footballwagers

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk, Part 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Yesterday we updated the first 3 of our 5 picks.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested yesterday) to review the final 2.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk.

2.  Mississippi St. under 8 wins, bet $155 to win $100, current record 3-5

– After a 3-1 start against two cupcakes and Kentucky, the Bulldogs hit the proverbial wall.  They have lost four in a row as the schedule stiffened.

– Head Coach Joe Moorhead has to be scratching his head.  And, Bulldog alumni must be scratching theirs as well.  And, the mascot must be scratching his………  Dan Mullen took this program to high points not seen around StarkVegas in many moons.  Moorhead is in a tough spot following that act.  The SEC West is tough.  Recruiting to Starkville is tougher.

– Worst outcome.  There is no worst case for the bet unless a tornado hits Starkville (which could cause improvements actually)and cancels a game or a portion thereof nullifying the bet.

– Best outcome.  State finishes all four contests with a win or a loss.  The bet is already a win as the win total maxes out at seven even if State runs the tables.

– Outlook.  With a road trip to Arkansas, a layup (Abilene Christian University-seriously?), a loss to Bama, and an Egg Bowl battle with Ole Miss looming, we smell rotten eggs at 2-2.  A 5-7 record is a win for BBR and a big step back for Moorhead and staff.

– Prediction.  Moorhead gets one more year to right the ship, and the bet has already won $100.

1.Texas A&M over 7 1/2 wins, bet $120 to win $100, current record 5-3

– With arguably the toughest schedule in the nation A&M has won the games they were favored in and lost those that they were underdogs.

– In year two of his iron clad, ten year contract HC Jimbo Fisher, aka the QB whisperer, hasn’t whispered the right sweet nothings into the ear of second year starting QB Kellon Mond.  Hence, the hoped for leap forward has been sideways.

Worst Outcome.  A&M continues to win the winnable ones and lose the expected ones and the bet loses by 1/2 game as they finish 7-5.

Best Outcome.  The Aggies upset either Georgia or LSU on the road and win the easier remaining home games and they finish 8-4.

Outlook.  This one is tough.  We thought that they would beat Auburn which would have gotten the likely record to 8-4, but they didn’t.  SC beat Georgia in Athens two weeks ago.  Can it happen again?  Sure.  If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, thereby knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture, we’ll then predict an Aggie late season win.  If Georgia has to beat the Aggies to get to ATL for the SEC Championship game we think they will hold serve between the hedges.

Prediction.  We’ve stuck our neck out this far, why not once more?  Aggies beat UTSA and SC at home and Georgia there.  LSU beats A&M to close the season.  Aggies go 8-4 and the bet wins $100.

If our latest predictions hold true a 4-1 record and a nice payoff await.  Worst case we are probably looking at 3-2 and a positive payoff.

One prediction we can safely make is that we will be back next year with more season long predictions v. the win total.  The bet never fails to entertain, and it lasts all season long.  Well it does unless you’re Joe Moorhead, thankfully.

 

 

 

Two Down Under in the SEC

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As we wrote yesterday, the NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s continue today with our favorite year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we continue a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s continue with the march to our favorite pick as we ascend the ladder today with picks numbered 3 and 2.

3.  Kentucky (6 and 1/2 wins, over is -130, under is +100)

  • There is stability at the HC position with Mark Stoops entering year seven leading the Wildcats.  It hasn’t been that way in the Bluegrass State in a long time. But.
  • The stability lost that came with Benny Snell running and All American LB Josh Allen running down ball carriers isn’t easily replaceable.  This is especially true in Lexington.
  • Also, the Wildcats must replace 12 starters as they return an SEC fewest 10 starters in 2019.  All four starters in the secondary left or graduated.
  • While the out of conference schedule looks tame (Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin, and Louisville) by name, don’t sleep on the MAC West Toledo squad.  Further, while it’s fun to kick your instate rivals Louisville while they are down, this winner of this late season match up often surprises.  We see 3-1 here.
  • While the Wildcats draw lowly Arkansas (home) and Mississippi St. (away) from the SEC West, they still must go 4-4 in the SEC overall if they win but 3 of 4 nonconference games to cover 6.5 wins.
  • If you split (likely)the two SEC West opponents, and lose to Georgia, Florida, and Missouri (all likely), can you beat South Carolina there, and Vanderbilt there, and Tennessee at home?

2. Mississippi St. (8 wins, over is +125, under is -155)

  • BBR cashed last year on the under bet on Miss St.  It’s rare that we go back to the same well.  But.
  • The most important position battle that will take place will be at the quarterback position. Southeastern Conference rushing record holder Nick Fitzgerald has completed his five years of service in Starkville.
  • Heading into his junior campaign, Keytaon Thompson is 2-0 as a starter and looks to be the favorite to replace Fitzgerald.  “Looks to be” is different than “is hands down.”  The SEC has several qb’s entering year two and beyond starting for their respective teams.  Year one through this gauntlet will have it’s moments.
  • The Bulldogs have talent on D, but lost some elite talent on D as well, particularly up front where it is a must have.  Three of the starting 11 on defense were picked in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft (safety Johnathan Abram, linemen Montez Sweat, and Jeffery Simmons), and there are 7 starters to replace in total, including the entire front 4.  Only Bama reloads a roster that talented on a yearly basis.
  • We’ll spot them four wins OOC as that is likely.  Cupcakes abound.  But, to cover the over they need five SEC wins in eight opportunities for a nine win total.
  • Home games are Kentucky, LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  That has 2-2 written all over it which means they need to go 3-1 on the SEC road.
  • From 9/28 through 11/ 2 they are at Auburn, off, at Tennessee, home for LSU, at Texas A and M, and at Arkansas.  At best those four roadies have 2-2 written all over them as well.  A push is possible then, but a misstep is likely, making under the choice.
  • We don’t love the price at minus 155, but we love under 8 as the outcome.

Tomorrow we’ll feature our chosen one (not the Prez) and give you a few random picks as well.

Our Crystal Ball on Pooka and Cristobal

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big Hooray?  HOORAY!  Of course if you watched last weekend’s very abbreviated scheduled head liner, you might have thought it was a head scratcher at best.  Florida outlasted Miami in a mistake filled, sloppy tackling, turnover prone, penalty laden affair.  It was a forgettable game.  So forget it.

Let’s get to our favorite head scratching year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we begin a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s kick off with picks we like plenty enough to bet, and ascend in the next 72 hours towards our most favorite ones.

5.  Kansas ( 3 wins, over +130, under -160)

  • Pooka (best first name in the FBS) Williams, an All American Freshman last year, was suspended in the off season for domestic abuse.  Shame on him.  Kansas reinstated him after a six month time out just in time for the fall practices and now games.  Shame on them.  But, if you like the over this is why you bet it.  Pooka single handedly kept Kansas in games last year.
  • At LSU Les Miles often took more talent onto the field than his opposition.  And, he lost more often with that talent than he should have.  But, he beat Oklahoma two out of his four years at Oklahoma St.  Back then he often took less talent and won over more talent in the Big 12.  Having less talent isn’t a problem for Les this year as he will likely enter 10 of 12 games as a slight to huge underdog.
  • Bad news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.  Good news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.
  • The two games that they will be favored in are the first two of the season as they host Indiana St. and Coastal Carolina.
  • Win those two and you need to find two more to win the bet, or one more to at least push. Along the way they host West Virginia (new head coach), Kansas St.(new head coach and rival), and Baylor (not too too good).   We like them to win two of the three in some form or fashion.
  • The payout of 10 to win 13 is appealing.

4.  Oregon (9 wins, over +105, under -130)

  • Head Coach Mario Cristobal enters year two of his head coaching stint with the Ducks.  We like the upside v. the betting line in year two of coaches that we think are capable of making a leap forward.
  • Cristobal was Saban’s offensive line coach and recruiting coordinator for three years at Bama.  The pedigree from his coaching tree is mostly fruitful.  Saban has had way more Jimbo Fisher’s go on to coach other teams than he has had Jim McElwain’s.  If he’s good enough for Ole Nick, he’s good enough for us in a wide open Pac 12.
  • The mighty Ducks don’t play a mighty schedule.  Preseason rankings mean little but that won’t stop us from using them to make a point.  Oregon opens v #16 Auburn at a neutral sight this weekend.  The rest of the schedule has three ranked teams, at #13 Washington,  hosting #23 Washington St. and at #25 Stanford.
  • At currently unranked Arizona St. in week 10 could be a make or break game for the over bet.  But, beat Auburn, and we are talking about a quantum leap forward, not a leap forward.
  • Ten returning starters on offense, led by a potential top draft pick in Justin Herbert makes us lean to the over.   Another seven starters are back on defense.
  • The Ducks made a great hire in bringing Avalos over from Boise State.  Cristobal watched Saban salty defense close up in practice every day.  In the PAC 10 a salty defense can go a long way.

Tomorrow we’ll head south for our pick #’s 3 and 2.  We think the two choices above will put your checking account balance heading north.