collegefootball

All Aboard in College Station

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one more big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  So far we have shared four of our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Our favorite pick follows after the drum roll provided by the historic Fightin’ Texas A&M Aggie Band.

Texas A&M (7 and 1/2 wins, over -120, under -110)

  • On the surface this choice might surprise.   After all, A&M probably has the hardest schedule in the nation.  They have road games at Clemson, Georgia, and LSU.  And, Alabama rolls in to College Station like a freight train as well.  Their entire schedule is here.
  • One tier down is Auburn, Mississippi St., and South Carolina.  The lower half SEC West foes Arkansas and Ole Miss complete the conference scheduling.
  • Texas St., Lamar, and UTSA out of conference are three very needed breathers interspersed on the fall death march.
  • Jimbo Fisher enters year two of his needed cultural remake of the Aggies.  Kellen Mond improved over the last half of last season.  Jimbo, the QB whisperer, continues to mold the Mo(u)nd of clay.
  • The offense will miss Jace Sternberger at tight end and Erik McCoy at center.  Both will play well on Sunday, not Saturday, this fall.  But the receiving corp is deep and talented.  The running backs are more than serviceable.  The offensive line will be just fine.
  • The defense loses five solid defenders from a tough to run on group.  But, still they return five starters.
  • Fisher’s first recruiting class ranked third nationally.  Expect significant contributions from there as the season unfolds.

After last year’s, last game, seven overtime win over LSU Fisher addressed the group.  He said, “this is the last time we’ll celebrate finishing second in the SEC West.”  The buy in on the sell in is nearly complete.

We expect A&M to upset one of Clemson, Georgia, Alabama,  or LSU.  They are good enough and coached top to bottom quite well.  We expect them to beat Auburn at home and run the table on the rest of the tough Western Division. South Carolina(east opponent #2) isn’t that good and the game is in Aggieland.

A&M will score early and often this year.  Their defense will surrender some early but gain steam late.

We see the Aggies as a 9-3 team best case, and 8-4 worst case.

Give us the over on the Jimbo train that pulled into CS a year ago.

Over and out!

P.S.  LSU’s win total is 8 and 1/2.  We cannot see them as worse than 9-3.  On a hunch (Abby would be so proud) bet take the Tigers at -125 on the over.

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 1

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Year one for Abby’s weekly column was quite a success.  Back by popular demand Abby barks out her thoughts on week one of year two.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).  If the betting line doesn’t meet their tight standards window they punt.

Abby takes a broader view when making her choices.  This can be more difficult.  That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.

For her inaugural journey she won 22 bets, lost 23, and tied one against the Vegas lines.  Importantly, she won 59 of 108 bones wagered.  That is a win percentage of 55%.  Each bone is $11 to win $10.  Thus, she finished plus $51 dollars on the year.  It’s didn’t take down the Vegas Strip, but it did afford a better grade of dog food than Kibbles & Bits.

Perhaps her hunch bets should have been part of the bones wagered.  The hunch bet finished year one with nine great wins versus only one loss.  That record will be difficult to match.

Some of her favorite mascots are back to bark words of encouragement to her.  So, as we near the end of the dog days of summer we begin year two with week one, always a dangerous one to sink your canines into.

Heads up.  Two of these winners go tonight.

Utah -5.5 v. BYU  — Abby smells a wide open PAC 12 race once again.  She’s pawing around with the idea of making the Utes the favorites to win it.  Too many good players vs. not enough makes this an easy week one cover.  Three bones.

FIU v. Tulane -2.0— Way down yonder in New Orleans Abby sees a well coached Green Wave team winning a lot of games this year.  Bonus points if you can name the FIU coach.  Butch Davis!  Double bonus points if you can name the Tulane Head coach.  Willie Fritz! Three bones.

Massachusetts +16.5 v. Rutgers  — Abby has been waiting for any chance to spot a flea.  Rutgers it is.   Should Rutgers be favored over anyone by 16?  Abby thinks Dog Obedience School should only be single digit underdogs to them.  Two Bones.

Colorado St. +13.5 v. Colorado –Rocky Mountain High has taken on a whole new meaning in recent years.  Abby wonders if the oddsmakers are smoking a bit of the state’s #1 crop these days with this line.  The Rams might even make this one interesting late in the evening when everyone has the munchies and are ordering pizza.  One bone.

Oregon +3.5 v. Auburn — This is the best game on an opening day season hunt that makes you want to leave your retrievers at home.   Somehow this comes down to a field goal to make the Ducks the hunted and the Plainsman the hunters.  One bone.

Abby is back at it.  Three dogs and two favs.

Oh, and on a hunch, parlay Kent St and Arizona St over 62 with Utah and BYU under 48.5.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Two Down Under in the SEC

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As we wrote yesterday, the NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s continue today with our favorite year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we continue a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s continue with the march to our favorite pick as we ascend the ladder today with picks numbered 3 and 2.

3.  Kentucky (6 and 1/2 wins, over is -130, under is +100)

  • There is stability at the HC position with Mark Stoops entering year seven leading the Wildcats.  It hasn’t been that way in the Bluegrass State in a long time. But.
  • The stability lost that came with Benny Snell running and All American LB Josh Allen running down ball carriers isn’t easily replaceable.  This is especially true in Lexington.
  • Also, the Wildcats must replace 12 starters as they return an SEC fewest 10 starters in 2019.  All four starters in the secondary left or graduated.
  • While the out of conference schedule looks tame (Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin, and Louisville) by name, don’t sleep on the MAC West Toledo squad.  Further, while it’s fun to kick your instate rivals Louisville while they are down, this winner of this late season match up often surprises.  We see 3-1 here.
  • While the Wildcats draw lowly Arkansas (home) and Mississippi St. (away) from the SEC West, they still must go 4-4 in the SEC overall if they win but 3 of 4 nonconference games to cover 6.5 wins.
  • If you split (likely)the two SEC West opponents, and lose to Georgia, Florida, and Missouri (all likely), can you beat South Carolina there, and Vanderbilt there, and Tennessee at home?

2. Mississippi St. (8 wins, over is +125, under is -155)

  • BBR cashed last year on the under bet on Miss St.  It’s rare that we go back to the same well.  But.
  • The most important position battle that will take place will be at the quarterback position. Southeastern Conference rushing record holder Nick Fitzgerald has completed his five years of service in Starkville.
  • Heading into his junior campaign, Keytaon Thompson is 2-0 as a starter and looks to be the favorite to replace Fitzgerald.  “Looks to be” is different than “is hands down.”  The SEC has several qb’s entering year two and beyond starting for their respective teams.  Year one through this gauntlet will have it’s moments.
  • The Bulldogs have talent on D, but lost some elite talent on D as well, particularly up front where it is a must have.  Three of the starting 11 on defense were picked in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft (safety Johnathan Abram, linemen Montez Sweat, and Jeffery Simmons), and there are 7 starters to replace in total, including the entire front 4.  Only Bama reloads a roster that talented on a yearly basis.
  • We’ll spot them four wins OOC as that is likely.  Cupcakes abound.  But, to cover the over they need five SEC wins in eight opportunities for a nine win total.
  • Home games are Kentucky, LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  That has 2-2 written all over it which means they need to go 3-1 on the SEC road.
  • From 9/28 through 11/ 2 they are at Auburn, off, at Tennessee, home for LSU, at Texas A and M, and at Arkansas.  At best those four roadies have 2-2 written all over them as well.  A push is possible then, but a misstep is likely, making under the choice.
  • We don’t love the price at minus 155, but we love under 8 as the outcome.

Tomorrow we’ll feature our chosen one (not the Prez) and give you a few random picks as well.

Our Crystal Ball on Pooka and Cristobal

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big Hooray?  HOORAY!  Of course if you watched last weekend’s very abbreviated scheduled head liner, you might have thought it was a head scratcher at best.  Florida outlasted Miami in a mistake filled, sloppy tackling, turnover prone, penalty laden affair.  It was a forgettable game.  So forget it.

Let’s get to our favorite head scratching year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we begin a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s kick off with picks we like plenty enough to bet, and ascend in the next 72 hours towards our most favorite ones.

5.  Kansas ( 3 wins, over +130, under -160)

  • Pooka (best first name in the FBS) Williams, an All American Freshman last year, was suspended in the off season for domestic abuse.  Shame on him.  Kansas reinstated him after a six month time out just in time for the fall practices and now games.  Shame on them.  But, if you like the over this is why you bet it.  Pooka single handedly kept Kansas in games last year.
  • At LSU Les Miles often took more talent onto the field than his opposition.  And, he lost more often with that talent than he should have.  But, he beat Oklahoma two out of his four years at Oklahoma St.  Back then he often took less talent and won over more talent in the Big 12.  Having less talent isn’t a problem for Les this year as he will likely enter 10 of 12 games as a slight to huge underdog.
  • Bad news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.  Good news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.
  • The two games that they will be favored in are the first two of the season as they host Indiana St. and Coastal Carolina.
  • Win those two and you need to find two more to win the bet, or one more to at least push. Along the way they host West Virginia (new head coach), Kansas St.(new head coach and rival), and Baylor (not too too good).   We like them to win two of the three in some form or fashion.
  • The payout of 10 to win 13 is appealing.

4.  Oregon (9 wins, over +105, under -130)

  • Head Coach Mario Cristobal enters year two of his head coaching stint with the Ducks.  We like the upside v. the betting line in year two of coaches that we think are capable of making a leap forward.
  • Cristobal was Saban’s offensive line coach and recruiting coordinator for three years at Bama.  The pedigree from his coaching tree is mostly fruitful.  Saban has had way more Jimbo Fisher’s go on to coach other teams than he has had Jim McElwain’s.  If he’s good enough for Ole Nick, he’s good enough for us in a wide open Pac 12.
  • The mighty Ducks don’t play a mighty schedule.  Preseason rankings mean little but that won’t stop us from using them to make a point.  Oregon opens v #16 Auburn at a neutral sight this weekend.  The rest of the schedule has three ranked teams, at #13 Washington,  hosting #23 Washington St. and at #25 Stanford.
  • At currently unranked Arizona St. in week 10 could be a make or break game for the over bet.  But, beat Auburn, and we are talking about a quantum leap forward, not a leap forward.
  • Ten returning starters on offense, led by a potential top draft pick in Justin Herbert makes us lean to the over.   Another seven starters are back on defense.
  • The Ducks made a great hire in bringing Avalos over from Boise State.  Cristobal watched Saban salty defense close up in practice every day.  In the PAC 10 a salty defense can go a long way.

Tomorrow we’ll head south for our pick #’s 3 and 2.  We think the two choices above will put your checking account balance heading north.