LSU

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Six

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Forgive Abby for last week’s poor picking.  She coughed up seven more bones than she won.   Hopefully, her bout with kennel cough has subsided this week.  She got a lot of rest, socially distanced herself, and wore a mask to help ensure a better outcome for her loyal betting patrons.

Week six features a lot of lines(pass) that could provide back door covers, so conservative is a word to the wise.

  1.  Nebraska -3 at Rutgers and Houston + 3 at Memphis –  Friday night lights usually favor the home team on a short week.  Road team Indy beating Denver last night in a real dog nap of a game gives us confidence in this parlay.  The Cornhuskers have pride and the Cougars are angry.   One bone to win three bones.
  2. Purdue +3 at Maryland and Louisville -3 at Virginia-  Two more roadies paired for multiple a multiple-bone payout.  Purdue is pretty good.  Virginia is bad. One bone to win three bones.
  3. South Carolina at Kentucky -6 – Kentucky played very well in Oxford but lost to a very good Rebel team.  South Carolina is on the road after hammering an instate directional school.  Abby likes the spot as much as the name Spot for a dog.  Two bones.
  4.  Florida St at NC State under 51 –  FSU and NC St both score plenty of points against lower-level competition.  When the going gets tough both tighten a bit.  One bone.
  5. Washington St + 13 1/2 at USC-  Can we pump the brakes on how great Lincoln Riley is?  The Oregon State game v USC is your tell for this one.  Expect USC to win but not cover.  One bone.
  6. Tennessee – 2 1/2 at LSU-  This is the surprise line of the week.  This is a lot of credit to LSU’s home stadium Death Valley and not near enough to Hendon Hooker.  Two bones.
  7. Arkansas +9 at Mississippi St- The Bulldogs bit the Aggies last week at home.  We expect another win but a close, perhaps overtime win vs. an angry Hog team.  One bone.

That’s seven out of eight road teams, nine bones wagered to win 13, and one under a total on the line this bounce-back weekend.

Woof!

 

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby watched Scott Van Pelt’s “Bad Beats” ESPN segment last Monday night with great disinterest.  She dropped two games in the final seconds v the spread to fall just below .500 for the week.  Stuff happens.

This was after a great week 3, so all is well for the hound.  Pound for pound she likes a lot of what she sees this week.

  1. Tulane at Houston -2 1/2 – Friday Night Lights in Texas.  Dana Holgersen ripped the Cougars up one side and down the other after their mistake-filled lethargic effort v Rice last week.  Expect Houston to come out like their hair is on fire.  One bone.
  2. Michigan St +7 1/2 at Maryland and Purdue + 12 1/2 at Minnesota- The Big 10 Parlay of the Day.  Michigan St cannot be as bad as they looked last week, can they?  Minnesota cannot be as good as they looked last week, can they?  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Iowa St -3 at Kansas – Dorothy Special – Head Coach Lance Leipold is a wizard and might find the yellow brick road filled with gold later this year.  But, don’t mistake Matt Campbell for the Tin Man.  He’s turned down more offers than you can count on one hand. Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Ole Miss -7 –  This line looks like Vegas is screaming for you to take Kentucky.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  5. Texas A&M ML +155 at Mississippi St –  The Aggies stumbled to another victory last week after Arkansas fumbled away what would have been a 21-0 lead.  Abby expects more of the same out of the Aggies this week with Reveille’s help.  Two bones to win three bones.
  6. Oklahoma -6 at TCU-  Abby has licked her chops for this game all week.  She expects the Sooners to win comfortably to erase the bad memory of last Saturday.  Two bones.
  7. LSU at Auburn +8 1/2 –  This yearly rivalry game always brings the unexpected.  Always.  Who would have thought LSU would be a road favorite by nearly 9 after they shot themselves in the foot 9 times v FSU a month ago?  LSU is minus four starters and Auburn has a dead man walking for a head coach.  Always. One bone.
  8. Georgia -14 (first half) at Missouri- Kirby Smart was smarting after his Dawgs slept through their win over Kent St. last week.  Georgia won’t be held back by a leash this week, especially in the first two quarters.  One bone.

Woof!!

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 10

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When you’re hot, you’re hot.  And, through nine weeks Abby is en fuego.

As November rolls in her record stands at 33 wins and 23 losses, and 51 impressive bones won versus only 32 lost.  And, hopefully, her hunch won you a bunch last week.  It stands tall at 7-1.

Hopefully, she didn’t spend too much time patting (pawing) herself on the back this past week.  In the handicapping business you’re only as good as your next pick.

Week 10 is upon us.  But be wary.  There are plenty of double-digit lines, big road favorites, and trap games.  Abby’s playing it close to the dog vest.  Bet too much this week on a game and you might need some hair of the dog on Sunday.

  1. Army at Air Force -2 1/2 — Abby thanks all for their service, including service dogs.  The game, rightfully so is a tossup.  She’ll take the high elevation home-field advantage along with a stout D.  One bone.
  2. NC State at Florida St +3 and Clemson -4 at Louisville — It’s a parlay reminiscent of the old days of the ACC when there were Tigers and Seminoles and not much else.  Two bones to win six bones.
  3. Houston -13 at South Florida — Like mentioned above, when your hot, you’re hot.  It’s hot temperature-wise in Tampa, but the Cougars are even hotter.   Abby’s been riding the hot hand of Dana Holgerson. Houston covers late.  One bone.
  4. Wake Forest at North Carolina +2 1/2 — It feels like the line is off a good bit here.  Vegas wants you on the WF side.  Abby, as you know, likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  5. Liberty at Ole Miss over 67 — A point a minute plus a touchdown is plenty of scoreboard action.  Ole Lane and Hugh are going to pull out all of the stops.  One bone.
  6. Baylor at TCU + 6 1/2 — The steady hand at the wheel is Dave Aranda for Baylor.  The steady hand that was at the TCU wheel for 20 years was Gary Patterson.  Abby hates cats but loves dead cat bounces.  One bone.
  7. Michigan St at Purdue +3 — It feels like the line is a good bit off here, part two.  Purdue took down then #2 Iowa in Iowa after a big win last month.  Now, the Spartans hit the road in a similar situation.  Buyer beware.  One bone.
  8. LSU at Alabama – 28 1/2 —  Two years ago Coach O made much over the win in Tuscaloosa over Alabama.  Maybe too much.  WIll St. Nick have mercy on O’s soul?  He might in the fourth quarter, but by then it’ll be 49-10.  Two bones.

The Air Force v. Army game in Colorado is an early Saturday kickoff.  The over/under is a crazy low 37 1/2.  On a crazy hunch, Abby likes the under.

Ten bones wagered to win sixteen.

Four chalks, four dogs, six home teams, two road warriors, one parlay, one over, one under.

Woof!

 

 

 

Abby Picks, Year 4 Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Skunked!  Well not totally, but Abby’s picks stunk at a minimum last week.

The only thing you can do when a dog gets skunked is to wash her down with some tomato juice and hope that it doesn’t happen again.

Luckily she has a lot of padding on her paws to cushion the 2-6 performance last week.  Overall she’s 24-18 in the won/loss column, 37-26 in bones, and the hunch bet won to bring that year long to a solid 6-1.

Moving along.

  1. Memphis -2 at UCF — In a Friday night coin flip game take the better team on the road and hope they can win at the very end of what will be a back and forth game.  One bone.
  2. Texas St at Georgia St -10 1/2 and Colorado at California – 8 — Two lines caught Abby’s eyes this week that looked like weird outliers v the teams’ performance to date.  Georgia St and California have no business being big favorites in these games.  So, Abby says take them in a parlay.  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Oregon +1 at UCLA — Abby’s going with the better team on the road again in another coin flip game.  Cristobal is an under-the-radar, underrated coach.  One bone.
  4. Mississippi St at Vanderbilt +21 —  Vandy is not good and that’s being polite.  If Miss St loses this game Mike Leach will be called not good and that’s being polite.  He won’t, but the Bulldogs won’t cover either.  One bone.
  5. LSU ML at Ole Miss —  Who knows if LSU will play for themselves or come out dead flat with the Coach O news this week?  Abby doesn’t love LSU to win but loves the value in the bet.  One bone to win three bones.
  6. USC at Notre Dame -6 1/2 — For the third time the bet is the better team but this time ND is the home team.  Expect it close for three quarters then the Irish pour it on.  One bone.

Six bones to win ten, four chalks, three dogs, and one big can of tomato juice.

Woof!

 

O No

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Ed Note: This article was originally published Monday.  An email out glitch prevented the subscribers from knowing that until Tuesday. Sorry.

BBR attempts each time it puts virtual pen to virtual paper to deliver a story that has an interest to a diverse national readership.

Coach Ed Orgeron of the Fighting Tigers of LSU was hardly that when he took over a proud football program that was stuck in neutral due to a stubborn coach named Les Miles.  Three years later a storybook15-0 season and an NCAA Championship made him just that.  Throw in some folksy “down on the bayou” logic and a big dose of the biggest frog anyone has ever had in his throat and you have a human interest story as well.

So how did this rags to riches story turn back to rags just 20 months later?  One of our staffers is quite close to the program and shares his thoughts this AM.

  1. In the SEC winning is the only thing.  A 9-8 record since the 15 and 0 run highlighted by a listless performance at Kentucky a week ago is reason number one.  When you make $9 million a year you don’t go 9-8.  When you coach in the SEC and make “only,” say, $4.5 million you don’t go 9-8 and survive either.
  2. Winning cures everything.  Losing exposes everything.  Orgeron’s actions while in front of the team, representing the team, and in his personal life away from the team had enough yellow flags in the last 20 months that they collectively went from a concern to a strong reason number two for his departure.
  3. O has never been a coordinator on either side of the ball.  Therefore, he needed to surround himself with two good ones.  He ran through OC’s like Auburn ran through his rush defense.  It went from Ensminger to Canada (who he had a fistfight with four games into his tenure) to Ensminger/Brady to Lineham to Peetz in five years.  That’s five coordinators, two buyouts, and too many losses in too short of a timeframe.
  4. He also gave then DC Dave Aranda, now a successful head coach at Baylor, a nudge out of the door late in the great 2019 season.  Ed wanted more pressure, more four-man fronts.  He said so publicly.  Out goes Aranda, in comes a three-year guaranteed contract for Bo Pelini.  LSU’s defense in 2020 was historically its worst EVER statistically speaking.  Pelini was bought out after one year.
  5.  What were they?  One was when he failed to dodge a question posed by a Fox News anchor in an interview about football life with the covid problem in 2020.  With little time remaining on-air she pivoted and asked what O thought of then-President Trump.  Instead of separating himself and the team from politics he warmly embraced Trump.  “President Trump is doing a great job.”   O is entitled to his opinion, but he needed to keep it to himself as the leader of the team.  It divided the team and the school’s leadership that he spoke out.  Free speech is no longer free.
  6. Two, the numerous off-field dalliances of a newly single man should have been private but were too public in today’s video and social media world. It’s his private life until it’s not.  The optic caused concern for a school with way too many Title IX transgressions.
  7.  Three, he had one too many “new friends” attending practice with or without their children running around like they, not LSU, owned the place.  It was a minor distraction or three that added fuel to the brush fire.  It showed a lack of focus on the job at hand when the hand that feeds him had just jumped his contract from four to nine million a year and guaranteed the next four years.
  8.  He had one too many brush-ups with fans or foes.  The second to last was calling out an overserved UCLA supporter and challenging him to a fight pregame.  “Bring your ass on in your sissy blue shirt,” Orgeron said.  The Tigers had little fight during the game losing 38-27 against a perceived inferior opponent in game one of this year that needed marked improvement from a 5-5 prior year.  The last was taking a question on his weekly radio show from a prankster who Oregeron then told that he “would find a fishing hole for.”  Individually harmless enough, collectively a sore spot.
  9. What’s next for O?  He’s going to finish out the year as HC for the Tigers then move on.  So, Orgeron is the interim coach replacing Orgeron until year’s end. Odd?  Maybe somewhat.  Then, we’ll see.  His days as a head coach are done.  Maybe a friend like Lane Kiffin could hire him as a defensive line coach which would be a back to the future move for both.  Or, his personality could fit well on local radio assuming anyone could understand him over the air.  Or, he could take his $17 million dollars that LSU will buy him out with over the next 18 months and sail away with his companion of choice.
  10. What’s next for LSU?  What is overlooked by recency bias is that LSU has been on a two decades-long run.  2019 was the best of the years, but 2003 and 2007 ended with LSU hoisting the most important trophy of all.  In 2011, they finished runner-up.  It’s a top ten job in America.  An argument could be made that it’s top 5.  The AD has a chance to do what O ultimately failed to do-hire a great person, trust them to do their jobs, and keep your nose at least clean enough.

Let the name game speculation begin.

O? Or Neaux?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Just last week we wrote about the perennial winning culture of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the perennial losing culture of the Detroit Lions, why they are who they are, and the chasm of difference in their on-field results.  It is titled Lions, Turkeys, and Culture.  Today we add Tigers to that list.

After Alabama dismantled LSU 55-17 last Saturday, we received a few inquiries from some of our VIP subscribers asking how the dramatic fall from the penthouse to the outhouse could be so severe and so swift in Baton Rouge.   So, unlike Coach Ed Orgeron we decided to listen to “what’s important now”  to our loyal fans and sent one of our best BBR investigative reporters to Baton Rouge to get answers.

LSU won it all last year by winning every one of its 15 games.  Individual awards, like Heisman trophies, and group awards, like the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line, were collected like the marbles you had in your youth.  This year LSU has three wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas.  Their combined record is 5-22.  They have five losses.  The point total differential is 222-110 or an average beatdown of 44-22 in those games.

So, what happened and why so quickly?

As is usual in such a fall there is no one answer, but a multitude of them.  And, the collective weight of them gained steam like a snowball down a hill.  The culture went from envious to toxic.

First, LSU lost five players who were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.  No one, not even Bama can replace that talent in the next year.  Sure, there are four and five-star talents waiting in the wings, but that doesn’t make them first-round talents.  Fourteen players in all were drafted, an all-time team high mark.

Second, almost half of the 14 were early declarations.  What better time to test the market when you’ve proven your worth.  You don’t go up from 15-0, you only go down.  This makes the 2020 edition short on experienced talent.  Stated differently, most of the best juniors are gone.

Three of the best that remained opted out prior to the season.  One, Ja’Marr Chase, will go in the first round as likely the second wideout taken after Bama’s Devonta Smith.  Know where Smith grew up?  Louisiana, but we digress.

Seven more have opted out along the way in the year of the COVID-19. Three of them will get drafted, and one of them will also go in the first round.

As the talent moved on so did the offensive co-coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL and the defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to the head coaching position at Baylor.  They were replaced by Scott Lineham and Bo Pelini respectively.  No disrespect, but the two fifty-something-year-old hires have lost a bit off of their fastballs.

All of the above was occurring while America burned during the summer of discontent.  Ed Orgeron was praised by President Trump during a speech or three.  Coach O, as is his right, returned the compliment.

Did this sit well with the team?  No.  They decided to peacefully march across campus, as is their right, calling for an end to police brutality.  Who did they not invite or alert?  Coach O.  The march ended in the president of the university’s office.  Yes, it did.  The president called a dumbfounded Orgeron who hurried to the office.

Afterward, a clearly caught off guard Orgeron said that he had learned a lot in listening to his players in the president’s office.  Afterward, he privately admonished them for not including him on the front end of such a public display.  This was much to the dismay of the players.

All of this has taken place while players have to isolate as a team to stay healthy, then isolate as an individual if they don’t stay healthy.  The weight of it all feels like the aforementioned snowball.  The spirit of the team reaches new lows weekly.

The 2020 season was a mere 1 and 1/2 games old when LSU starting quarterback Myles Brennan, an impressive redshirt junior went down and now is out for the season.  In his place is an 18-year-old true freshman without the benefit of spring practice nor much fall prep.  On the road in the SEC a “rookie” often looks like a deer caught in the headlights in the deep south.

So where to from here?  The LSU Athletic Department is accused of mishandling nine Title IX filings alleging coverup or negligence in sexual battery, domestic violence, and worse matters.  Most are alleged to have occurred by former football team members and possibly five while Ed O has been the head coach.  Internal investigations are ongoing.  It could be all of the cover AD Scott Woodward needs to lower the boom on Coach O just one year removed from on-field perfection.  It’s doubtful, but it’s possible.

Short of that, O needs to jolt his coaching staff to its core.  Good old boys need to be bought out or outright fired.  Some can’t coach.  Some can’t recruit.   Does LSU have the cash in the pandemic year revenue shortfall to clear out several?  The boosters do, but are they buying in more so than the team has?

Experienced talent is lacking v. historical norms, but two back to back top-five recruiting classes, one on campus, and one about to be signed net week will help greatly.  In Louisiana lots of four-star and a few five-star players are never too many mile markers away from Baton Rouge.

And, if he survives as is expected, Orgeron needs to take a deep look in the self-reflection mirror.

An incredible championship run likely bought him some time (one more year) to fix the many blemishes.  But trying to hide them with makeup doesn’t work well in the heat and humidity that south Louisiana is infamous for.

His often-repeated mantra of “One Team, One Heartbeat” is anything but.

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 10

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas wins when you tie.  It’s called the vig (also known as juice, the cut, the take, the margin, the house edge).  Abby won three (including a fun parlay) and lost three bets last week.  One was a brutal, slim 1/2 point non-cover.  So close. So far.   She won five bones and lost five bones.  The hunch bet game got “Covided out” yet again.

Viola.  Vegas loves a week like that.  It keeps you coming back for more.  And, more is below.

The season stands even at 24-24-1, the bones are still good at 41-32, and the hunch is stuck at 2-4.

  1. Notre Dame at North Carolina +5 1/2 –  A straight up win would not shock Abby Roux.  She’ll take NC to cover but suffer a heartbreaking last-second loss.  One bone.
  2. Oregon at Oregon St +14 1/2–  Home teams are a theme for her this week.  An angry home team in a rivalry game formerly known as The Civil War (that’s insensitive to say now but we digress) is even better.  One bone.
  3. Iowa St at Texas -1 – She takes yet another home team, and this one is nothing if not inconsistent.  Tom Herman has to win games like this in year four, doesn’t he?  Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Florida under 61 and 1/2 and LSU at Texas A&M under 63 –  Alabama put 63 on Kentucky by themselves. Over is an easy peasy cover here isn’t it?  Abby always loves a good zig when others zag.  It’ll be raining cats and dogs in College Station.  Half of that is always one of Abby’s favorite weather events.  One bone to win three.
  5. Auburn +24 and 1/2 at Alabama – The Iron Bowl always has a surprise or two within the 60 minutes.  Bama wins but as Lee Corso always says, “It’ll be closer than the experts think.”  Abby doesn’t think it’ll be too much closer, but enough to cover.  One bone.
  6. Miss St at Ole Miss -9 1/2 – The Egg Bowl features the two newest and biggest coaching personalities in the game today.

    Points will come quicker than playing a pinball machine.   Kiffin is going to run up the score if he gets a chance.  Two bones.

There you have it.  Four home for the holiday’s teams in five games, and two under the total score tied into a parlay.  That’s eight bones wagered with a chance at winning 10.

On a hunch, bet the opposite of all of the above.  It’s a novel approach in the year of the novel virus.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Three, Week Three

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We’ll be brief this AM.  We’re lucky Abby studied the board early this week as she has a bad cough and a runny snoot.  Hopefully her improvement this AM means we can avoid waiting in the dreaded car line for the dreaded swab up the nose halfway to Omaha.

Meanwhile, she’s off to a good start in dreaded 2020.  Through two weeks she’s 6-4-1 picking games against the spread while winning nine bones waged and losing only six.  She had a hunch that The Donald would win, win, win v the dreaded one as well.  So the Hunch Bet evens at 1-1.

Texas Tech +13 at Iowa St. – Iowa St lost to ULL three weeks ago.  Last week the Cyclones beat Oklahoma.  Today a hurricane is going to beat up ULL’s campus.  It’s 2020.  Abby says Iowa St wins but doesn’t cover.   One bone.

Florida at Texas A&M + 6 1/2 –  This line makes little sense to Abby.  Florida looks great out of the gate.  Meanwhile, A&M struggled v. Vandy in their opener and got their annual beatdown from Bama last week.  She’s going to zig when others zag.  Abby smells a Vegas zig when others zag.  One bone.

Oklahoma -2 v Texas-  Two of the most disappointing teams early square off in the Red River Shootout.   Could Oklahoma possibly lose three in a row with the next great NFL coach roaming the sidelines we ask in jest?  Sure.  But, on the other sidelines roams the greatest college coach hired three years ago we say in jest.  Hmm.  Neither team plays defense.  Okla gets one more stop than Texas.  Three bones.

Alabama at Mississippi + 24–  Nick Saban has never lost to a former pupil turned head coach.  It won’t happen this week either.  And it won’t be close.  But it will be close enough for Kiffin’s crew to cover.  One bone.

Miami at Clemson -14 –  This is the year.  Miami is the real deal this time.  We’ve heard this before.  D’Eriq King is the real deal.  We’ve heard this before. So is Clemson.  One bone.

To escape the perils of Hurricane Delta LSU moved its game to Missouri. The line went from -21 to minus 14.  But, the line that stayed close to the same is the o/u of 55.  Abby loves her some under.  On a hunch take under 55.

Woof!

 

One Year

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

My how things can change.  A lot can happen in a year.   And, a lot did.  Take a gander at some twists and turns below.

One year ago Alex Cora was getting ready to go to spring training as the manager of the 2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox.  A year later he is out of his coveted job due to his orchestration of an electronic sign stealing scheme as batting coach of the 2017 World Series Champion Houston Astros.

One year ago said Astros were unveiling a 2019 marketing campaign called “Take It Back!” After losing to the Washington Nationals in an underwhelming World Series in game seven, the Astros are indeed taking it back.  They are taking back control of their once proud franchise by dumping GM Jeff Luhnow and Manager A.J. Hinch.  Owner Jim Crane said ” they didn’t start the scandal, but didn’t stop it after they learned of it.”

Four years ago, with a year to go before the 2016 election, outsider Donald J. Trump took the Republican Party by storm and flipped it on it’s head.  Joe Biden was finishing up a heady eight year run as VP.

Four years later, with a year to go before the 2020 election, no one in the Democratic Party is doing any such water acrobatics.  “Low Energy” (per David Axelrod last evening) candidate Joe Biden leads but can only muster about 20% of the Party’s support.

One year ago, after dismantling Alabama, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney was hoisting the trophy after the National Championship Game.

One year later, after extending their unbeaten streak to 29-0, Clemson stood nearby as LSU’s Ed Orgeron hoisted the trophy after the National Championship Game.

One year ago no one had ever heard of newly signed LSU Passing Game Coordinator Joe Brady.  One year later, after a bevy of offensive NCAA records fell, Joe Brady is onward and upward.  He’s headed to Carolina to be the new OC for the Panthers.  Sean Payton “taught him all he knows.”  Going forward, twice a year,  Brady will attempt to teach Payton a thing or two when the Saints and the division rival Panthers meet.

One year ago the Dow Jones Industrial average stood at 23,909 on 1/15/19.  One year later the average stands at 28,939.  That’s a 5000 point move in one year That’s so good that it’s crazy.  That’s so crazy that it’s that good.

It’s fascinating to look back.  How about looking forward?  In one year could a mayor from South Bend, IN be your president?  Could the Oregon Ducks be hoisting a trophy?  Could the Tampa Bay Rays be the World Series Champs getting ready to go to spring training?  Dow 30,000 anyone?

BBR will keep an electronic eye on it all.  We know where to get some cheap used cameras that used to hang in center field.