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Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 13

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

NCAA football, we hardly knew you.  Time flys.

This Saturday wraps up another college football regular season.  Abby might weigh in on a bowl or playoff game or two, but she makes her money in the regular season.

A breakeven week last week (one more won than lost, but Vegas collected the juice) puts her season longs at 47 wins and 34 losses and 67 bones won with 48 bones lost.  The hunch took its 3rd punch (Michigan St scored a whopping 7 so the total of 63 was under by 5) and stands at 8-3.

It’s always better to be a wary bettor during rivalry week.  The pickings look slim.

  1. Iowa at Nebraska + 1 1/2 — Frost’s team hasn’t quit.  They counterpunched Wisconsin to the wire last week.  This week they win at the wire.  Two bones.
  2. Cincinnati at East Carolina +14 1/2 —  Cincy and head coach Luke Fickell control their own playoff entry destiny. Can E Carolina ruin that?  No, but they can cover two touchdowns at home.  One bone.
  3. Kentucky at Louisville -3 — Like Nebraska, Louisville has played a handful of tough opponents close.  Saturday they get it done against a solid bunch of Wildcats.  One bone.
  4. Wisconsin at Minnesota +7 1/2 —  A straight-up win by the Golden Gophers would not shock Abby.  Wisconsin usually has a late-season “huh?” game.  If Whisky goes flat out for 60, this bet won’t hold up.  One bone.
  5. Oklahoma at Oklahoma St – 4 1/2  — Okie St has beaten their last five opponents by a 165-44 combined total and is peaking late.  Oklahoma has sputtered of late.  Vegas is begging John Q. Public to take Oklahoma.  Abby will take the zig on the zag.  One bone.

Vegas is fading Lincoln Riley as the next LSU coach.  He’s now +1000 in Vegas.  On a hunch, Abby will take Lincoln Riley announced Sunday as the next LSU head coach.    One bone to win ten bones.

Six bones, five home teams, three dogs, two chalks, and one longshot Lincoln.

Woof!

 

Editor’s note:  BBR is taking a four-day holiday starting roughly right now.

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 12

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s that time of the year.  Some great NCAA head coaching opportunities have opened making the coaching carousel go around faster and faster.

Website prognostication opportunities are much the same.  If you’re the top dog, you get paid the top dollar.

Accordingly, Abby released the following statement.

“Woof.  Woof.  It’s been a good year.  There is much work to do in the final two regular-season weeks as well as conference championships, bowls, and playoffs.  My focus is solely on the bones at hand.  BBR is not my doghouse, it’s my dog home.  We have games to analyze and pick.  I’m very happy here at BBR and intend on being here for a long time.  Thank you.  Bow wow!!”

Another winning week last week puts her squarely on top of the dogpile.  The won/loss is 42-30, and the bones are 61-42.  The hunch bombed, but the record is salty at 8-2.

  1.  Memphis at Houston -8 —  Houston is hammering the competition after a slower than expected start.  Memphis will keep it interesting for three quarters.  Lookout Cincy in the American Athletic Conference Championship game in two weeks.  One bone.
  2.  Florida -9 at Missouri —  The sky is falling.  Throw Mullen out like the bum that he is.  This looks like a good zig on a zag.  Two bones.
  3.  Texas +3 at West Virginia — The sky is falling part 2.  Throw Sarkesian out like the bum that he is.  This looks like a good zig on a zag part 2.  Two bones.
  4.  ULL +4 1/2 at Liberty —  Abby likes the Cajuns straight up but will take the points.  Will Billy Napier move 50 miles east soon?  One bone.
  5.  Nebraska + 9 1/2 at Wisconsin  — Whisky has been rolling for seven weeks after a slow start.    They are double tough at Camp Randall.  The under looks tempting as well.  Whisky wins, but it’s only by a shot glass or two.  Two bones.
  6.  UCLA -3 at USC —  UCLA has covered in four road games.  USC has not but in one home game.  The best team and the one that has anything to play for is the Bruins.  One bone.
  7. UAB +5 at UTSA — Name the only three undefeated teams left in college football.  Georgia, Cincinnatti, and UTSA.  Fear the Roadrunners.  It’s been a great run.  But.  One bone.
  8. Wyoming at Utah St – 5 1/2 —  Utah St has the Mountain West Championship Game in its sights.  Two speed bumps remain.  Wyoming is one of them.  One bone.
  9.  Baylor at Kansas St. -1 —  Wildcats are playing well.  Baylor is playing very well.  Are the Bears a bit hungover from the big win over Oklahoma?  It’s a classic letdown spot.  Abby points out that K St hasn’t beaten a ranked team all year.  Till now.  One bone.

In Columbus, THE Ohio St hosts Michigan St.  The total is 68 points.  That sounds very high.  Vegas is telling us something.  The hunch bet tries to bounce back and will take the over.

Six road teams, five chalks, four road dogs.

Woof!

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 10

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When you’re hot, you’re hot.  And, through nine weeks Abby is en fuego.

As November rolls in her record stands at 33 wins and 23 losses, and 51 impressive bones won versus only 32 lost.  And, hopefully, her hunch won you a bunch last week.  It stands tall at 7-1.

Hopefully, she didn’t spend too much time patting (pawing) herself on the back this past week.  In the handicapping business you’re only as good as your next pick.

Week 10 is upon us.  But be wary.  There are plenty of double-digit lines, big road favorites, and trap games.  Abby’s playing it close to the dog vest.  Bet too much this week on a game and you might need some hair of the dog on Sunday.

  1. Army at Air Force -2 1/2 — Abby thanks all for their service, including service dogs.  The game, rightfully so is a tossup.  She’ll take the high elevation home-field advantage along with a stout D.  One bone.
  2. NC State at Florida St +3 and Clemson -4 at Louisville — It’s a parlay reminiscent of the old days of the ACC when there were Tigers and Seminoles and not much else.  Two bones to win six bones.
  3. Houston -13 at South Florida — Like mentioned above, when your hot, you’re hot.  It’s hot temperature-wise in Tampa, but the Cougars are even hotter.   Abby’s been riding the hot hand of Dana Holgerson. Houston covers late.  One bone.
  4. Wake Forest at North Carolina +2 1/2 — It feels like the line is off a good bit here.  Vegas wants you on the WF side.  Abby, as you know, likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  5. Liberty at Ole Miss over 67 — A point a minute plus a touchdown is plenty of scoreboard action.  Ole Lane and Hugh are going to pull out all of the stops.  One bone.
  6. Baylor at TCU + 6 1/2 — The steady hand at the wheel is Dave Aranda for Baylor.  The steady hand that was at the TCU wheel for 20 years was Gary Patterson.  Abby hates cats but loves dead cat bounces.  One bone.
  7. Michigan St at Purdue +3 — It feels like the line is a good bit off here, part two.  Purdue took down then #2 Iowa in Iowa after a big win last month.  Now, the Spartans hit the road in a similar situation.  Buyer beware.  One bone.
  8. LSU at Alabama – 28 1/2 —  Two years ago Coach O made much over the win in Tuscaloosa over Alabama.  Maybe too much.  WIll St. Nick have mercy on O’s soul?  He might in the fourth quarter, but by then it’ll be 49-10.  Two bones.

The Air Force v. Army game in Colorado is an early Saturday kickoff.  The over/under is a crazy low 37 1/2.  On a crazy hunch, Abby likes the under.

Ten bones wagered to win sixteen.

Four chalks, four dogs, six home teams, two road warriors, one parlay, one over, one under.

Woof!

 

 

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 7

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Back in the late 70s, Reggie Jackson earned the moniker Mr. October for his assassin-like clutch playoff hitting.  A few(very few)Vegas watchers are beginning to wonder if Abby is on her way in the 20s to earning the nickname Ms. October for her assassin-like assault on the NCAA betting lines.

Another strong week brings the season she’s stacking up to 22 wins against 15 losses while winning 35 tasty bones and losing 18.  Her hunch bet lost last week, so that tally stands at 5-1.

Stay humble, we constantly remind her, as the Vegas Penthouse and the Vegas Outhouse accommodations are just one week’s reservations apart.

  1. Clemson -13 at Syracuse —  Abby’s been off of a down Clemson year.  But she thinks these Tigers get a dead cat bounce up north.  One bone.
  2.  Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech +5 1/2 —  This looks like a very live home dog.  The ML is tempting for a straight-up win as well, but give her the points.  One bone.
  3. Michigan St at Indiana +4 1/2 —  The Spartans have been playing winning football all year.  Indiana is a bit of a disappointment vs expectations.  Saturday the script flips.  One bone.
  4. Army at Wisconsin -14 — Abby barked for Army three weeks in a row.  She’s fading them now.  Whisky did her right a week ago, and she’s back for another round.  Two bones.
  5. Arizona St pick at Utah — What goes up and down more than a yoyo?  A Sun Devil.  Abby likes the Utes at home.  One bone.
  6. Oklahoma St at Texas -4 — The loser of last week’s epic Red River Showdown throws down.  Abby likes this one so much it scares her a bit.  Three bones.
  7. TCU at Oklahoma -13 1/2 — The winner of last week’s epic Red River Showdown might be in for a letdown.  A back door (or doggy door) cover is possible.  Nonetheless, Okie can score points in bunches.  One bone.

Mississippi can score points in bunches, too.  But the over/under at Rocky Top is 83 1/2.  On a strong hunch, Abby likes the under.  She also likes the Tennessee blue tick hound.

Four chalks, one pick, and two dogs.  It’s a bit against the norm.

Woof.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you’ve never been to the Flora-Bama bar, you should put it on your bucket list.  No really.  Bama has the best team football team in the world and 1/2 of the best bar in the world as well.  It sits 1/2 in Florida and 1/2 in Bama, right on the state line, fifty yards from the Gulf of Mexico.

  1. Do you think that Nick Saban coach of the best football team in the world stewed for the last 12 months that his former OC, and chief needler,  Lane Kiffen put 617 yards of offense on Saban’s pride and joy defense last year?  Saban gets mad and gets even.
  2. Speaking of defense, Georgia hasn’t allowed a single point in its last eight quarters of SEC play, pitching two shutouts in a row over hapless Vanderbilt and upstart Arkansas.  Four Georgia running backs rushed for 87, 68, 57, and 48 yards.  Deep bench.  Oh, and the O scored 99 points total in those same two games.
  3. Should we pronounce the winner of the SEC Championship game the national champ?  Probably.  Raise your hand if you don’t think the game will pit Bama versus Georgia? Saban’s win makes him 23 and 0 against his former assistant coaches.  Could Kirby Smart outsmart Saban in December to make it 23-1?  Are we getting ahead of ourselves?   Saban would say yes.  We’d say no.
  4.  But, the BIG 10 asks, “what about us?”  Iowa owned Maryland(51-14) on Friday and Penn St owned Indiana(24-0) on Saturday to check in at numbers 3 and 4 respectively in the AP top 25.  They’ll meet Saturday on the field near the cornfields in Iowa City.
  5.  That matchup will feature two top 5 BIG 10 teams for the first time since 1997 that one of them isn’t named THE Ohio St University.  Both Iowa and Penn State have beaten two ranked opponents already.  So this game is going to have a significant impact one way or another as one of them makes it three.
  6.  But, the Cincinnati Bearcats ask, “what about us?”  Cincy checks in proudly at #6 after going into South Bend and bouncing the Irish 24-13.  Cincinnati’s defense isn’t Georgia ferocious, but it’s mighty strong.  The Bearcats showed against ND they can perform on big stages. They have only one marginally ranked (24 SMU) left on their schedule.  Is that good or bad for them?  It depends on how the others ahead and slightly behind them play out.
  7.  And, 5-0 Oklahoma wants to make their way into the big boy talk.  At seven they’ll get a chance to pad their resume, as the winners of 13 straight are headed to Dallas to face # 21 Texas in the Red River Shootout next Saturday.
  8. Who is still undefeated besides all of the above-mentioned?  If you guessed Michigan, Michigan St., Coastal Carolina, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Oklahoma St., SMU, and San Diego St. you’re watching way too much football on Saturdays.
  9. That thud you heard late Saturday night was previously undefeated and now # 8 Oregon laying a big duck egg v Stanford. Arizona St is the only other PAC12 ranked team.  Oregon’s body of work includes a fine win at THE, so they’ll stay in the conversation for now.  But the PAC 12 playoff conversation is hanging on by a thread until something or things really shake up the standings.
  10. Although it could have been a reverberation from College Station where preseason #7 Texas A&M dropped out of the top 25 with a certified stinker of a loss to Mississippi St after losing to Arkansas the week before.  Jimbo’s contract was extended and guaranteed before the season started. The extension will increase his salary to $9 million on Jan. 1 and $9.15 million on Jan. 1, 2023.  After that, his salary will increase by $100,000 each year through 2031.  That’s good work if you can get it.  A&M has opened as an 18 point dog to Bama this week.
  11. (Lagniappe) Iowa is favored by 3 over Penn St., as is Michigan at Nebraska, as is Oklahoma v Texas in The Red River Shootout that you can’t call The Red River Shootout anymore.

Out.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As the season coughs it’s way to the last few weeks, Abby’s picks have been a bit under the weather.  A nice parlay landed and dulled the pain of some close (but they all count) losses.  Note to doggie- Notre Dame is legit and Texas is dog $%!#.

For the season the W/L total dipped below .500 for the first time at 26-28-1.  The bones are still cashing though at a respectable 45-38.  You can take bones to the bank or bury them in the backyard.  The hunch bet which picked opposite all of the above was a hedge bet winner and stands at 3-4.

The picks below will start a gambling December to remember.

  1. ULL +3 at Appalacian St. –  Rumors swirl that Coach Billy Napier will be headed to (pick one) Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, or another step up of his choosing in 2021.  But, for now, he keeps his Cajuns ragin.  It’s a Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Vanderbilt at Georgia over 54 – Last week the Commodores had a mason for a coach, a female for a kicker, and an offensive offense.  The kicker barely kicked and the coach was kicked out of the door.  The offense still stinks.  The ship is sinking.  Anchor down.  Dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats but loves UGA.  Two bones.
  3. Nebraska +3 at Purdue – Nebraska has one win this year.  It came versus a winless Penn St. Tomorrow they’ll have two for no good reason at all.  One bone.
  4. Florida at Tennessee + 17 and over 63 –  The double-digit dog in this series almost always covers.  It’s at Tennessee.  Florida is due for a 40 plus point game.  Tenn needs to score 27 and the parlay cashes.   One bone to win three bones.
  5. Indiana at Wisconsin -14 – The Badgers crashed into the wall on the third turn of the season.  They annually do so.  Abby predicts a focused effort against a good Indiana team.  This line seems quite high.  Therefore, we see a zig on a zag cover. Two bones.
  6. Texas A&M at Auburn + 6 and 1/2 – The Aggie cry for inclusion (a popular word these days) in the playoffs was dented by a bland performance last week.  This week the conversation ends.  Abby sees a straight-up win for Auburn as a real possibility.  One bone.

The hunch bet has a chance to get its year-long record to .500 this week.  Texas (-7) has no business being a seven-point pick over Kansas St much less almost anybody, do they?  Remember the note to doggie above?  Abby says Hook Em anyway.

Woof!

Blowing Smoke Following the Science?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Follow the science.  That’s been an often-used narrative since mid-March in the year of COVID-19.  It’s been the “go-to” when you are told to not go to bars for example.  It’s also been the barometer to gauge success in reopening America to the degree that it has in the regions that have.

It’s taken the place of ” we don’t have enough ventilators.”  Or, ” we don’t have enough ICU beds.”  Or, “we don’t have enough tests.”

Which brings us to the restart of the sports world.  In general MLB and the NBA have restarted with few problems save a rogue Miami Marlin who broke from protocol and infected a dozen or so Marlin teammates.

The NFL teams are in week two-plus of a delayed fall camp.  As of this AM, the NFL has administered 58,397 COVID-19 tests to 8,573 players between August 12 and August 20.  How many tests were positive?  Zero.

Remember, follow the science.  And, it seems if you do you will find that humans who test negative will continue to test negative while in close proximity.  And,  if they follow mask, social distance, and good hygiene practices when they are elsewhere they will continue to test negative.  The NBA even eliminated the “elsewhere” except for Lou Williams who went elsewhere for a brief gentlemen’s club social (not distance) gathering, but we digress.

So, “following the science” of the above seems to bellow “play ball.”  Except the BIG 10 and PAC 12 pouted, took the ball, and went home at least until Spring.

No one in the PAC 12 has been heard from and it seems that few care.  But, in the BIG 10, they care.  And, they’re mad.  Actually this long ESPN expose’ on how the BIG 10 came to an abrupt U-turn on the road back to football and all fall sports states that players, coaches, parents, some presidents, and administrators aren’t just mad, they’re furious.

So what brought them to this cancellation?  The new commissioner, Kevin Warren, has been nearly silent since the announcement but admitted that he should have been more communicative.  Supposedly the school presidents voted to shut down.  Those same presidents have been quite reluctant to speak on the record about the vote, if one actually took place, and how they individually voted if there was a vote.

The league went from an Aug 5 schedule announcement to an Aug 11 cancellation.  Pancakes don’t flip that fast.

As one Big 10 coach told ESPN, “We’re just left in the dark. Why wouldn’t you communicate? Why wouldn’t you respond? I don’t get it. Something’s just off.”  So much for transparency.

“Been in this league for 20-plus years,” a league source told ESPN. “This has been embarrassing.”

More directly from the article- “Warren on Wednesday sent an open letter providing more details about what the league considered, including troubling trends of COVID-19 spread, contact tracing difficulties and concerns about having reliable rapid tests.”

He went on to reiterate that the decision to postpone “will not be revisited.”   You’ll get no football and you will like it.

The father of one player called the open letter “just a bunch of regurgitation and smoke-blowing.”

All of this makes the state of Iowa the state of confusion.   BIG 10 member Iowa isn’t playing.  Big 12 member Iowa St is.  Make sense?

In a week or two, or in a month or two, the SEC, ACC, and the BIG 12 might regret their attempts to put on the proverbial shoulder pads.  Ask them now and they will tell you that they are following the science.

Does the “follow the science” argument in the passionate BIG 10 and in the dispassionate PAC 12 seem like, well, just a bunch of regurgitation and smoke blowing?

A short time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

We’ll Know Soon Enough

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday was historic for this fractured country.

The Big 10, founded in 1896, has never postponed or canceled an entire football season. Its schools have played through two world wars and the 1918 flu pandemic.  But, the Big 10 Conference won’t be kicking off this fall for the first time ever.

For the first time ever, a woman who identifies as African American (her father is Jamaican born and her mother is Indian born) accepted the offer to be the VP running mate for the presumptive Democrat candidate for President, Joe Biden.

Oh, and the PAC 12, with four of its teams from California, which is the home of Senator Kamala Harris, opted out as well.

What do these decisions have in common?  Maybe nothing.  Or, maybe they reflect the mood of the nation.  If so, Donald Trump’s future as our President is in trouble.  But, it seems, isn’t it always?

Biden said during the debates that if he were nominated he would select a woman as his VP choice.  He one-upped that along the way saying he would select a black woman.  Voila!

So Black Lives Matter to him.  Or, at the very least, black votes matter to him.  Or, the female vote matters to him.   Or, Ms. Harris is the best-qualified candidate to lead our nation should something happen to 76-year-old Sleepy Joe along the way.  Maybe it already has.

As for the Big 10 and PAC 12, young lives must matter to them.  Or, avoiding litigation matters to them.  What happened to “follow the science?”  It will tell you that student-athletes are safest while being isolated on campus and the practice field.

Biden delayed his decision time and again.  The conferences delayed their fall season, then yesterday postponed it until the spring.

Did they all make good decisions?  By November 3rd of 2020, the most challenging year of the 21st century, we’ll know.

If the SEC, Big 12, and ACC have successful seasons, measured by health, fan perception, and TV ratings, the Big 10 and PAC 12 will surely regret their choice.  For now, that choice is perceived by some as the right one and the safe one.

Is the choice of Harris, perceived by some as a safe one given the mood of the nation, the right one?

One dissenter voiced his opinion yesterday.

President Donald Trump’s campaign swiftly responded to Biden’s selection of Harris, branding the pair: “Slow Joe and Phony Kamala.”

“Kamala Harris ran for president by rushing to the radical left, embracing Bernie’s plan for socialized medicine, calling for trillions in new taxes, attacking Joe Biden for racist policies,” the Trump campaign said in a video tweeted by President Trump. “They smartly spotted a phony — but not Joe Biden. He’s not that smart,” the ad continues, before adding Biden “is handing over the reins to Kamala” if the two win in November.

A reduced number of teams NCAA football season kicks off next month.  We think.

The political football is always getting kicked around.  We know.

And we will know if the right decisions were made soon enough.

 

 

 

Go On, Take the Money and Run.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Schools out for summer.  Schools out forever.  So sang Alice Cooper.

We always got the summer part.  We never understood the forever part.

Perhaps, now we do.  During these (are you ready?) new normal, COVID-19 pandemic, #aparttogether, together apart, times are changing.  Unprecedented is the time we are told repeatedly.

And with it, our sacred fall NCAA football season is in peril.

It’s one thing for the Ivy League to cancel its fall sports season.  No one watches them anyway.  How about paying a full year’s tuition to Harvard for virtual classes and no sporting life?  If they keep this up pretty soon they won’t have anyone falsifying records and puffing up resumes to get into that dump, but we digress.

But it’s quite another thing when the Big 10 announced yesterday that at best they will only play an in-conference schedule of football games this fall.  Gone amongst other matchups are Oregon and THE Ohio St. U, and Notre Dame v. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.

Isn’t the appropriate question “why?”  Why drop non-conference games?   The smart money yesterday told us it was about player safety and schedule flexibility.  We think that the smart money forgot to tell us that it’s about money as well.  Isn’t it always?

The argument for safety is that the Big 10 (and when others like the Big 12 and the PAC 12 schedule similarly) can insure across the conference protocols for regular testing and appropriate quarantining while out of conference teams may not have the same.  We can’t have this virus spreading you may have heard.

The argument for flexibility is that you can start the season earlier, later, or provide off weeks within as medical needs warrant.  If you’re only going to have 10 games you’ve found two more weeks within the season plus already scheduled off weeks to rearrange all of it as needed.

Ah, but the argument for money is very real as well.   If you’re going down to ten games, you play bigger opponents every week.  More gate if there is a gate and more TV money follows.  If you’re Michigan St. do you keep Ball St. on the schedule and not pick up a game against Nebraska?  Duh.  Plus you can collect insurance for the canceled Ball St. game.

So, the bottom line is that the Power 5 conferences will find a path, if there is one, to maximize the money.  It’s refreshing that they think his way when the malcontents run around wanting socialism and guerilla gardens in its place, but we digress.

But what about the non Power 5 teams like Ball St.?  Apparently, the answer to the question is the question, “what about them?”  Their guaranteed pay of a million or more to get waxed by the big boys is gone.  If their fans cannot attend their games most all of their revenue is gone too.

Then the question becomes, “are their sports programs gone?”

If they have no football they have no revenue to support the other programs.  If no football, no women’s lacrosse.  For the little guys, is football out for fall?  Is football out, as they currently know it, forever?

Go on, take the money and run.  So sang The Steve Miller Band.