coronavirus

This Time It’s….

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

This time it’s different.  Actually, every time it’s different.

On the medical side there has been SARS, H1NI, Ebola, the Hong Kong flu and many more outbreaks, quickly spreading viruses, epidemics, and even an occasional pandemic.

On the economic side there has been The Great Depression, many recessions, runaway late seventies inflation, the Arab Oil Embargo, the dot com bubble, 9/11, the 2008-09 financial crisis,  and many more significant to severe downturns.

And now it’s COVID-19.  It’s the Coronavirus.  It’s the Wuhan Virus.

BBR leadership and its staff make no claims to being a medical expert nor an economic guru.  We do, however, have significant experience in watching human behavior through most of these tough times.

Experience teaches us that this too will pass.  But it sure doesn’t feel like it, does it?

We want improvement.  We want answers.  We want results.  We want to get away mentally.  We want to get away physically.  We want.  We want.

This time it’s the same.  It’s just that every time we get into a very rough patch like this one it feels different.

The problem is we can’t see it.  The problem is that we really didn’t see it coming.  “It won’t affect me!”  And, we won’t know that it’s gone until someone with a white long coat and a tie tells us it’s gone.

Actually this time it’s the same.   Actually every time it’s the same.

We just want to wash our hands and want to be done with this.  And, we should want to-wash our hands that is.

It’s always darkest before the dawn.  The sun will eventually come up.  It always does.

March Mad Mess

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you dribble a basketball on a hardwood floor and no one sees it, is it still an NBA game?  It is.  It’s just far less of a moneymaker.

And it just might happen.  These days aren’t normal days.  These days are rightfully consumed with controlling the North American outbreak of the COVID-19 virus.  And, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, who has all but embraced sports gambling, is very near needing to push his chips to the middle of the existing arenas.  Or, he could fold the chairs, close the doors, and wash his hands on the way out.

Discussions in the league office occur daily on the best way to continue to play the games, engage the fans, and minimize the risk of being accused of putting economics ahead of players and fans.  Several options are seriously being discussed.

One option is to move games to the city of what should be the visiting team if the risk of spread in that city is far lower than the home team’s city.  Take Golden State.  Please.  The Warrior’s home games gross about $3.75 million.  But the greater Bay Area and its governments might soon dictate that any sporting event played in a closed area be done so without any fans in attendance.

Other cities could soon follow.  Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine recommended that indoor teams in that state play without fans for the immediate future. The Cleveland Cavaliers are on a six-game road trip and don’t return home until March 24.  They have some time to evaluate the recommendation and decide how to proceed.

LeBron James weighed in last week when asked about playing in an empty arena. “I play for the fans; that’s what it’s all about,” James said. “If I show up to the arena and there ain’t no fans there, I ain’t playing.”

Upon further review, James had a beautiful verbal crossover dribble on the subject yesterday.  “If they feel that it’s best for the safety of the players, safety of the franchise, safety of the league to mandate that, then we’ll all listen to it.”  How noble of him to now listen to a mandate. Maybe “adhere” is just a three-point shot away.  And, how nice of him to speak for “all.”  Kings do that.

He also spoke when he lectured Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey back in October.  Remember Morey had tweeted out support for Hong Kong protesters, and essentially against the Chinese government.  Way back then James said that Morey was “misinformed and not educated on the situation.”

Now the day is very near that James and the entire league that all but defended China (and its immense economic effect on the league) might play in empty arenas due to a virus that started in China.  The bats that came home to roost are now in the soup.

And, March Madness is set to tipoff.  We should ask LeBron if we could rename it March Mad Mess.

 

 

Perception May Not Be Reality

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday we labeled “Tough Monday.”  One week ago most everyone agreed was “Super Tuesday.”   Joe Biden was at first the lone dissenter to that mantra, but after the results came in from about 15 states he quickly changed his mind about the public perception of him.  What will today bring us?

There is perception and there is reality.  When the perception becomes so strong that it changes behavior, a new day has dawned.

Once upon a time it was considered in style, even sexy, to smoke cigarettes.  The surgeon general told us enough times that smoking will kill you.  Our perception of smoking changed to the point where we frown upon anyone who smokes.

Stated plainly, if everyone thinks the COVID-19, aka the Coronavirus, will do them great harm or even kill them, then human behavior is dramatically changed.  If you don’t believe BBR, then head to your local food or drug store.  Try buying hand soap, cough or cold medicines, or egads, toilet paper.  When is the last time you shook hands with anyone?  Check your 401k lately?

Human behavior has dramatically changed until our perception changes.  We cast no judgment.  It’s better to be safe than sorry we heard.

However, we cannot help but wonder if this has reached the point of being a bit overblown at least in the U.S.  We highly recommend that you take three minutes and read this link.  We’ve found it to be the most unemotional, fact-based, and intuitive piece on the virus that we have read.

In the meantime, we cannot help but wonder as well that people would actually (on TV and Twitter yesterday) find the time to debate the “insensitivity” of calling COVID-19 the Wuhan Virus.  Chris Hayes, MSNBC’s resident word policeman, called it a social injustice.

Good Lord people, get over yourself.  What about Peking Duck?  If you don’t want the blame for the virus, you don’t get credit for the duck anymore either.

Was your perception of that insensitive?  We hope it wasn’t.  But, if it was, so be it.  It’s our perception.

Please wash your hands to help keep the virus away.  And, please wash them again of this overblown politically correct BS.

 

It’s a Tough Monday

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We wonder.  The Coronavirus has the world gripped in fear and firmly in its nasty little paws.

How bad would it be if you were stuck on a cruise ship that has over 50 cases and counting and no cities or states want you?  Oakland stepped up and now you step off of the confinement of the ship into a different confinement with your fellow passengers to see if you will become the latest confirmed case.  It’s a two-week mind game that you hope to not have to play.

How bad would it be if your business was sailing cruise ships?  The US State Department issued a statement this weekend advising all citizens to avoid cruise ships for their own protection from the virus.  Our wild guess is that future bookings might be down 80% or more.

How bad will this entire surreal medical emergency get?  On one hand, it seems (assuming that the Chinese government is telling the truth) that the spread of cases in China has slowed a good bit.  On the other hand, the cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran seem to be accelerating.

How bad is it in Italy?  Sixteen million citizens are now being self quarantined in Northern Italy.  The plan to do so got leaked.  And with it many citizens rushed to get out of the quarantined zone.  So much for quarantining it.  The plan got leaked and so did the virus.  Italian stocks on the blue-chip FTSE MIB initially failed to open Monday along with other European markets. When the index did open, stocks were trading down 2,290 points, or about 11% lower.   Italy has over 7500 confirmed cases and 366 deaths and counting.

The NBA told its teams to prepare for playing games in empty areas to try to help slow the transmission.  All Italian sporting events will do just that till April at a minimum.  Japan is the host country for the 2020 Summer Games in late July.  There are a lot of yen bet that the torch never gets lit.

How bad is the perception?  In a word, it is terrible.  How bad is the reality?  That’s the unknown and hence the fear which is now bordering on panic.

We suppose as the weather warms, our immune systems do what they do, or if a vaccine were to be developed that this too shall somehow pass.

Why does it feel different this time?

We wonder.

We hope.

Stay strong.

It’s a Crazy Time

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Co-host of The View Meghan McCain said, “It’s a crazy time.”

Co-host Whoopi Goldberg had just pitched former President Barack Obama for the vice president slot on the Democratic Party’s ticket with 2020 presidential hopeful Joe Biden.  Goldberg said, “I’m sorry. I’m just going to do my crazy right now.”  Whoopee for Whoopi.

And so it is.

Meanwhile back at The White House, President Trump misses his orange-tinted mug.   “I haven’t touched my face in weeks,” he said. “In weeks. I miss it.”  Coronavirus task force leader Dr. Deborah Birx seemed encouraged.

And so it goes.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) took a dig at Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) after a Fox News segment made it sound as if the Massachusetts senator stood as the last female in the Democrat primary race, referring to her as a “fake indigenous woman of color.”  “Is it because you believe a fake indigenous woman of color is ‘real’ and the real indigenous woman of color in this race is fake?” she asked.  Ouch!  Gabbard has garnered exactly one delegate in the count that is over one thousand at this point.

And on.

Meanwhile, Warren contacted Bernie Sanders yesterday and informed him that she would take the proper amount of time to decide whether she would continue to drive in his lane or fold her tent.  Rush Limbaugh fill in Mark Steyn equated that to ” like someone giving me a tumbler of scotch and a pistol in my parlor, and saying ‘take your time, you’ll make the right decision.'”

And, then there was Joe Biden.

Biden, fresh off of a strong Super Tuesday, gained Mayor Mini Mike Bloomberg’s endorsement for the Democratic Party nomination.  Mayor Mike is 600 million lighter in the wallet after his abysmal failure of a run at the nomination.  Heck, Bloomberg even called Biden a good friend.  It’s tough to beat the smell of newly printed money.  Biden seems to have gotten his sea legs under him after on Monday confusing Tuesday with Thursday, and then on Tuesday confusing his wife with his sister.

The MSNBC crew previewed (promoted) an upcoming NBC Today Show interview.  On it Biden responded to “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie’s question, “Do you think the president is rooting for Sanders?” “I don’t think the president wants to face me. I will beat him, period. Period. He’s done everything in his power— he’s even risked his presidency because he doesn’t want to face me.”

And so?

What did Wall Street think of the step back that Wall Street basher Bernie Sanders took on Super Tuesday?  It rallied Wednesday in a big way up 1000 Dow points due to the reduced odds that a self-proclaimed Socialist could make the political circus more than the three rings that it already is.

And then?

And then came Thursday, which in spite of Biden’s efforts to label it “Super,” doesn’t seem to have a bright future.  The Dow futures are down 600 points plus this AM.

And finally?

Hopefully, the Corona Virus is greatly slowed or contained soon for obvious reasons.  It would also allow Trump to touch his face again.  After all, his makeup base and his political base know that orange is the new red, white, and blue.

And in America today, crazy is the new normal.

 

The Under Card

Posted on by thependulumswings staff
  1. What’s on everyone’s mind on the national scene these days?  It’s Kobe Bryant and his daughter’s unfortunate passing.  It’s the threat of the coronavirus spreading in the U.S.  It’s the Senate Impeachment Trial.  And, it’s the dwindling field and the jockeying for position in the Democratic race to gain the 2020 party’s nomination.

What’s the goal of the trial?  It’s two-fold.  It’s an attempt to deny Trump a chance to run for reelection.  And, it’s an incessant campaign to weaken his campaign.  And, the goal of the nomination process is to get to the candidate that most from the left feel has the best chance to take back the White House of course.  Opinions vary as to what the ultimate success of any of these plans might be.

But what gets little national play until way closer to the November election is the undercard.  The undercard is comprised of all of the state by state races for the House and the Senate.  The Democrats regained the House in 2018.  They have their eyes on the Senate as well.  Defeat Trump, and voila!  The keys to all three kingdoms are yours.

However, Lee Corso might say, “not so fast my friend!”  A great source tells BBR that they feel quite confident that the GOP has a finely tuned strategic plan of their own.  And, they think regaining the House majority is well within reach.  Wowza.  Round one.  Ding. Ding.

Thirty House Democrats are up for reelection in districts won by Trump in 2016.  Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN), is one of the 30.   He voted against both articles of impeachment. Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), who represents another such Trump-won district, voted for the first article, “Abuse of Power,” but against the second, “Obstruction of Congress.” Another now-former Democrat, Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, actually quit the Democrat Party and joined the elephants over his opposition to the impeachment push against Trump.

All great plans just need oxygen and money.   The Democrats seem to be providing the oxygen with their nonstop assault of the President inside the halls of Congress.  What about the money?  It sounds like the elephants are charging.

Across his four fundraising entities, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and his team raised $52.3 million in 2019. That is over $8 million more than the Republicans did during Paul Ryan’s previous record run up in the first year of President Donald Trump’s administration back in 2017.

Like him or not, Newt Gingrich is a wise political owl.  He likes what he sees.  “Kevin McCarthy’s tireless work ethic has produced a new dynamic, united, and aggressive House Republican Party,” Gingrich told Breitbart News. “Thanks to his efforts, Republicans enter 2020 from a position of strength—with the necessary resources, recruits, and message to win.”

Is it really possible that on their way to the Democrats’ House, Senate, and Presidential victory party a Republican sweep of the three got in the way?  Some folks sound pretty confident.

Where there is a will there is a way.  And, that way is being paved with lots of green cash.

If 2016 didn’t teach us that the impossible is possible, what will?

Ladies and Gentlemen, let’s get ready to rumble.