Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 1

Year one for Abby’s weekly column was quite a success.  Back by popular demand Abby barks out her thoughts on week one of year two.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).  If the betting line doesn’t meet their tight standards window they punt.

Abby takes a broader view when making her choices.  This can be more difficult.  That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.

For her inaugural journey she won 22 bets, lost 23, and tied one against the Vegas lines.  Importantly, she won 59 of 108 bones wagered.  That is a win percentage of 55%.  Each bone is $11 to win $10.  Thus, she finished plus $51 dollars on the year.  It’s didn’t take down the Vegas Strip, but it did afford a better grade of dog food than Kibbles & Bits.

Perhaps her hunch bets should have been part of the bones wagered.  The hunch bet finished year one with nine great wins versus only one loss.  That record will be difficult to match.

Some of her favorite mascots are back to bark words of encouragement to her.  So, as we near the end of the dog days of summer we begin year two with week one, always a dangerous one to sink your canines into.

Heads up.  Two of these winners go tonight.

Utah -5.5 v. BYU  — Abby smells a wide open PAC 12 race once again.  She’s pawing around with the idea of making the Utes the favorites to win it.  Too many good players vs. not enough makes this an easy week one cover.  Three bones.

FIU v. Tulane -2.0— Way down yonder in New Orleans Abby sees a well coached Green Wave team winning a lot of games this year.  Bonus points if you can name the FIU coach.  Butch Davis!  Double bonus points if you can name the Tulane Head coach.  Willie Fritz! Three bones.

Massachusetts +16.5 v. Rutgers  — Abby has been waiting for any chance to spot a flea.  Rutgers it is.   Should Rutgers be favored over anyone by 16?  Abby thinks Dog Obedience School should only be single digit underdogs to them.  Two Bones.

Colorado St. +13.5 v. Colorado –Rocky Mountain High has taken on a whole new meaning in recent years.  Abby wonders if the oddsmakers are smoking a bit of the state’s #1 crop these days with this line.  The Rams might even make this one interesting late in the evening when everyone has the munchies and are ordering pizza.  One bone.

Oregon +3.5 v. Auburn — This is the best game on an opening day season hunt that makes you want to leave your retrievers at home.   Somehow this comes down to a field goal to make the Ducks the hunted and the Plainsman the hunters.  One bone.

Abby is back at it.  Three dogs and two favs.

Oh, and on a hunch, parlay Kent St and Arizona St over 62 with Utah and BYU under 48.5.

Woof!