ncaa football

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Thirteen

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

College football rolls into lucky week 13.

Abby wasn’t only lucky last week, she was good.  Four wins v two losses makes her season long record 30-32.  Where the money is though is in the bones.  Hitting her best bet (Georgia over Auburn) for four bones helped her widen the winnings on the year to 61 bones won v 53 bones lost.  The hunch took another punch however, but  still stands tall at 9 wins and 4 set backs.

In honor of week 13 we offer 11 bones to win 13 for you to chew on.

Oklahoma St. -6 1/2 v. West Virginia – The Cowboys have won three in a row including solid victories over Iowa St. and TCU.  WVA is  a tough place to play, but Abby thinks that Okla St. gits er dun on offense.   One bone.

Illinois +15 v Iowa and Northwestern +13 1/2 v Minnesota –  This is Abby’s two dog parlay special of the week.  Illinois will score just enough to cover against an Iowa team that plays strong D at home.  NW is a my dog Spot bet.  What’s that?  Abby’s getting big dog points and likes the fact that NW is at home and facing a Golden Gopher team who’s bubble burst a bit last week.  One bone to win three bones.

Texas A&M +13 v Georgia – The Aggies have no signature wins this year.  The need to beat either Georgia or LSU in the last two to finish 8-4.  Georgia played a rough defensive game v. Auburn last week.  Can the Aggies pull off a stunner?  South Carolina did between these same hedges a month ago.  Maybe not, but 13 is this week’s lucky number.  Three bones.

Kansas St. +2 1/2 v Texas Tech – This line seems odd.  Shouldn’t K St. be favored?  Undeterred she’s taking the slight road dog.   Texas Tech has played better of late, but it says here that K St. is smarting after a loss to West Virginia and wins straight up.  Two bones.

Tennessee +3 1/2 v Missouri –  This one is scary but Abby wants to believe her eyes.   Her vision tells her that Tennessee is playing much better of late while Missouri has cratered.  Take Tennessee and watch for a possible straight up win.  Two bones.

Oregon St. + 10 1/2 v Washington St. –  Only Oregon and Utah have slowed the suddenly prolific Oregon St offense.  Washington St doesn’t have a prolific defense.  It’s back to back road game for the Beavers, but Abby sees an undermanned, but determined team that will keep this high scoring affair close.  Two bones.

That’s six road teams and six dogs out of seven games above.  On a hunch take THE as the big favorite home team minus 18 versus Penn St.

Woof!

 

 

 

“I Saw a Path.”

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems pretty clear now, doesn’t it?

After 8-0 became 9-0 on the contested 100 yards of Tuscaloosa grass, Joe Burrow stood tall.  Burrow just finished his work day with 31-39 passing for 391 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.  LSU finally slayed the Bama dragon/elephant.  Joe’s awfully handy with a sword.  The largest daytime viewership of CBS football in many years, 16 million in all, saw the Game of the Century, Part II.

After the exhausting, four hour bout Saturday LSU’s football team stood shoulder to shoulder in the corner of the end zone facing the band and the LSU fans, and belted out the fight song and the alma mater.  And, after the singing was done nose tackle Tyler Shelvin, a svelte 350 lbs, lifted one Joe Burrow, a svelte 215 lbs onto his left shoulder all by himself.  He carried him off of the field.

There still is work to be done.  And, after three more regular season games that LSU is hoping will be wins, there is the not so small matter of the SEC Championship Game. And after that, Joe Burrow will fly to New York.  First Tyler carried Joe.  Soon Joe is going to carry the Heisman.  Start spreading the news, the Heisman Trophy is Joe Burrow’s, aka Jeaux Burreaux’s, to lose.

But did you see this coming?  No, you didn’t.  But one astute observer of football and very astute observer of LSU football did.  “I saw a path,” Matt Porter said.  That was back in early June of this year a full three months before the first football was kicked or picked off.  You may have already heard of his story, but post the Alabama game it was time to check in again.

“I was putzing around on an LSU website, maybe 24/7, and saw a thread about Heisman possibilities.  I decided to look at my online site.  I scrolled down to Joe.  It showed Burrow at 200-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy.  I thought it was a typo.  Why would a returning quarterback on a big team have such odds?  I thought that maybe it should be 20-1.  I instantly said, ‘I’ll put $50 on that right now, tremendous value.’ ” It was a chance to turn $50 in to $10,000.

Matt Porter is one of us.  He’s a successful Florida based Commercial Finance Broker by day.  By weekend he’s a real fan with hopes and passion for NCAA football. The enthusiasm pours out as his words tell the story.  “It’s my only bet on who will win the Heisman ever!”

As word spread in August like the Baton Rouge humidity that LSU indeed was running some spread offense, the site had dropped it’s odds to around 35-1.  Shorty thereafter his site offered him $1096 to take the prescient now, but not yet as much then, bet off of his hands.  That’s a 21x return on your investment before the first first down of the first game.  That’s good work if you can get it. “I didn’t even know that there was a place on my site for offers to cash out bets.  I do now.”

Game one came and went.  After LSU bounced Texas in Austin 45-38 the offer crept up to $1375.  Game three was a blowout and Burrow’s statistics were as well.   “They raised the offer up to almost $1800.”  In game four Burrow’s stats were downright uncivil to host Vanderbilt.  But, a bye week followed.  “I got no offer during the bye week.  Hmm.”

After Utah St. got worked in BR by a one sided 42-6 score and Burrow “out dueled Jordan Love” they went back down to $1100. “How can they go backwards?” he wondered.  ” I thought maybe it was some gamesmanship and it was just before Florida which might be a pretty staunch test.”  It was supposed to be but Burrow went 21-24 for 293 yards with 3 td’s and no picks.  Staunch met grit.  Grit won.  “The offer went to a then high of $1900.”

“At this point I was really playing it out in my head and I imagined just before Bama would be my best offer.  And, after seeing what he was doing I wanted to hold at least until then,” Matt added.  Mississippi St. was road kill.  Then, another big test loomed.  Auburn and it’s NFL quality DL were headed to Death Valley.  “The offer reached a season high before that game of like $3865 or $3876, or something like that.”  Another test passed and a tough one.

Then?  “Then nothing.”  I haven’t received any other offer since before that game to date.”  What happened?  “I think they think ‘why give me an out now?’  It’s their chance to get into a position of strength.”  That’s poker parlance from the prescient one.   “Maybe I’ll see one last offer before the last game with A&M.”

Why has he been so, so, so confident all along?  “I surmised all along that Hurts had no chance.  It would be 3x in a row for Oklahoma and a transfer QB.  They wouldn’t give Jordan 3x MVP’s in a row.  The press was fatigued and looking for another story.  I figured It would come down to Burrow v. Tua.  I got an assist when Chase Young became a story in the Midwest that would water down the Justin Fields story, too.”

Matt went on.  “It’s a popularity contest.  Burrow is cool in front of the camera.  He’s confident and likable.  He’s comfortable in his own skin.”  Can they entice you still?  “No offer is good enough now.  I’ll now ride it out.”

Matt has no plans to head to NY assuming all goes well and Burrow is able to get to the finish line.  “No, no plans to geaux.”  What about if SI or ESPN picks up your story again and gets you there and a seat in the Downtown Athletic Club for the presentation?  “Oh yea.  I’ll be there!”

With such foresight one wondered if he has any other clear long term visions.  “I did put a small amount on Kamala Harris to win the Democratic nomination.”  It’s at 80-1.  “But I’m starting to think I should have put my bet on Pete Buttigieg.  Who would have thought that he would get this far, and there is still a long time to go.”

Laugh if you wish.  Once there was a long way to go for a backup redshirt junior Ohio St University quarterback.  He transferred to LSU.   The book isn’t finished yet.  But, what has been written is inspiring.  You had to have vision to see this potential ending.  Matt Porter did.  Soon he might be $10,000 better off because of it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets- NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The latest AP Top 25 Poll is out for NCAA football as conference showdowns now abound.  Like golf heading to the final round on Sunday, we’ll focus a bit more on the top of the leaderboard.  And, the top just got a lot more interesting.  It’s Monday, and it’s time for your Ten Piece Nuggets.  Properly place your napkin in your lap and get after them below.

  1. LSU strengthened it’s hold on #1 with a Game of the Century, Part II, thrilling win over previously unbeaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa before a passionate sold out crowd. They received 54 of 62 possible first place votes.   BBR covered it live and can attest firsthand to the old world gladiator, last man standing feel.  President Trump and FLOTUS attended and were loudly cheered by 101k deplorables.  But, we digress for the first time today.
  2.  Joe Burrow completed 31-39 passes for 393 yards and 3 TD’s against the minister of defense Saban and his talented starting 11 defenders.  He ran for an additional clutch 64 yards.  The 46 points scored are the most ever allowed in Tuscaloosa by any Alabama team in any game played there.  Joe Burrow for Heisman anyone?  Joe Burrow for Heisman everyone?  Burrow’s performance was brilliant, but RB Clyde Edwards-Heliare might have been the game’s MVP.  His run after catch and run after first contact yards at key moments make him an instant legend down on the bayou.
  3. THE Ohio St. and Clemson stand at #2 and #3.  They garnered the other eight first place votes.  We can understand THE getting some love but how anyone would vote Clemson over these two at this moment befuddles the mind.  THE squeaked by Maryland 73-14, and travels to New Jersey this week to take on mighty 2-7 Rutgers.  Rutgers’ two wins are over UMass and Liberty.  Students at Liberty go to mass every week, but we digress.  Rutgers has been outscored by BIG 10 opponents by a total of 207-14.  THE has been installed as a 51 and 1/2 point favorite.  Do you really need the 1/2 when the whole number is 51?  We digress again.
  4. How far did #2 Alabama fall?  They only fell to #4.  Clearly the voters see them as the best one loss team in all of the land.  And, they view them as better than some undefeated Power 5 teams as well.  The more important rankings come out tomorrow night when the second Playoff Committee Poll is released.  Does Bama hang in their top four?
  5. Room in the top four was created when AP #5 and playoff ranked #4 Penn St. fell to now 9-0, and still undefeated, Minnesota.  Penn St. tumbled to #9 with the close 31-26, down to the wire, contest.  Penn St. still controls their own destiny in the BIG 10 East as they rumble with first place THE in two weeks.  That is, of course, assuming that THE gets by mighty Rutgers, but we digress.
  6.  One game in the L column Georgia as well as Oregon occupy the #5 and # 6 spots behind Alabama.  Georgia blanked fast fading Missouri 27-0 while Oregon stirred the “Fire Helton” soup a week ago at USC 56-24.  Oregon is going to knock on the playoff door if they win out. Georgia has a tough road game this weekend at Auburn.  The early line is Georgia minus 2 and 1/2.  It’s a similar line to the Rutgers game as they both end in 1/2, ahem.  Oregon travels to Arizona and as 26 point favorites will stir the “Fire Sumlin” soup.
  7. Arkansas said the soup was ready after watching Western Kentucky enjoy several helpings against the hapless Razorbacks.  W. Kentucky won 45-19 in Fayetteville.  Chad Morris lost.  He was mercifully relieved of his head coaching duties shortly after the pigs got slaughtered.  With Jimbo, Saban, Gus, and Coach O in the SEC West, coaching at Arkansas is a three year gig, tops.  Morris made it through 1 and 2/3rds.
  8. Minnesota bounced up from unlucky #13 to lucky #7 in the AP.  It’ll be interesting what the playoff committee does with the Golden Gophers.  P.J. Fleck will/might sign a bigger contract mid week as Minnie likes what they see and want to see more of it.  Will other schools like what they see even more?
  9. Baylor survived three overtimes to hang on at TCU 29-23.  They are 9-0.  Last Thursday they survived at home as big favorites over West Virginia 17-14.  The Bears might be running on fumes.  The Oklahoma Sooners come calling in Waco this weekend.  Baylor is #12 while the Sooners round out the top 10 at #10.
  10.  Spots #10 through #20 were mostly unchanged.  Texas, Indiana and Oklahoma St climbed back in to the bottom of the 25.   They are at #’s 22,24, and 25 respectively.  Sandwiched between them is Iowa at #23.  Iowa’s offense scored 22 points against Wisconsin Saturday.  It’s the second highest point total for them in BIG 10 games this year aside from their 30-0 thumping of mighty Rutgers.  Iowa hosts Minnesota this week.  Is there a letdown coming for the Golden Gophers?  Can Iowa score enough?

You’ve been served.

Lefty- Big Game. Shorty- YUGE game.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Way way back in 1966, or 1967 Lefty and Shorty were the amiable service station attendants.  Well, that’s what they were called back then as every pump was full serve.   Dad interacted with them as they checked the oil, washed the windshield, pumped the gas, and took the money.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

They were funny. They always had a back and forth to their banter.  If they were alive last night might have gone like this.

Lefty- It’s after midnight and it’s cold. Nobody’s buying gas at this hour.  Why are we sitting here?  Shorty- So we can discuss the upcoming “Game of the Century, Part II.”   It’s AP #1 LSU v. #2 Alabama.  Lefty- Big Game.  Shorty- YUGE game.  President Donald J. Trump will be there.  Lefty- He will be?  Shorty-  For sure.  It’s in the Deep South.  It’s Deep State v. Deep State.  It’s his base.  Plus he likes cheers, not boos when his name is announced.

Lefty- Who’s he rooting for? Shorty- All of the deplorables in attendance I guess.  He won’t be partial.  He’ll likely wear some fresh orange with a red tide.  Lefty– That’s not impartial.  You must mean a red tie?  Shorty- No, there are no ties in college football, overtimes decide winners.  And Trump likes to win, win, win.

Lefty- Good lord.  Shorty- Well, who do you think is going to win?  Lefty- Tough call, but Joe Burrow is almost automatic operating out of the shotgun.  Shorty- Burrow’s lucky Beto O’Rourke isn’t refereeing.  He promised to take all of the damn guns.

Lefty- Jesus, Mary, and Joseph.  Shorty- Nope they can’t win.  They’re the only three that haven’t announced their candidacy for the Democratic nomination.  Lefty-  Ahem.  Let’s get back to the game, can we?  Shorty- Sure.  It’s going to be standing room only and one expensive ticket.  Lefty- I bet.  Shorty-  I just saw Elizabeth Warren tweet that if she were elected President the tickets would be free.

Silence filled the cold still air as Lefty checked his pulse rate.

Lefty- Well, one more time, who do you think is going to win?  Shorty-  I don’t know.  2011 is the last time LSU won.  That’s “Four More Years!” and “Four More Years!” ago.  Lefty-  Alabama’s defense usually stifles LSU.  Shorty-  That’s cause Nick Saban spends more on his defense budget than Trump does on ours.  Lefty- I’ll play along.  What else?  Shorty-  Well a few reporters asked Joe Biden what he thought of the upcoming game.  Lefty-  Sure they did.  What did he have to say?  Shorty- Well, he said he remembered attending the LSU/Bama “Game of the Century, Part I” back in 2011 acting in his official role of Vice President.  Lefty- And?  Shorty- And, he wanted to wish both the Iowa Jayhawks and the Minnesota Wolverines great luck in Part II this Saturday night in their showdown in Tempe.

Lefty- I’m punching out before I punch you out.  Anything else?  Shorty- The teams are ranked one and two in the AP, but two and three in the College Playoff Poll.  Lefty- Who’s number one in that poll then?  Shorty-  It’s a tossup right now between Joe, Bernie, and Elizabeth.

Lefty-  This has been a dumpster fire.  Shorty- I’ll empty the trash cans before I go.

(Not) Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Your nuggets are here.  There are only eight this morning. Why?  One, the treadmill awaits.  It’s easier to run on eight than ten.  Two, there were a lot of teams off last weekend, so the news is sparse.  Three, we want to do our part to help Elizabeth Warren fund universal health care, but we digress while you digest.

  1.  The AP Top 25 is out.  Tomorrow the first College Football Playoff committee top 15 will be out.  Then the fun starts.  Meanwhile the AP top 5 remained the AP top 5 in the same order as last week.  It’s LSU, Alabama, THE, Clemson, and Penn St. in that order.
  2. Four took the week off.  Clemson did too as they pummeled Wofford 59-14.  Who?  Wofford College (the Terriers) is in South Carolina. The team competes in the NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision and are members of the Southern Conference.  Wofford’s first football team was fielded in 1889.  Who knew?
  3. The Georgia Bulldogs jumped from #8 to #6 with their 24-17 victory over Florida.  The score was closer than the game.  The Bulldogs are now in the SEC East driver’s seat with at least a one game lead on everyone else and the tiebreaker over Florida.  Work remains with Missouri and A&M at home, and Auburn on the road however.  When Florida lost to LSU Dan Mullen complained about injuries on his DL.  When Florida lost to Georgia he complained about the officiating.  Thankfully hurricane season has come and gone, so no complaints there.
  4. Oregon stayed at #7, but certainly solidified that ranking.  They dismantled USC 56-24 Saturday evening.  Faint cries from the far northwest are being heard about the Ducks in the playoff conversation.  It’ll be quite interesting to see how carefully the playoff committee is listening.  When your one loss to date is early in the season it helps.  When your one loss early in the season is to Auburn who is behind four SEC teams in the Top 25 it hurts.
  5.  Florida and alligator tears producer Dan Mullen’s loss was Utah and Oklahoma’s gain.   They moved up to #8 and #9 respectively.  Utah had a nice win over Washington.  Perhaps they are on a collision course with Oregon in the PAC 12?  If they both can get there with one loss the winner will have an argument for the final four.  Oklahoma was idle.
  6. Minnesota stayed at lucky #13.  Their gaudy 8-0 record will be put to the test Saturday.  They host 8-0 Penn St.  Minnie head coach P.J. Fleck overtly encouraged ESPN to come to the winter hinterlands for College Game Day.  After all it is two 8-0 teams.  ESPN chose Tuscaloosa for a “Game of the Century, Part II” showdown in the SEC.  LSU v. Alabama it is.  Alabama has won the last eight contests.  Joe Burrow has only played in the last one.
  7. Memphis hopped from #24 up to #19 as they bounced previously undefeated SMU from #15 down to #23.  Defense was optional as the teams combined for a smooth 102 total points.  Memphis scored 54 of them.  The competitive American Athletic Conference has four ranked teams.  Cincinnati is #17, Memphis #19, and SMU is #23.  All hail Navy at #25.
  8. The Florida St. alumni have seen enough.  The Willie Taggart experiment is over 9 games into year two.  Losing to the Miami Hurricanes was the last storm they would ride out.  Three wins and six losses into 2019, Taggart is out.  Florida St. is paying the $18 million buyout price.  But see below.  It’s more expensive than that.

    When the Seminoles hired Taggart away from Oregon, they agreed to pay out his $3 million buyout to end his contract with the Ducks. Florida State also agreed to pay out an additional $1.3 million that Oregon still owed South Florida when they hired him away from that school in 2016.

    So, in the end, Florida State will have paid over $22 million, across three buyouts, so that Taggart could go 9-12 with them in 21 games.

    Maybe these one percenters could help Elizabeth pay for her costly healthcare plan as well?  Surely the first game dehydration problems that Florida St. experienced would be covered.  Pass the hat before the players pass out.

  9. Football in the state of Florida is down this year.  UCF parades not.  Mullen cries a lot.  Taggart was tapped out.  Miami is meh at 5-4, and they have zero wins over top 25 teams.  Let the coaching rumor mill begin.  The Seminoles will aim high.  Urban Meyer?  Nah, he needs the healthcare plan.  Jeff Brohm anyone?  His contract with Purdue includes a buyout, but clearly that won’t stop the Seminoles.
  10. Some early lines are out.  In the two battles of unbeatens visiting LSU is a 6 point dog to Alabama while visiting Penn St is a 6 point favorite over Minnesota.

Ok, ok.  You were over served.  We know the feeling.  More is always better than less, isn’t it?  Hit the treadmill.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Ten

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As Halloween gives way to All Saints Day it’s spooky, despite some up and down weeks, how close to flat line Abby’s season to date results have been.  It’s tricky, but there’s been one treat.  Her hunch bet rang the door bell again and the candy flows.

For the season that bet is carving up Vegas like a pumpkin.  It’s 8 up and only 2 down.  The other bets are 21 up and 24 down, while the bones wagered are exactly even with 42 up and 42 down.

Lots of teams took this weekend off, but Abby never sleeps.  But, she is tired of the kids knocking on the front door.  The bobbing for apples begins below.

Kansas St v. Kansas +6 —  The Wildcats come off of a huge upset over Oklahoma while the Jayhawks upset the Red Raiders.  Abby thinks Red Raiders sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Les Miles has his team playing well.   Abby likes the six at home.  Two bones.

TCU v. Oklahoma St -3 — TCU comes off of a nice home win v. Texas.  Oklahoma St. comes home after a nice road win v. Iowa St.  Abby’s favorite movie is A Dog’s Way Home.  How bout dem Cowboy’s?  One bone.

Miami v. Florida St. -3 —  The Seminoles haven’t beaten a good team all year.  Miami isn’t a good team.  Abby thinks Seminoles sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Willie Taggart needs this one in the worst way.  The Noles cover late.  One bone.

Oregon v. USC + 4 1/2  and under 62—  Oregon needs to win out to make playoff noise.  This one won’t be easy, but we think they find a way to win but not cover in a game that actually has some West Coast defense.  One bone to win three bones.

Georgia -6 v. Florida —  Abby’s admittedly been back and forth on this game all week.  She is partial to Bulldogs and doesn’t like Gators.  But she bets with her head not her heart.  The six points seem like the side to be on in what seems like a coin flip game. But, she’s going to zig when others zag. Two bones.

The over/under points total in the Largest Outdoor (formerly known as Cocktail) Party is 45.  It seems low.  Abby thinks the word cocktail wasn’t insensitive but we digress.  She also thinks that when the line is yelling over she’ll take the under on a hunch.

Don’t you hate those cheap candy corns?

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk, Part 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Yesterday we updated the first 3 of our 5 picks.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested yesterday) to review the final 2.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk.

2.  Mississippi St. under 8 wins, bet $155 to win $100, current record 3-5

– After a 3-1 start against two cupcakes and Kentucky, the Bulldogs hit the proverbial wall.  They have lost four in a row as the schedule stiffened.

– Head Coach Joe Moorhead has to be scratching his head.  And, Bulldog alumni must be scratching theirs as well.  And, the mascot must be scratching his………  Dan Mullen took this program to high points not seen around StarkVegas in many moons.  Moorhead is in a tough spot following that act.  The SEC West is tough.  Recruiting to Starkville is tougher.

– Worst outcome.  There is no worst case for the bet unless a tornado hits Starkville (which could cause improvements actually)and cancels a game or a portion thereof nullifying the bet.

– Best outcome.  State finishes all four contests with a win or a loss.  The bet is already a win as the win total maxes out at seven even if State runs the tables.

– Outlook.  With a road trip to Arkansas, a layup (Abilene Christian University-seriously?), a loss to Bama, and an Egg Bowl battle with Ole Miss looming, we smell rotten eggs at 2-2.  A 5-7 record is a win for BBR and a big step back for Moorhead and staff.

– Prediction.  Moorhead gets one more year to right the ship, and the bet has already won $100.

1.Texas A&M over 7 1/2 wins, bet $120 to win $100, current record 5-3

– With arguably the toughest schedule in the nation A&M has won the games they were favored in and lost those that they were underdogs.

– In year two of his iron clad, ten year contract HC Jimbo Fisher, aka the QB whisperer, hasn’t whispered the right sweet nothings into the ear of second year starting QB Kellon Mond.  Hence, the hoped for leap forward has been sideways.

Worst Outcome.  A&M continues to win the winnable ones and lose the expected ones and the bet loses by 1/2 game as they finish 7-5.

Best Outcome.  The Aggies upset either Georgia or LSU on the road and win the easier remaining home games and they finish 8-4.

Outlook.  This one is tough.  We thought that they would beat Auburn which would have gotten the likely record to 8-4, but they didn’t.  SC beat Georgia in Athens two weeks ago.  Can it happen again?  Sure.  If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, thereby knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture, we’ll then predict an Aggie late season win.  If Georgia has to beat the Aggies to get to ATL for the SEC Championship game we think they will hold serve between the hedges.

Prediction.  We’ve stuck our neck out this far, why not once more?  Aggies beat UTSA and SC at home and Georgia there.  LSU beats A&M to close the season.  Aggies go 8-4 and the bet wins $100.

If our latest predictions hold true a 4-1 record and a nice payoff await.  Worst case we are probably looking at 3-2 and a positive payoff.

One prediction we can safely make is that we will be back next year with more season long predictions v. the win total.  The bet never fails to entertain, and it lasts all season long.  Well it does unless you’re Joe Moorhead, thankfully.

 

 

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most. 

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested) to review the first 3 of our 5 picks.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk. Tomorrow we conclude with the final two.

5.  Kansas over 3 wins, bet $100 to win $130, current record 3-5

–  The Jayhawks lost in week 2 to Coastal Carolina.  Jeez.  The bet would be a winner in just eight weeks if they would have taken care of a non FBS opponent at home.  We repeat, “at home.”

–  Head Coach Les Miles fired his OC on 10/6.  He announced that Brent Dearmon had been promoted to the role in place of Les Koenning, who was dismissed from the program. Koenning was part of Miles’ initial Kansas staff this offseason.  The results were immediately positive.  They put 48 on Texas and 37 on Texas Tech in the last two weeks.

– Worst outcome.  Worst case the bet pushes (no money is lost nor won) as they have three wins already.

– Best outcome.  We win the bet with one more victory with four games left.

– Outlook.  With Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma St., and Baylor left the road is uphill.  They’ll likely be underdogs by double digits in all four contests.

– Prediction.  Ole Les Miles, aka The Mad Hatter, pulls one more Jayhawk win out of his hat.  The bet wins $130.

4.  Oregon over 9 wins, bet $100 to win $105, current record 7-1

– The Ducks led until the last seven seconds in the season opener v. Auburn.  It is their lone loss to date.

– The Ducks are in the meat of their schedule but can rely on an above average defense for once in addition to their always productive O.  The road win at Washington two weeks ago was helpful.  They have their sites set on winning out to get into the playoff conversation. That’s good for the wager.

– Worst outcome.  If the Ducks take on water and paddle to a 1-3 or 0-4 finish the bet could still tank.

– Best outcome.  A 3-1 or 4-0 finish makes the ticket a winner.

– Outlook.  Oregon finishes with at USC, home Arizona, at Arizona St, and home Oregon St.  They are favored by 4 1/2 v USC this week.  It’s the toughest game left for them, though an Arizona St. night road battle could be troublesome.  The two home games are wins if they come to play.  Mario Cristobal has had them ready for every game so far.

– Prediction.  A loss to USC and three wins to close out the season makes their record 10-2.   The bet wins $105.

3.  Kentucky under 6 1/2 wins, bet $100 to win $100, current record 4-4

– The Wildcats up and down season was expected as a program like this would struggle to replace what Bennie Snell and Josh Allen brought to the team last year.

– A bad effort and loss to Miss St. was offset by a put down of Missouri this past weekend 29-7.

– Worst outcome.  With three games remaining at home and all four games winnable, the bet crashes and burns.

– Best outcome.  An improving Tennessee team follows up last week’s win with another this week in Kentucky and Vandy at home knocks them off the week thereafter.  That puts them at 6-6 at best.

– Outlook.  After the two games above they host TN-Martin and Louisville.  TN Martin is a win and if they need a win over in state rival Louisville at home to get bowl eligible they might just show their teeth.

– Prediction. – TN Martin gives them 5 wins.  Can they win two of three from Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Louisville?  The Wildcats O struggles to score against good defenses, but we only see one decent D on this four game dance card.  It says here that they win three of the last four to finish 7-5, but we are still quite hopeful that they could finish 6-6.  The bet loses $100.

Tomorrow we’ll review the final two, Mississippi St. under and Texas A&M over.

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Time for your nuggets.   Time for a diet too.   There were too many boudain balls consumed this weekend by the staff covering the LSU-Auburn game live.  Grilled below are the tasty, but healthy treats with a side of some AP Top 25 NCAA football teams and their performance or lack thereof.

  1.  There is a new #1.  LSU beat it’s third top 10 opponent this season on Saturday.  Auburn fought hard, but came up short on a soaked field Saturday in BR.  For the first time this year the D carried LSU’s O.  The next “Game of the Century,” a term used far too often obviously, takes place in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 9.  LSU travels to Bama for a #1 v. #2. throwdown.  And throw they will.  It’s also a Tua v. Burrow throwdown.   It has a Heisman making moment opportunity written all over it.
  2. THE and Clemson remain entrenched at #3 and #4.  One or both will benefit from the Game of the Century loser’s drop.  Though, the first playoff poll comes out a week from today.  Maybe the committee will see the on field performances differently that the AP writers?  THE still has Penn St. and Michigan on their dance card.  Clemson has a bunch wallflowers.
  3. Poof!  There went Oklahoma.  Undefeated and #5 last week is old news now as Kansas St. put 48 on the Okie D winning 48-41 in a game that wasn’t actually 7 points close.  Penn St. rose one to #5.  You aren’t elite if you cannot play D.
  4. Florida is #6 and can take control of the SEC East this week as it’s one loss team travels to Jacksonville to meet one loss # 8 Georgia.  The World’s Largest Outdoor Party, formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,  will eliminate one team from playoff possibilities and elevate the other.  Speaking of eliminate, did eliminating the word “cocktail” from the moniker reduce the alcohol consumption?  We think not.  But it is PC.
  5.  Here comes the PAC 12.  A week ago Oregon and Utah were #11 and #12.  A week later they have risen to #7 and #9.  Both one loss teams keep stacking up solid victories.  And this coming weekend they’ll have a chance to continue that.  Oregon beat Washington St, always a pesky opponent for them.  Utah shut the door on the California Bears 35-0.  Their objective is to keep winning and meet in the PAC 12 Championship, take a look at the carnage around them, and argue that they deserve a Power Five Conference Champion shot at the final 4.  It’s possible with the collisions that will take place between teams currently ranked higher.
  6.  Oklahoma dropped 5 spots to #10, and Auburn dropped but two to #11 with the above mentioned losses.  Notre Dame dropped from #8 to #16 after Khaki Boy and the Wolverines pounded them in Ann Arbor.  The next time that we need to listen to ND inclusion in the playoff conversation will be 2020 at best.
  7. Two weeks ago undefeated Wisconsin was sitting pretty at #5.  Two weeks and two ugly losses later, the most recent a 38-7 trouncing by THE, Whisky checks in at #18.
  8.  Their losses have opened the door for someone to walk through from the west side of the BIG 10 to be a double digit dog to either THE or Penn St. in that conference championship tussle.  Golden Gophers any one?  Yep.  The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 8-0 and stand at unlucky #13.  Minnie has played exactly zero ranked opponents to date.  But, they’ve beaten everyone that they have played.  With Penn St., Iowa, and Wisconsin dead ahead for Minnie, beating everyone that they have yet to play will be a tall task.
  9.  Baylor and SMU have also beaten everyone that they have played.  They are both 8-0 and sit at #12 and #18 respectively.  Baylor has a path as Texas and Oklahoma loom.  Beat them both and shout your name loudly.  Maybe the playoff committee will hear you.  SMU really doesn’t.  Speaking of Texas, they fell all of the way out of the top 25 with a 37-27 loss to TCU.  Like Oklahoma, Texas is soft on D.
  10. Some early lines are out.  Oregon travels to USC and is a 4 1/2 point pick.  Utah travels to Washington and is a 2 point fav.  The PAC 12 gets picture gets much clearer come midnight Saturday EST.  Also, after a few cocktails in Jacksonville, Georgia will be a four point favorite over Florida.

It looks like a salad week to me.

..

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Nine

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas giveth.  Vegas taketh.

We should have known better.  Abby’s nose was warm to the touch last week.  She felt like a dog.   But she insisted that she had a hunch about the games and the lines.  It turns out that she was right on her hunch bet again and wrong on most all else.

For the season she has won 19 games and lost 21.  More importantly she has collected 38 bones and lost 37.  If you haven’t been on her hunch bet after a 9-2 season last year, you should be on it this year.  It’s now 7 wins against only 2 losses.  Bow wow!

Abby’s nose is cool bordering on cold and so is the fall football weather.   Abby’s chasing winners this week, no more parked cars.

Mississippi St v. Texas A&M -10 1/2 —  In a marron and white v. maroon and white game Abby likes the home unis.  A&M has more to play for.  Moo St. looks like it might be closing down shop for a long winter.  Two bones.

Indiana v. Nebraska -2 1/2 —  In a red and white v. red and white game Abby likes the home unis.  As the morning frost melts Scott Frost’s tenure at Lincoln needs to heat up.  Indiana is a surprising 5-2, but Big Red rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas -1 1/2 v. TCU  —  Tom Herman’s tenure at Texas needs to warm up, too.  And, Texas needs a defense.  It took 50 points and a last second field goal for them to dispatch Kansas.  Jeez.  Abby thinks Herman gets them going this week, and the Burnt Orange rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas Tech v. Kansas +3 1/2 —  Les Miles fired his previous OC three games in after they scored all of seven on Costal Carolina.  The result a few weeks later?  They put 48 on Texas last week.  If only he did the same at LSU a few years back.  Jeez.  Jayhawks win this one straight up.  Two bones.

California +21 1/2 v. Utah —  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14 much less 21 and change.  This seems like a lot of points in what should be a low scoring game.  One bone.

On a hunch take Washington St. plus 14 1/2 at Oregon.  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14.   Washington St. usually plays the Ducks pretty closely.   Maybe the Cougars can lose a close shootout after Oregon’s big road win over Washington a week ago.

Woof.