 point favorite Washington lost straight up to Stanford.   This week they are favored in Tuscon by 6 over the Arizona Wildcats.  Abby feels like the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona.  On a hunch she likes the Huskies doggone it.

 

Abby has again assigned the BBR staff to cover the LSU game live.  Work, work, work.

Woof, woof, woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Six

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Psst.  You heard the one about the old dog and new tricks?  Don’t tell Abby.  She walked around the global headquarters of BBR last week with the hair standing straight up on her back.  She subscribes to the Vince Lombardi mantra, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”  And after last Saturday, Coach Lombardi, from high above is proud of Abby.  Her picks cashed on four of the five games.  Even better than that, the bones won were nine of the ten wagered!  Woof, woof!  Her hunch bet also pawed the paydirt.

For the season Abby is now 13 of 25 on the picks, and importantly 25 of 48 bones.  Her hunch bet is now four up and only two down.  That’s enough scratching of her back.  It’s time to get back to the work of the weekend ahead.

Tulane v. Army +3 — It’s Homecoming for the Cadets.  Abby’s barking about a straight up win.  Abby wonders if Tulane’s D can stop the Army’s ground attack?   Is the right team favored?  Two bones.

Texas v West Virginia +10 1/2 —  WVa is a much better team at home than the road.  She likes home dogs.  Might Texas be a tad bit sluggish on the East Coast coming off of a bye and looking ahead to the Red River Shootout v. Oklahoma next week?  Abby says the Horns pull this out of the fire late, something like 35-31.  Two bones.

Auburn v. Florida (over 49) —  Lee Corso can put on a Gator, War Eagle, Plainsman, or Tiger hat and all Abby will do is yawn.  This one is billed as a mighty defensive struggle.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.

Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 —  Ole Miss isn’t very good.  The cellar of the West Division of the SEC awaits.  Vandy is worse.  The cellar of the East Division of the SEC awaits.  It’s tough to wager too much on a bad team, but Abby is yapping loudly about the Black Bears.  Two bones.

Utah St. v. LSU (under 73) —  LSU’s new fangled offense is due for a pit stop somewhere on this record setting road, isn’t it?  Conversely, LSU’s defense is past due at the toll booth, isn’t it?  Abby might be chasing a parked car here.  But, with an 11 AM kickoff she’ll beat the rush hour.  Three Bones.

Abby mentioned last week that no one deserved to be a double digit dog in the PAC 12 v. anyone else in the PAC 12 except maybe Oregon St.  On a hunch take Stanford +16 at home v. Washington.  Abby is a big fan of The Tree for obvious reasons.

The uncharacteristically slow start to the season looked like it aged Abby almost one dog year.  No more.   The bounce is back in her stride.

Enjoy the games as the conference tilts are upon us.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby promised to make money rain last week.  Unfortunately the “bad beat” gods rained on her instead.  Two games v the spread were lost by 1/2 point in her regular picks.  Her hunch bet had a dog house, back door late cover by 1/2 point as well.  Oh well.   For the season Abby has won 9 of 20 picks.  Her bone collection is buried in some backyard mud at 16 of 38.  Hunch bets have won three, and lost but two.

Week five features games almost as underwhelming as week three.  Only one top 25 matchup is on the card.  It’s # 10 ND hosting #18 Virginia.  Abby isn’t yapping about the choices, but she isn’t napping just yet either.  It’s time for this doggie to give the readers a treat, and to the picks we go.

Clemson v North Carolina +27 —  The Mack Brown miracle has been put on pause.  Clemson has hit its stride.  It’s a good spot for a back door cover to get even with last week’s beats.  One bone.

Iowa St. v Baylor +2 1/2 —  Abby loves home dogs.  She especially loves it when she thinks that the wrong team is favored.  Three bones.

Minn v Purdue + 1 1/2 —   Did we mention that Abby loves home dogs?  Did we mention that she especially loves it when she thinks that the wrong team is favored?  One bone.

Kansas St v Oklahoma St. – 4 —  Kansas St. has played better in year one without Bill Snyder than expected so far.  Oklahoma St. is smarting from a loss in a valiant effort v. Texas last week.  Abby says the Cowboys cover late in a lower than expected total score.  Three bones.

Penn St -6 v Maryland —  Before Abby heads in for her nap, she wants everyone to know that she thinks America is sleeping on the Nittany Lions.  Expect Maryland to be fired up at home, but expect Penn St to wear them out late.  Two bones.

Does any PAC 12 team deserved to be favored by 10 points over any other, Oregon St. aside?  Washington is favored by 10 over visiting USC.  The line seems out of bounds.  Hunch bets are made on outliers.  She thinks that Vegas is screaming at you to take USC.  She’ll take the Huskies, a favorite dog of hers to begin with.

Abby is a day early this week for logistical reasons.  It’s better than a day late.  And, her picks aren’t a dollar short.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby had some extra time to analyze her picks this week.  A tropical storm named Imelda visited her neighborhood and dropped a lot of rain.   Abby stayed high and dry watching game film.  She needed to.  Her season is off to a just below water start.   Through three weeks Abby has correctly picked 7 of 15 games and garnered 14 of 29 bones bet.  Her hunch bet, a sterling 9-1 last year, continues to hold water at 3-1 this year.  Arizona St. plus and the game under the total was a win win for her last week.  The well researched picks are below.

Utah -3 v. USC — The Utes are simply better than USC.  And they are better than the Trojans by more than a skinny field goal.   And they are way better if they trade for a rifle as Washington St. coach Mike Leach hysterically runs down that possibility in a must see 90 second video here.    Two bones.

LSU v. Vanderbilt +24 —  LSU is 3-0 v the spread.  LSU has numerous starters missing this week due to injury or suspension.  The kickoff is 11 AM.  We wonder if the Tigers won’t be a bit sleepy in the first half.  Two bones.

USA v. UAB – 10—  That bird that told us UAB is a good bet last week told us it’s a good bet this week.  Abby is a bird dog.  Make sense?  One bone.

Okla St. v Texas -6 1/2 —  This game is usually a shootout.  It might well be again, but doggone it Abby thinks Texas gets a stop or two on D to open the game up by a couple of scores in the fourth quarter.  Three bones.

UCLA +18 1/2 v. Washington St. —  Chip Kelly was famous 10 years ago.  UCLA was last good roughly ten years ago.  They are bad now.  So is Kelly’s coaching thus far.  Abby wonders if the Cougars won’t be looking ahead a bit to next week’s Utah matchup. One bone.

The Texas A&M/Auburn game total is only 47 1/2.  That seems low doesn’t it?  On a hunch Abby barks about it not being low enough.  On a hunch take under the total.

Put on your poncho this weekend.  With the bets above Abby will make the money rain.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby urged caution last week, and a tricky week 2 in college football betting it was for all.  No bets are free unlike all of the promises of free she heard last night in Houston emanating from the ten Democratic Presidential Debate podiums where begging was very much in style.

Through two weeks Abby is a below average 4 games of 10 picked correctly.  More importantly she’s gathered 11 of 21 bones, just enough to balance the checkbook an have a gnaw too. Her hunch bet (Maryland -1.5) covered and then some.  To the picks we go.

Kansas St. @ Miss St. -7.5 —  Who is the loneliest person in Starkville?  The tooth fairy of course.  Let the cowbells ring.  This one won’t be close.  Three bones.

NC St. @ West Virginia +7 —  Is NC St. that good to be made a 7 point road favorite?  Is WVa that bad to be made a 7 point home dog?  One bone.

Maryland @ Temple +7 —  Maryland has scored 142 points in two games, good for the fourth highest point total in NCAA history.  The nation took notice.  We think they spent this week admiring the shine on their Terrapin shell.  One bone.

USC @ BYU +4 —  We aren’t sure that the correct team is favored here.  We thought about the money line.  Abby will settle for making money at plus 4.  One bone.

Florida -8 @ Kentucky —  Dan Mullen might be one of the most underrated Power 5 college coaches in America.  Florida’s D is quick to the ball and wraps up like a Gator death roll.  Kentucky’s QB is out and you don’t replace Josh Allen and Bennie Snell easily in Lexington.  Close, but the Gators cover late.  Two bones.

On a hunch Abby likes Arizona St. plus 15 and 1/2 to cover v. Michigan St.  The over/ under in the game is only 41 and 1/2.  It’s so low.  It’s so, so low.  On hunch #2 we’ll take under on a zig bet when others zag.

And, lastly we have an important announcement.  Abby is considering a run for President.  Her platform does not include free universal veterinarian care for pooches nor free meals for strays.  She has, however,  promised to fulfill her obligation to BBR throughout this football season.   Whew!

Woof!