joeburrow

Full Tilt

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Is it safe to say that three of the top 6-8 quarterbacks in the NFL are in the conference championship games this weekend?

We’re talking about Hurts, Burrow, and Mahomes of course.  Purdy has been a pretty good surprise, but the resume is quite light at this point.

That the AFC has two great QBs in the final two while the NFC has only one is no surprise either.  When you run down from great to not so regardless of the conference affiliation you’ll find that the AFC is stacked and the NFC is wanting.

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, and Herbert are a strong top five for the AFC.  Throw in Lawrence, Tagovailoa, Watson, Jones, and Pickett as emerging upside types and the top ten is relatively equally as impressive.

Notice that absent from this AFC list are Wilson and Carr.

Wilson is a Super Bowl winner and a nine-time Pro Bowl selection who has thrown for over 40k yards.  He had a bad year and might be past his prime and then some, however.

Carr is a three-time Pro Bowler and amassed 35k passing yards.  He’s done being a Raider and might be headed to the NFC.

Ah, the NFC.

Any NFC list would start with Brady and Rodgers arguably the two best in the last 15 years regardless of the conference (sorry Drew Brees).

But, is Brady done with football?  Is Rodgers done with Green Bay?  Is Green Bay done with Rodgers?  Let’s go with no, yes, and yes for the sake of the following argument.

What if Brady replaced Carr in Vegas?  Whether you view Brady’s glass as half empty or half full it’s still better than half of the quarterbacks in the entire league.

What if Rodgers went to, say, the New York J-E-T-S?  Jets, Jets, Jets.   He’s still easily a top-ten NFL quarterback.

Those what if’s would tilt the AFC position of dominance at the most important position in football to an unprecedented level.

Compare all of the above to the NFC’s Hurts, Prescott, Cousins, Stafford, and Jones and you’ll see the tilt lite light up like the old 1970s pinball machines.

Throw in the next five who throw for NFC teams.  Goff, Wilson, Murray, Marietta, and, well, and, umm Geno Smith?  Jeez.

If you want to jump deeper into the imbalance fast forward to the NFL Draft this Spring.  The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts, both AFC teams with picks # 2 and #4 respectively, will almost certainly draft high Round One QBs.

Bryce Young and CJ Stoud very likely will hear Roger Goodell announce that their immediate future will be in the AFC.

Super Bowls are won far more often with great quarterbacking than with complimentary quarterbacking.

The AFC is loaded with “win because of’s.”  The NFC is loaded with “win with and win in spite of’s.”

Jalen Hurts and Philly might put a hurting on the AFC in a few weeks.

After that, it looks like the AFC will put a hurting on the NFC for a few years.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Random

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s February 1st, the middle of the winter.  You need some warmth and comfort.  What better way is there to get that than to digest some Ten Piece Nuggets?

They’re served one at a time and randomly below.

  1.  Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau says that he tested positive for Covid-19.  Is he hiding from the convoy of truckers in Ottawa who are opposed to the jab, while he is vaxxed, boosted, and positive all at once? The irony.  It says here that he tucked his tail and ran.   He blasted them via a taped message calling their actions “racist” amongst other lies about their cause.  It’s always a good day to play the race card.  Should Canada insist that he go get tested for conniving cowardness as well?
  2.  If Trudeau and California Governor Gavin Newsom switched jobs in the middle of the night how long would it take for anyone to notice?  Newsom was caught on camera multiple times during the Rams/49ers NFC Championship Game yet again thumbing his non-masked nose at Californians who are under his mandate to mask up while indoors at work, events, and school.   He denied doing so.  Cameras don’t lie, people do.
  3.  While Joe Rogan apologized for exercising his right to free speech yesterday, Whoppi Goldberg exercised hers on The View.  The longtime co-host claimed the Holocaust “isn’t about race,” adding, “it’s about man’s inhumanity to man.”  There was no joy in Joy Behar’s face.
  4. By afternoon she apologized.  “On today’s show, I said the Holocaust is not about race, but about man’s inhumanity to man. I should’ve said it is about both.  I’m sorry for the hurt I have caused.”  That’s how you cancel the Cancel Culture Cops.
  5. And, rather than trying to cancel Rogan, why not ask to appear on his podcast?  He goes in-depth is why.  Superficial answers get followed up.  Fauci should be the first guest.  Rand Paul would jump at the chance.
  6. It was a busy Monday at the White House as well.  President Biden took to the podium to tell the assembled press that his team was trying to “figure out” why so many illegal immigrants were crossing our southern border.  Could it be that there is no enforcement and upon entry you get a free plane ride to a state of Biden’s choosing?  Stand-up comedy is not dead after all.
  7. Unvaxxed truckers cannot enter, but unvaxxed illegal immigrants with no IDs can.   Maybe next week old Joe can try to “figure out” why our supply chain is failing.  Could it be partially due to so few trucks crossing our borders due to the vax mandate?
  8. At least there’s good news for parents on the vax front.  Pfizer and BioNTech plan to submit a request for emergency use authorization for their COVID-19 vaccine in children six months to 5 years old as soon as Tuesday.  It’s even better news for the under-two crowd.  Pfizer reports sufficient immune effectiveness with only two jabs.  But, if you’re three or more you’ll need three or more jabs.  Approval from the “lost its mind” FDA could come early next month.
  9.  Meanwhile, several countries seem to be regaining their senses.  Today Finland joins England, Ireland, and Denmark in ending all covid restrictions.  Remember when the US was known as the home of the free and the brave?  Maybe in two more weeks after we flatten the curve we can join the crowd.
  10.  Changing gears, can the NFL be any hotter?  Four unbelievable games two weekends ago gave way to two nail-biters this past weekend.  We’ve not seen the ratings but we’re old enough to remember when we were told that the NFL was going to suffer for its activism, etc.   Doubtful.  Very.  The “home” LA Rams have been instilled as an early four-point pick over the “visiting” Cincinnatti Bengals.  Joe B. has them right where he wants them.

Less Zoom, doom, and gloom are right around the corner.

 

Think Inside the Box

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Surely once or thrice you’ve been asked to think outside of the box.

A wise CEO once asked a group a few moons ago to think inside of the box.  Why?  To get their attention is one reason.  And, to realize where you are, where you want to go, and how to get there is another.

So, where is America right now, and more importantly for Republicans where is their party in the minds of Americans?

America is seriously divided on a plethora of issues right down party lines.  Each side asks that we “come together as a country” frequently.  What they mean is “agree with us and all will be well.”  The ask doesn’t even sound sincere and it certainly doesn’t work that way.

Republicans are thought of and/or portrayed as white, old, stodgy, racist, set in their ways, and out of touch.

What to do?  How about doing some things that are progressive and democratic at the same time yet reflect conservative views?

Say what?  Well, it’s a lot different than it may sound at first blush.

Progressive also means “happening or developing gradually or in stages; proceeding step by step.” Democratic also means “relating to or supporting democracy or its principles.”

Try just a few on for size.

How about getting all new leadership after the midterms regardless of the outcomes?  Isn’t it past time that old Mitch McConnell for one, arguably the biggest RINO of them all step aside? Just last week he mumbled, “if you look at the statistics, African American voters are voting in just as high a percentage as Americans,” implying that Black voters are not Americans.

On Friday, he said he “inadvertently omitted the word ‘almost,’” but then after the news conference ended, he returned to the microphones to correct himself one more time. “The omitted word is ‘all,’ not ‘almost,'” he said. “Sorry.”

Biden is worse tripping over his own tongue, but not by much.  The elephants need a fresh face, voice, and view.

How about having all 50 Republican Senators vote for the SCOTUS black female nominee?  Let’s assume that she is qualified, regardless if opinions vary if she is the most qualified.  The vote is supposed to be cast on qualifications, not political ideology.

Madame VP Harris would cast the 51st vote for her confirmation regardless, but that’s not really the point.  The point would be that America could look at this as “progress.”  Take the lead in celebrating her nomination.  Maybe even a RINO or two could sell it that way as “coming together as a country.”

Eleven Democrats voted for Clarence Thomas.  One was not then-Senator Biden, but we digress.   Thirty-nine Republicans voted for Ruth Bader Ginsberg.   Only one Democrat (don’t Build Back Better Joe Manchin) voted for Brett Kavanaugh.

And, how about looking ahead to 2024?  If you support true conservatism, you’d support it regardless of who espouses it, wouldn’t you?  Nominate the right presidential candidate from the right.  Then choose Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat in name only as your VP running mate.

Sound crazy?  It might drive perpetually in mourning Morning Joe crazy.  But, listen to what she believes in and you’ll swear that she’s further right than any Bush, Graham, McConnell, Crenshaw, Romney, or Rubio ever sounded.

It is after all principles, not sheep in wolves’ clothing that matter most, isn’t it?  And, who wants to be the first Democrat to stand up and say that nominating a Dem female is a bad idea?

Progressive and democratic is the new conservative.

Do you say it can never happen?

Don’t tell Joe Burrow “never.”

Orange and black is the new AFC Champion.

 

 

After Further Review- AFC North

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did the new NFL playoff expanded format for 2020 and beyond slip right by you?

The NFL changed its highly approved of, very fair, and long-standing playoff tradition.  It’s the first playoff format change since 1990.

John Madden used to say that December football was different than the months prior.  He said it’s because good teams turn up the effort and solidify their playoff spots or division championships, while average to bad teams play out the string.

Seven teams out of 16 in each conference now make the postseason tourney.  With five or six games left, the possibilities are numerous.

As Thanksgiving approaches, we decided to take a few days this week and next to take a team by team look at each division to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

That series continues today with a look at the AFC North.

The Past

– Pittsburgh is one of, if not the model franchise in the NFL and for that matter all of sports.  One family has owned it for its existence.  The Steelers have had only three head coaches (Noll, Cowher, and Tomlin) since 1969.  They have won six Super Bowls in the modern era tied with the NE Patriots.  Their eight appearances are second only to New England’s 11.

– The Baltimore Ravens (once they moved from Cleveland) have been worthy adversaries to the Steelers for the last twenty years.  Ozzie Newsome is on the shortlist of best GM/ Presidents in the NFL.  They know defensive talent when they see it and they know how to deploy it.

– Cincinnati has had spurts, but has cheap minded ownership hence a nonsustainable model for winning.  Cleveland has been Cleveland.

The Outlook

–  The outlook prior to the season had Baltimore as the frontrunner coming off of their strong 2019 season and returning Lamar Jackson and most all of the pieces of a good to real good D.

– Pittsburgh is always good (see above), but questions about Ben Rothlisberger’s age and health, a continual transition at the skill positions, and at times a leaky D made them a bit of a question mark.

– Cleveland has been assembling talent over the last few years, but had yet to pull it together.  It’s hard to change a multi-decade culture.

– Cincinnatti lacked talent from top to bottom and gave up on Andy Dalton after years of mediocrity at the position.  They had the first pick in last years’ draft for a reason.

The Present

2020 AFC North Standings
TEAM W L T PCT PF PA
Pittsburgh 9 0 0 1.000 271 171
Baltimore 6 3 0 .667 244 165
Cleveland 6 3 0 .667 216 244
Cincinnati 2 6 1 .278 204 250

 

– Raise your hand if you had the Steelers as the lone undefeated team in the NFL a week prior to Thanksgiving.  They’re an average offense statistically, but they’re ranked third overall in team defense, first in special teams, first in third-down conversions on offense, third in turnovers allowed, and second in penalty yards against.  There are a lot of ways to win a game and the Steelers exploit that.

– Raven’s fans might be disappointed sitting at 6-3.  While the division might be out of reach, the losses are to the Chiefs, the Steelers in a close one, and to a desperate at home New England team last week.  The defense is, as it always is, darn good giving up only 18 ppg and ranks first in all of the NFL in overall defensive metrics.

– Browns fans might be ecstatic sitting at 6-3.  But scoring 216 points while giving up 244 is a telling stat.  Their six wins came against Cincinnati (twice) Washington, Dallas, Houston, and Indy (the lone quality win).  Their offense has been held to six points by the Ravens and the Raiders, and to seven by the Steelers.

– Cincinnati isn’t good enough to win many games, and they haven’t.  Jimmies and Joes usually beat x’s and o’s. And Cincinnatti only has one Joe worth mentioning and that is Joe Burrow.  He needs an offensive line and soon and he’ll be able to will them to more victories.  And Cincy needs plenty more Jimmies on D.

The Prediction(s)

– The Steelers will lose somewhere along the way.  Don Shula, RIP, will smile from above. The Ravens visit on Thanksgiving night.  But very often a front runner like this 9-0 team is destined for the number one seed and a deep playoff run.  We’re calling the Steelers 14-2, North Division Champions, and the number one AFC seed.  But, we think they’ll fall a bit shy of yet another Super Bowl appearance.

– The Ravens are tough to gauge.  Playing from ahead they are one tough team.  If they trail can Lamar and company win one big one when they need to do so?  They have the Browns, Bengals, Cowboys, Football Team, and the Giants left along with the Titans and the Steelers.  11-5 (our bet) seems like a lock and 12-4 is possible.  Will they be the highest rated wild card seed come January?  From there?  We see one wild card win, then a loss.

–  We’ll fade the Browns.  The only game that we see as an outright win left is the Jets.  The other six, Jaguars and Giants included, will be tough for them.  And, the lockerroom is only a match light away from a dumpster fire.  We see 8-8 for the Browns and another cold winter on Lake Erie.

– The Bengals will “scrap you for a ball” as one Lester Miles used to say about some other Bengals.  They just don’t have enough scrappers.  If Burrow remains upright through December we see a 2-1 run through Washington, Dallas, and the NY Giants.  They’s bow to the Steelers, Ravens, and Miami.  Week 16 is at Houston, and given that mess, we’d call it a toss-up.  Mark us down for 5-10-1 and mark the Bengals down for better things ahead in 2021 and 2022.

 

Abby will weigh in with her picks tomorrow.

But a road trip for the BBR staff to NOLA could make the writing cloudy to nonexistent Monday and Tuesday.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We miss sports.  A week from tonight the NFL gives us a respite from the drudgery as their annual draft begins.  It’ll be different for sure in a virtual sort of way.  If you’ve kept your social distance from the NFL recently we have Ten Piece NFL Nuggets for you.  We are running low on vegetable oil at the virtual world headquarters, so we oven-fried them instead.

  1.  No one has cleaned their house more this offseason than the Carolina Panthers.  Incoming head coach Matt Ruhle, OC Joe Brady, and QB Teddy Bridgewater are a change to the look and culture of the franchise.  BBR expects them to be bold and active in the draft as well.
  2. Yesterday they tore up the old and wrote the new contract for Christian McCaffery.  It’s now an eye-popping 4 years for a total of 64 million Panther bucks.  Joe Brady will get him isolated on a linebacker much the same way he did with Clyde Edwards Hellaire at LSU and how Sean Payton does with Alvin Kamara at New Orleans.  Good luck stopping that.
  3. Last year the Panthers went 5-11 in Ron Rivera’s last year.  It was also Cam Newton’s last year.  In the upside-down NFL they could reverse that W-L record if the ball even gets snapped in 2020.
  4.  Who knew a QB that started 25 games in college, threw 30 TD’s against 17 interceptions would become the greatest QB in NFL history? Bill Belichick, we guess. That was Tom Brady’s resume coming out of Michigan in 1999.   Though even clairvoyant Bill B. would only invest a 6th round pick on him at the time.  What did Mel Kiper think then?  Kiper wrote, “He’s a straight dropback passer who stands tall in the pocket, doesn’t show nervous feet, and does a nice job working through his progressions.”  That was pretty accurate, just like the QB himself.  He had a fifth-round grade on him then.  His complete writeup from 1999 is here.
  5.  The Patriots likely will be looking around the draft for a QB.  Jalen Hurts anyone?  Belichick is great at using the best of what someone has and building around them as opposed to the opposite.  No doubt he has looked around the league and seen what Westbrook, Mahomes, and Jackson have done.  If the shoe fits?
  6.  The annual head faking is going on as teams jockey for position in the draft to get to the QB they may really covet.  Rumors abound and one has Justin Hebert (Oregon) now considered ahead of Tua Tagovailoa.  Doubtful, but you never know.  Miami has more draft pick capital than anyone in the draft and sits at #5.  They could move the board or move around the board if they so chose.
  7. If/when Tua starts for the team that makes him their choice he’ll be the first lefty to do so since 2014.  The last one?  Michael Vick.  Who was he playing for then?  If you guessed the J-E-T-S you’re in midseason form in the offseason.
  8.  Tom Brady’s new address in Tampa makes him an NFC South Division resident as well.   Vegas has the win total for the Bucs season at nine.  If New Orleans is the favorite to win the division again, and if the Panthers are poised to rebound it’ll be a tough division for sure.  Could the Atlanta Falcons be in for a long season?  There are only so many wins to go around when you play everyone twice inside the division.
  9.  The Dirty Birds are but one of seven teams with new uniforms or tweaks of old ones for 2020.  It’s always a good day to obsolete old unis and sell new ones if you are in the apparel biz.  You can see a good bit of the changes or the hints at the yet to be revealed ones here.
  10.  The draft will be very different this year for many reasons.  Scouts haven’t had the pro workout days they covet.  Individual interviews were kiboshed.  Team management will not huddle in the war rooms.  And, most of all, when Roger Goodell gets ready to announce the first pick of the entire draft he won’t be drowned out by the annual booing.  Too bad.

Cincinnati you’re on the clock.

“I Saw a Path.”

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems pretty clear now, doesn’t it?

After 8-0 became 9-0 on the contested 100 yards of Tuscaloosa grass, Joe Burrow stood tall.  Burrow just finished his work day with 31-39 passing for 391 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.  LSU finally slayed the Bama dragon/elephant.  Joe’s awfully handy with a sword.  The largest daytime viewership of CBS football in many years, 16 million in all, saw the Game of the Century, Part II.

After the exhausting, four hour bout Saturday LSU’s football team stood shoulder to shoulder in the corner of the end zone facing the band and the LSU fans, and belted out the fight song and the alma mater.  And, after the singing was done nose tackle Tyler Shelvin, a svelte 350 lbs, lifted one Joe Burrow, a svelte 215 lbs onto his left shoulder all by himself.  He carried him off of the field.

There still is work to be done.  And, after three more regular season games that LSU is hoping will be wins, there is the not so small matter of the SEC Championship Game. And after that, Joe Burrow will fly to New York.  First Tyler carried Joe.  Soon Joe is going to carry the Heisman.  Start spreading the news, the Heisman Trophy is Joe Burrow’s, aka Jeaux Burreaux’s, to lose.

But did you see this coming?  No, you didn’t.  But one astute observer of football and very astute observer of LSU football did.  “I saw a path,” Matt Porter said.  That was back in early June of this year a full three months before the first football was kicked or picked off.  You may have already heard of his story, but post the Alabama game it was time to check in again.

“I was putzing around on an LSU website, maybe 24/7, and saw a thread about Heisman possibilities.  I decided to look at my online site.  I scrolled down to Joe.  It showed Burrow at 200-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy.  I thought it was a typo.  Why would a returning quarterback on a big team have such odds?  I thought that maybe it should be 20-1.  I instantly said, ‘I’ll put $50 on that right now, tremendous value.’ ” It was a chance to turn $50 in to $10,000.

Matt Porter is one of us.  He’s a successful Florida based Commercial Finance Broker by day.  By weekend he’s a real fan with hopes and passion for NCAA football. The enthusiasm pours out as his words tell the story.  “It’s my only bet on who will win the Heisman ever!”

As word spread in August like the Baton Rouge humidity that LSU indeed was running some spread offense, the site had dropped it’s odds to around 35-1.  Shorty thereafter his site offered him $1096 to take the prescient now, but not yet as much then, bet off of his hands.  That’s a 21x return on your investment before the first first down of the first game.  That’s good work if you can get it. “I didn’t even know that there was a place on my site for offers to cash out bets.  I do now.”

Game one came and went.  After LSU bounced Texas in Austin 45-38 the offer crept up to $1375.  Game three was a blowout and Burrow’s statistics were as well.   “They raised the offer up to almost $1800.”  In game four Burrow’s stats were downright uncivil to host Vanderbilt.  But, a bye week followed.  “I got no offer during the bye week.  Hmm.”

After Utah St. got worked in BR by a one sided 42-6 score and Burrow “out dueled Jordan Love” they went back down to $1100. “How can they go backwards?” he wondered.  ” I thought maybe it was some gamesmanship and it was just before Florida which might be a pretty staunch test.”  It was supposed to be but Burrow went 21-24 for 293 yards with 3 td’s and no picks.  Staunch met grit.  Grit won.  “The offer went to a then high of $1900.”

“At this point I was really playing it out in my head and I imagined just before Bama would be my best offer.  And, after seeing what he was doing I wanted to hold at least until then,” Matt added.  Mississippi St. was road kill.  Then, another big test loomed.  Auburn and it’s NFL quality DL were headed to Death Valley.  “The offer reached a season high before that game of like $3865 or $3876, or something like that.”  Another test passed and a tough one.

Then?  “Then nothing.”  I haven’t received any other offer since before that game to date.”  What happened?  “I think they think ‘why give me an out now?’  It’s their chance to get into a position of strength.”  That’s poker parlance from the prescient one.   “Maybe I’ll see one last offer before the last game with A&M.”

Why has he been so, so, so confident all along?  “I surmised all along that Hurts had no chance.  It would be 3x in a row for Oklahoma and a transfer QB.  They wouldn’t give Jordan 3x MVP’s in a row.  The press was fatigued and looking for another story.  I figured It would come down to Burrow v. Tua.  I got an assist when Chase Young became a story in the Midwest that would water down the Justin Fields story, too.”

Matt went on.  “It’s a popularity contest.  Burrow is cool in front of the camera.  He’s confident and likable.  He’s comfortable in his own skin.”  Can they entice you still?  “No offer is good enough now.  I’ll now ride it out.”

Matt has no plans to head to NY assuming all goes well and Burrow is able to get to the finish line.  “No, no plans to geaux.”  What about if SI or ESPN picks up your story again and gets you there and a seat in the Downtown Athletic Club for the presentation?  “Oh yea.  I’ll be there!”

With such foresight one wondered if he has any other clear long term visions.  “I did put a small amount on Kamala Harris to win the Democratic nomination.”  It’s at 80-1.  “But I’m starting to think I should have put my bet on Pete Buttigieg.  Who would have thought that he would get this far, and there is still a long time to go.”

Laugh if you wish.  Once there was a long way to go for a backup redshirt junior Ohio St University quarterback.  He transferred to LSU.   The book isn’t finished yet.  But, what has been written is inspiring.  You had to have vision to see this potential ending.  Matt Porter did.  Soon he might be $10,000 better off because of it.