ncaa football

Raising the Bar

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Setting goals is a tricky business.  Set them too high and you’ll disappoint yourself and those that bought into the false hope.  Set them too low and achieving them isn’t really a success nor a motivator.   Setting goals for sport teams is equally tricky for the exact same reasons.  Fan support and donor support hang in the balance.

Let’s use a Gamecock as a Guinea pig for an example.  What is a realistic yearly goal for Head Coach Will Muschamp and his South Carolina football team?

SC competes in the SEC East.  They play Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt each year in the east.  They have Texas A&M from the west as their designated rivalry yearly game and rotate among Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St,, Ole Miss, and Arkansas as their other west opponent.  You have four SEC games at home, and four on the road each year.   They select/control who their four out of conference opponents are and where they play those games.   One choice that they always make is Clemson.  The instate rivalry “Palmetto Bowl” is 115 games old and counting.

It should be noted that this year’s schedule rotated in the west to a tussle with Alabama.  All of the above makes one wince.  Survive that gauntlet and the reward is the SEC Championship Game against the best from the west and a to be determined bowl game.  SC joined the SEC in 1970.  A championship still escapes them.

Ready to set the goal to keep everyone moving in the same direction to achieve it?  Good luck.  Good luck unless some realism, if not publicly stated, is at least privately understood.

After being impatient in latter part of the 20th Century,  SC has been patient in the 21st.  Lou Holtz in 2000 gave way to Steve Spurrier in 2005, who retired in 2015.  Enter volatile Will Muschamp.  Four years later SC competes hard on the field.  Their upset of Georgia in Athens two weeks ago proves that.  The report card for Holtz was a 45% winning percentage turning around a downtrodden program in four years, 63% under the ole ball coach, and 55% for Muschamp’s tenure.

Is Oklahoma St. or Texas Tech the SC of the BIG 12?  Is Michigan St. or Minnesota the SC of the BIG 10.  Is Washington St. or California the SC of the PAC 12?  It seems so.  So do you accept the bar and try to shimmy over it more than not?  Or do you raise the bar and attempt to do what you haven’t done in a long, long time or even forever?

How do you move up to that higher bar?  Money, cheat, culture, system?

Okie St. chose the money route thanks to T. Boone Pickens.  Mike Gundy’s team has had a few moments, but no breakthrough yet.  Tillman Fertitta is pouring money into Houston to try the same from a lower bar.

Ole Miss chose the dishonest route.  Hugh Freeze’s college coaching career is on ice because of it, and Ole Miss is fighting to stay out of the cellar in the SEC West.

Mike Leach brought his fun and gun system and mentality to Wash St.  It’s been fun, but it too hasn’t broken through.

Dabo Swinney changed the culture and expectations at Clemson though they had a more storied past to recapture the magic v. establish it.

We think that a game Muschamp is going the culture route hoping recruiting and money will follow.  His 3-4 record season to date matches his recruiting rankings relative to his competition thus far.  A season ending date with Clemson still looms.  Jeez.

There’s much satisfaction and financial reward for whomever can sustainably break through to challenge the big boys.

It’s an admirable goal.  Is it realistic?

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s Monday and it’s time to take a look at the NCAA football  and it’s AP Top 25.  Week eight is in the books, and we cook up ten nuggets to review it.

  1.  Alabama remains entrenched at #1.  They won the home game against Tennessee 35-13, and lost a QB in the process.  Tua Tagovailoa underwent surgery for a high ankle sprain yesterday and is expected to be back for the early November showdown with LSU, who remains at #2 after a 36-13 win at Mississippi St.
  2.  Clemson’s won 45-10 over Louisville on the field.  But, off of the field they lost one place in the polls.  They are now #4 after Dabo Swinney told reporters that his sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence had four really bad plays in the game.  Their loss was THE Ohio St University’s gain as THE climbed to three.  THE beat Northwestern all sixty minutes long in a 52-3 Friday night blowout.
  3. Oklahoma #5 and Penn St #6 round out the top six teams all with 7-0 records.  Oklahoma stayed at #5 while Penn St jumped into the spot formerly occupied by fellow Big 10 school Wisconsin.  Whisky looked hungover all Saturday afternoon losing to lowly Illinois 24-23.  James McCourt kicked a 39-yard field as time expired and Illinois pulled off the biggest upset of the college football season bar none.  The Badgers dropped a steep seven spots to #13.  Their playoff dreams are now a headache and need two aspirin.  Penn St jumped to a 21-0 lead at home over Michigan then held on to win 28-21.  Jim Harbaugh’s team suffered another loss to a big time team in a Big Ten game in a big time moment.  He decided to question the officiating. “It’ll be interesting to compare some of the different scenarios in the game, in terms of calls,” Harbaugh said.  Perhaps a look in the mirror would be interesting as well.
  4. Florida and Notre Dame begin the parade of 6-1 clubs at #7 and # 8 respectively.  Florida hoped over ND moving from 9 to 7 a week after their first loss as they fought off a game South Carolina Gamecocks team in the rain in SC.  Will Muschamp had a few choice words for a few refs after a few bad calls and non calls post game.  He said he had nothing more to say about it.  Then, almost under his breath he uttered “gutless” describing the refs decision to flag him for unsportsmanlike conduct.    His wallet might be a few “dollars less” after the NCAA takes a look.  ND was idle before they travel to Michigan this week.
  5. Auburn jumped two spots back into the top ten at #9 after running over Arkansas 51-10.  Arkansas is a bad football team.  Their fake punt, which you can see here, could be the worst designed special teams play, well, ever.  The Auburn Tigers travel to Baton Rouge for a top ten showdown/throwdown with the LSU Tigers Saturday.
  6.  Georgia wore down Kentucky 21-0 in the mud and rain in Athens a week after they were upset by SC.  Georgia threw for a measly 35 yards all game on just 12 attempts.  Kentucky one upped that, or one downed that, throwing for a measly 17 yards on 18 attempts.  If you missed the game you don’t have to brag about it.
  7. Oregon and Utah rep the PAC 12 and are ranked #11 and #12.  Oregon’s season opening, last seven seconds loss to Auburn is deep in the rear view mirror now.  The Ducks went to Washington and escaped with a fine 35-31 win.  They’ll need help to climb back into any playoff discussion.  But with only two road games left of the five remaining, at USC and at #24 Arizona St., they do have an outside shot as others ahead of them square off.
  8.  Baylor says hello, remaining undefeated after an impressive road win at Oklahoma St. 45-21.  The Bears are 7-0 and have Texas and Oklahoma visiting Waco in mid November.  Baylor moved up four spots from 18 to 14.
  9. SMU 7-0, Minnesota 7-0, and Appalachian St. 6-0 round out the undefeated teams at #16, #17, and #21 respectively.  Much like Rodney Dangerfield it seems they get no respect.  Boise St. was undefeated but got bounced at BYU by the Cougars.  Boise St fell from 14 all the way down to 22.
  10. A few early lines are out.  THE Ohio St. U is a home 14 point favorite over Wisconsin.  LSU is a home 12 1/2 point favorite over Auburn.  Michigan is a surprising home 2 1/2 point favorite over the Fighting Irish.

Don’t leave your plate in the sink.  Put it in the dish washer please.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby began the second half of the NCAA football season more like a lion roaring than a dog barking last week.  Vegas called and offered her a comped dog suite this week complete with a mani and pedi bar, lap pool, and a dog run in hopes of getting her back to the sports book.  For the week she won four of five against the spread, collected a very impressive eight of nine bones, and punched the hunch bet ticket yet again.  Vegas needs to try to get even.

For the season Abby’s four paws stand at 19 wins and 16 losses, winning 38 and losing 29 bones wagered, and improved her hunch bet to a gaudy six wins and only two losses.

As a reminder each bone is the hypothetical equivalent of betting $11 to win $10 as Vegas takes the $1 juice when they win.  So in winning 38 bones she has collected $380 (38 x $10).  In losing 29 bones she has lost $319 (29 x $11).  The net take season to date is $61 on a win percentage of 57% (38/67).   If you bet $11 on each hunch bet you would have won $60 while giving back only $22.  Enough with the calculus, and on to this week’s opportunities.

It’s big spreads and big home dogs week.  Abby loves home dogs, but is wary of big home dogs and big favorites.  In the top 6 Alabama, LSU, THE, Clemson and Wisconsin are all on the road and are favored by an average of 27 points while Oklahoma is a 33 1/2 home favorite.  Woof!  Be careful.

Purdue v. Iowa -17 —  Iowa’s offensive scores are few and far in between.  Iowa’s defensive scores allowed are even fewer and farther in between.  Purdue has underwhelmed Abby to this point.  It’s a Big 10 grind and an Iowa win 33-10 with a late cover.  One bone.

Florida -5 v. South Carolina and Under 46 1/2 —  Will Muschamp, fresh off of a huge road upset over Georgia, hopes that his team can keep the mojo going at home.  Dan Mullen, fresh off of a 42-28 LSU road loss, hopes his Gators can recapture the mojo that lead to the 6-0 start.  Abby will pair the Gator win with the under.  Both teams scored a lot last week, while this one sets up to be a slobber knocker.  One bone to win Three Bones.

Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4—  Has Abby ever mentioned that she loves home dogs?

The Orangemen’s season is basically on the line here.  They are one of the bigger disappointments season to date in the Power Five Conferences.  Abby is sniffing an outright win, but will wag her tail if she gets a cover.  Two bones.

Florida St. +2 v. Wake Forest —  Willie Taggert said last week that his team is close to being “right there” again in the ACC.  Then they went out and got worked by the Clemson Tigers.  If there is any fight left in the Seminoles (seems like an offensive name to Abby) they’ll win straight up.  Two bones.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St -4 —  On paper this almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Abby has been long on the resurgent Bears all year.  But, the line and the spot seem right for a Cowboy victory by about a touchdown.  We’ll call it 38-31 Okie St.  One bone.

Oregon v. Washington +3 —  Abby chases ducks whenever possible.  Her Husky friend does the same.  Oregon seems to be the best in the west by a fair margin.  But, we see two loses on their tail feathers and this is the second and final one.  One Bone.

On a hunch Abby is taking LSU v. Mississippi St. under 62 total points.  LSU has nearly averaged that on their own this year.  But.  This game is sandwiched in between Florida and Auburn.  LSU runs the ball a lot this week, rests several regulars, serves a few more suspensions, and plays some D to hold Moo St. to less than 17.

Start spreading the news.  Abby also likes the ball in Verlander’s hand tonight.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Seven

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to believe but after Saturday 50% of the regular NCAA season will be gone.  But, 50% remains.  And, what remains will be the better half as conference play is now the norm.

Abby and her bank account reaches the halfway mark just a bit ahead of that 50/50 area.  For the season her picks are 15 up v. 15 down.  The more important bones collected are 30 up and 28 down.  And, her amazing (dog) run on hunch (LY was 9-1) bets continues this year, now standing at 5 wins and only 2 losses.

Halloween is still three weeks away.  Some of the lines are a bit spooky.  Bravely, to the boneyard we go!

Virginia v. Miami -2 —  Virginia’s head coach is a Broncho, but Miami’s team speed is a Mustang.  It’ll be 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity down there tomorrow night.  Miami sweats out a late Cavalier drive and wins by more than 2 and less than 7.  One bone.

Oklahoma v. Texas +11 —  Texas upset Oklahoma last year in the Red River Rivalry.  A few years back this was called the Red River Shootout.    The PC crowd was upset about the violent name.  Nobody in the Big 12 plays violently, so what’s the big deal?  Expect a lot of scoring in this shootout.  Oklahoma gets the win, but so does Texas and the points.  One bone.

Mississippi St. v Tennessee + 7 —  This is Abby’s game of the month. How much better can it get?   It’s a bulldog vs. a blue tick hound!  And, the hound dog is a live home dog.  A straight up win by the Volunteers is possible.  There might even be a dog pile in the checkerboard endzone post game.  Four bones.

Cincinnati v. Houston + 7 1/2 —  The Bearcats are riding high after a home upset of UCF and have arrived in the AP Top 25 this week at #25.  They might leave H Town with a straight up loss and fall back into the dreaded “others receiving votes” mix mash.  One bone.

UAB -12 v. UTSA —  This is the eye chart game with all capital letters.  So far this year UAB passes the eye test.  That little bird that Abby keeps telling us about has a birdseye view of this one.  One bone.

The left coast has been great to Abby for hunches that win bunches.  Last week 16 point favorite Washington lost straight up to Stanford.   This week they are favored in Tuscon by 6 over the Arizona Wildcats.  Abby feels like the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona.  On a hunch she likes the Huskies doggone it.

 

Abby has again assigned the BBR staff to cover the LSU game live.  Work, work, work.

Woof, woof, woof!

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The used to be Monday, that turned into Tuesday NCAA football Ten Piece Nuggets, slid all the way to Hump Day this week.  The foray into all that is Daryl Morey occupied our eyes and ears yesterday.  That said, it’s never too early in the season, or late in the week, to worry about the dreaded winter weight gain.  To help you manage your weight, we deep fried just eight nuggets this morning.

  1. The weekly AP Top 25 is (has been) out.  And, frankly it’s boring.  Maybe this week, as we get into the conference schedules a bit deeper, will be the “oh wow, that happened” week.  Stop us if you heard this before, but Alabama and Clemson remain one and two.
  2. THE Ohio St moved into a tie with Georgia at #3.  THE beat up an average, then #25 and now unranked, Michigan St. team.   Why this was impressive is yet to be determined.   We suspect the Northern block of voters banded together to dot the letter “i” in Ohio St. much like the sousaphone player in the band does weekly.  Georgia beat Tennessee (doesn’t everyone these days?) by 29 and somehow lost a smidgeon of ground.  Maybe UGA the dog can dot the “i” as only he can in Georgia next time.
  3. Florida jumped three spots up to #7 with their “game of the week” win in The Swamp over a great D, and average O, Auburn team.  Florida has a “D” in their name and a “D” on the field.  Auburn turned it over several times.  If you are a Florida fan you can say that the Gators took it from them if you prefer.  Auburn’s Bo Nix joined a litany of freshman QB’s to go on the road in a big SEC contest and come away looking like the freshman they are.   Auburn has LSU and Georgia in the next three weeks.   Good luck.
  4. Florida has LSU this week in another swamp.  This one is in Baton Rouge.   College Game Day will airboat in for the contest.  LSU is favored by an eyebrow raising 13 points.  LSU’s offense in the last 13 years hasn’t averaged 13 points a game in SEC clashes it seems.  Joe Burrow, who now geauxs by Joe Burreaux, leads a Tiger offense that has scored an SEC all time record of 273 points after five games.  Lee Corso is sharpening his pencil and trying on Tiger gear.
  5. Wisconsin stands 5-0 and tall at number 8.  They have shut out opponents three times in five games this year.  Impressive even if those three opponents were not.   Junior RB Jonathan Taylor is averaging 7.2 yards a carry, and has 16 touchdowns in five games.  He wants one of the three chairs inside of the Downtown Athletic Club in NY in December.  Michigan St. tries to slow down the big red machine this weekend.  Good luck.
  6.  Who is the highest ranked one loss team?  It’s Notre Dame at #9.  They host USC under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus this weekend.  They are a win over the Trojans and a few upsets away from sneaking back into the short list conversation for the playoff four.  Ye have of little faith you say?  While conference teams beat up conference teams, ND only has one ranked team left on their schedule.  It’s Michigan next week in Ann Arbor.   Michigan’s record under Jim “Judge Judy” Harbaugh against ranked teams gives one little reason to believe that ND loses a verdict in another game this year.
  7. The PAC 12 continues, like Rodney Dangerfield, to get no respect.  Oregon is #13 and the highest ranked team from the conference.  Utah checks in at #15.  And, don’t look now, but the Arizona St Sun Devils moved up to #18.  Respect for the conference will need to be earned, not given.
  8. Wake Forest, Baylor, SMU, and Memphis might feel like they get no respect as well.  They are all undefeated and ranked anywhere from #19 to #23.  The Baylor Bears leaped 10 voting spots to jump in at #22.  It’s the first time they have been ranked since 2016.  Next week’s nuggets are free if you can guess the Baylor head coach?  It’s Matt Ruhle who left Temple after 2015 to guide the then disgraced Baylor program back after a disastrous on and off the field year.  On the field they went 1-11 that year.
  9. SMU, and coach Sonny Dykes are actually one spot ahead of Baylor at #21.  Dykes salary of $3.5 million and Rhule’s of $3 million are a combined $1 million less than Jimbo Fisher’s yearly haul from another Texas school.  A&M is ranked a bit below both at #24.  Bama makes a whistle stop in College Station this weekend.  If you were all aboard the Jimbo train when he was hired, you might want to see the Aggies slow down the Alabama “bang, bang choo choo train, come on Bama do your thing” Crimson Tide.  The Red Elephants are favored by 17.
  10.  Another savior anointed in Texas is/was Tom Herman.  His $5.75 million yearly takes on Lincoln Riley and his $4 million in the Red River Shootout.  Savior Herman’s team beat Riley’s Oklahoma Sooners last year.   And, the Tea Sippers went wild.   Vegas isn’t impressed.  The Sooners are installed as an 11 point favorite.  It seems like a lot of points to the BBR research/analytical/gambling department.

It’s always nice to get 10 when you were expecting 8 nuggets isn’t it?  You couldn’t help yourself.  We understand.  You were over served.  We know the feeling.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Six

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Psst.  You heard the one about the old dog and new tricks?  Don’t tell Abby.  She walked around the global headquarters of BBR last week with the hair standing straight up on her back.  She subscribes to the Vince Lombardi mantra, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”  And after last Saturday, Coach Lombardi, from high above is proud of Abby.  Her picks cashed on four of the five games.  Even better than that, the bones won were nine of the ten wagered!  Woof, woof!  Her hunch bet also pawed the paydirt.

For the season Abby is now 13 of 25 on the picks, and importantly 25 of 48 bones.  Her hunch bet is now four up and only two down.  That’s enough scratching of her back.  It’s time to get back to the work of the weekend ahead.

Tulane v. Army +3 — It’s Homecoming for the Cadets.  Abby’s barking about a straight up win.  Abby wonders if Tulane’s D can stop the Army’s ground attack?   Is the right team favored?  Two bones.

Texas v West Virginia +10 1/2 —  WVa is a much better team at home than the road.  She likes home dogs.  Might Texas be a tad bit sluggish on the East Coast coming off of a bye and looking ahead to the Red River Shootout v. Oklahoma next week?  Abby says the Horns pull this out of the fire late, something like 35-31.  Two bones.

Auburn v. Florida (over 49) —  Lee Corso can put on a Gator, War Eagle, Plainsman, or Tiger hat and all Abby will do is yawn.  This one is billed as a mighty defensive struggle.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.

Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 —  Ole Miss isn’t very good.  The cellar of the West Division of the SEC awaits.  Vandy is worse.  The cellar of the East Division of the SEC awaits.  It’s tough to wager too much on a bad team, but Abby is yapping loudly about the Black Bears.  Two bones.

Utah St. v. LSU (under 73) —  LSU’s new fangled offense is due for a pit stop somewhere on this record setting road, isn’t it?  Conversely, LSU’s defense is past due at the toll booth, isn’t it?  Abby might be chasing a parked car here.  But, with an 11 AM kickoff she’ll beat the rush hour.  Three Bones.

Abby mentioned last week that no one deserved to be a double digit dog in the PAC 12 v. anyone else in the PAC 12 except maybe Oregon St.  On a hunch take Stanford +16 at home v. Washington.  Abby is a big fan of The Tree for obvious reasons.

The uncharacteristically slow start to the season looked like it aged Abby almost one dog year.  No more.   The bounce is back in her stride.

Enjoy the games as the conference tilts are upon us.

Woof!

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Flip the page on your calendar this AM.  October has arrived.  And, thankfully with it will come some Power Five NCAA in conference football games.  We’ve had far too few as there is an extra weekend built into the schedule. Week six is here.  We review week five with a Ten Piece Nuggets order to chew on below.

  1.  The new AP Top 25 is out.  Clemson’s near loss was Alabama’s gain.  Saturday the Tide rolled Ole Miss 59-31, and yesterday they rolled into the top spot in the latest poll.  Alabama has this coming weekend off before they roll into College Station next weekend.
  2.  It’s hard not to like Mack Brown directing his NC Tar Heel team to go for the win at the end of their 60 minute donnybrook with Clemson.  It’s hard to like the play that was called however.   Clemson escaped with a 21-20 win.  They haven’t been playing as well as some others early on.  Maybe this near loss and a drop to no. 2 will do them some good longer term this season.  They too are idle this weekend before Florida St comes calling next weekend.
  3.  Georgia was off Saturday and remained at #3.  Number four LSU was too.   However they dropped to #5 as the voters were impressed by THE Ohio State University taking all of the corn that they wanted back home from Nebraska.  They shucked the Cornhuskers 48-7.   You have to harvest before the first frost.  Nebraska’s Scott Frost has a long way to go to bring Lincoln back to relevance.
  4.  The rest of the top ten remained as it was except Notre Dame moved up one as Florida moved down one.  They are now ninth and tenth respectively.
  5.  Florida has a chance to erase that little drop and then some this weekend.   Lee Corso, his pencil complete with eraser, and the gang descend on The Swamp for ESPN’s College Gameday.  The Gators host Auburn in a #9 v. #7 showdown.   Both teams look very strong on defense.  Both teams are undefeated.  Something has to give.  It should be a rock ’em sock ’em afternoon in the heat and humidity.  Kickoff is set for a steamy 3:30 pm eastern.
  6.  There was a good bit of bouncing around in the lower half of the polls.  No one moved more than Arizona St. though.  A week removed from a disappointing home loss to Colorado, the Sun Devils went to Berkley and beat the Golden Bears.   Herm Edwards and crew entered the top 25 at #20 jumping from a previously voted counted #37 spot.  California was the last undefeated PAC 12 team.  The state of California signed into law a bill that allows NCAA players to be paid for using their image/likeness starting in 2023.  Maybe the PAC 12 will have a national contender again by then.
  7.  Virginia dropped from the unbeatens and slid five to #23 with their loss the the Fighting Irish.  The Texas A&M Aggies dropped to #25 even though they won.  The voters were underwhelmed by the year to date underwhelming Aggies as they held on late to beat a 23 point underhog (see what we did there?) by four.
  8. Who’s the second best team in the ACC?  Florida St.?  Miami?  Virginia?  How about Wake Forest?  The Demon Deacons are a very quiet 5-0.  They check in at #22.   The schedule stiffens from here.  But, for now they’ve beaten everyone in front of them to date including the pesky bunch of Carolinans from just up Tobacco Road.
  9. Say hello to SMU.  They are ranked for the first time since the football program received the death penalty for NCAA rules violations in 1987. The 5-0 Mustangs entered the poll at #24 after winning 48-21 at USF on Saturday. They’re off to the school’s best overall start since 1983, with three road wins under their belt including a then ranked TCU.  Under second-year coach Sonny Dykes, the Mustangs are playing their best ball since the Pony Express days of Eric Dickerson and Craig James.  Hey Cali, Texas was already paying it’s players way back then.
  10.  Some early lines are out.  That matchup of the week has Auburn a three point favorite in The Swamp over Florida.  Washington is a whopping 14 1/2 point road favorite over Stanford.  Texas travels east to West Virginia as an 11 point favorite.   The three home dogs and the points seems like a fun three team parlay.

The entire BBR staff is traveling to BR for an 11AM LSU v. Utah St. Saturday kickoff.  They will also be in that number to cover the Saints hosting the Buccaneers the next day.  The work never ends.

October is here.  Footballs are flying.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby promised to make money rain last week.  Unfortunately the “bad beat” gods rained on her instead.  Two games v the spread were lost by 1/2 point in her regular picks.  Her hunch bet had a dog house, back door late cover by 1/2 point as well.  Oh well.   For the season Abby has won 9 of 20 picks.  Her bone collection is buried in some backyard mud at 16 of 38.  Hunch bets have won three, and lost but two.

Week five features games almost as underwhelming as week three.  Only one top 25 matchup is on the card.  It’s # 10 ND hosting #18 Virginia.  Abby isn’t yapping about the choices, but she isn’t napping just yet either.  It’s time for this doggie to give the readers a treat, and to the picks we go.

Clemson v North Carolina +27 —  The Mack Brown miracle has been put on pause.  Clemson has hit its stride.  It’s a good spot for a back door cover to get even with last week’s beats.  One bone.

Iowa St. v Baylor +2 1/2 —  Abby loves home dogs.  She especially loves it when she thinks that the wrong team is favored.  Three bones.

Minn v Purdue + 1 1/2 —   Did we mention that Abby loves home dogs?  Did we mention that she especially loves it when she thinks that the wrong team is favored?  One bone.

Kansas St v Oklahoma St. – 4 —  Kansas St. has played better in year one without Bill Snyder than expected so far.  Oklahoma St. is smarting from a loss in a valiant effort v. Texas last week.  Abby says the Cowboys cover late in a lower than expected total score.  Three bones.

Penn St -6 v Maryland —  Before Abby heads in for her nap, she wants everyone to know that she thinks America is sleeping on the Nittany Lions.  Expect Maryland to be fired up at home, but expect Penn St to wear them out late.  Two bones.

Does any PAC 12 team deserved to be favored by 10 points over any other, Oregon St. aside?  Washington is favored by 10 over visiting USC.  The line seems out of bounds.  Hunch bets are made on outliers.  She thinks that Vegas is screaming at you to take USC.  She’ll take the Huskies, a favorite dog of hers to begin with.

Abby is a day early this week for logistical reasons.  It’s better than a day late.  And, her picks aren’t a dollar short.

Woof!

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The Ten Piece Nuggets are a day late but not  a dollar short on quality below.  This writer and the entire BBR staff was in Nashville doing some research for an upcoming expose’ on Vanderbilt football or a lack thereof.  Put your napkin in your lap.  Here they are.

  1.  The latest AP Top 25 came out Sunday.  There was some movement both up and down for the first time in a couple of weeks.  The top six (THE moved from 6 to 5 and Oklahoma drooped one to 6 from 5) were quiet.  Ohio St. squeaked by a slightly out manned Miami of Ohio squad 76-5.
  2. Notre Dame was seven and they fought hard in Athens, Ga. but lost 23-17 and dropped to 10.  It’ll be hard, but not impossible, for them to climb back into the playoff conversation from there.
  3. Wisconsin was the big winner on the week.  Their demolition of Mr Khaki’s, aka Jim Harbaugh, and his Wolverines vaulted them from 13th to 8th.  Harbaugh is making top five coaching money in Ann Arbor.  His record in five years there is 0-4 against Ohio State, 1-9 vs. top-10 opponents, 0-7 as an underdog, 1-6 on the road against ranked opponents, and has five losses by at least 21 points, including three of their last five games.  Pundits spend the entire off season talking about coaches on the hot seat.  We wonder if they missed one.
  4. Auburn’s Gus Malzahn was named on a few of these “experts” lists.   They are ranked 7th after a solid road win in College Station over the Aggies.  Known for his offensive genius, maybe he should get some credit for a mean, athletic defense that misses very few tackles.  Maybe he gets to keep his job for a bit longer after all.
  5. Top five coaching money gets deposited weekly in Jimbo Fischer’s checking account too.  After a road loss to Clemson, and a home loss to Auburn the A&M program sits at 2-2.   The schedule still has three undefeated to date teams in Georgia, Alabama, and LSU on it plus a home date with 3-1 Mississippi St.  It looks like Kellon Mond hasn’t taken a step up in year two of Jimbo’s QB whispering yet.  Therefore, the Aggies haven’t yet either.  With 75 million guaranteed over 10 years Jimbo’s chair comes equipped with a cooling device.  The Aggies polled at #23.
  6.  The PAC 12 says don’t forget about us.  They have teams at 13,15,17,19, and 21.  Five consecutive odd numbers for five somewhat odd teams.  No. 13 Oregon’s season opening loss to Auburn looks less damaging by the week.  Who has the nation’s longest defensive “held under 24 points scoring streak of 15 games?”  That’s California saying hello at #15.  The Golden Bears beat the Black Bears (formerly known as the politically incorrect Rebels) in Oxford. MS.  Cali is the PAC 12’s only undefeated team four weeks in at 4-0.
  7.  Washington hammered BYU in Utah 45-19 and moved up five to #17.  Utah, a five point favorite, lost on Friday night to USC and is #19. That’s a tough loss for a team with high hopes for 2019.   Mr. Hot Seat himself, Clay Helton, has his Trojans riding higher on the horse at 3-1, and is on his third QB in doing so.  Maybe the climate really is changing in LA as his hot seat has cooled considerably with the solid start and doing so with a 3rd string QB for now.  USC is ranked 21st.
  8.  Two non Power 5 “thorns in your side” teams moved in opposite directions.  On Friday night Boise St. beat a pretty good Air Force team and improved to 4-0 and are ranked 16th.   Meanwhile, parade plans in Orlando got rained on.  U. of Central Florida, UCF, slid from 15 to 22nd.  Pittsburgh handed them a 35-34 road loss in a game that wasn’t really as close as it’s final score.
  9. With ND (10th) at Virginia (18th) the only game between two ranked opponents this coming weekend, and with College Gameday just in Georgia when they played ND, the crew will descend upon Lincoln, Nebraska this weekend.   The unranked Cornhuskers host THE Ohio St University.  Scott Frost is trying to turn a once storied program around.  Vegas thinks this won’t be the week that it starts.  They have THE installed as a 17 point road favorite.  Will Lee Corso even consider putting on Lil’ Red’s hat, aka Herbie Husker?  He won’t if Kirk “Herbie” Herbstreit, former Buckeye, has anything to say about it.
  10. We took a long look at the coming weekend’s early betting lines for interesting ones.  They are few and far between.  One that caught our eye was Stanford is only a four point road favorite at Oregon State.  My oh my, how far and how quickly has the Cardinal program fallen this year?  Stanford beat Northwestern to open the season, but dropped three in a row to USC, UCF, and Oregon since.  Might Stanford head coach David Shaw feel a touch of global seat warming?  Not yet.

Yesterday was the first day of fall.  Fall, football, and Ten Piece Nuggets go together like hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby had some extra time to analyze her picks this week.  A tropical storm named Imelda visited her neighborhood and dropped a lot of rain.   Abby stayed high and dry watching game film.  She needed to.  Her season is off to a just below water start.   Through three weeks Abby has correctly picked 7 of 15 games and garnered 14 of 29 bones bet.  Her hunch bet, a sterling 9-1 last year, continues to hold water at 3-1 this year.  Arizona St. plus and the game under the total was a win win for her last week.  The well researched picks are below.

Utah -3 v. USC — The Utes are simply better than USC.  And they are better than the Trojans by more than a skinny field goal.   And they are way better if they trade for a rifle as Washington St. coach Mike Leach hysterically runs down that possibility in a must see 90 second video here.    Two bones.

LSU v. Vanderbilt +24 —  LSU is 3-0 v the spread.  LSU has numerous starters missing this week due to injury or suspension.  The kickoff is 11 AM.  We wonder if the Tigers won’t be a bit sleepy in the first half.  Two bones.

USA v. UAB – 10—  That bird that told us UAB is a good bet last week told us it’s a good bet this week.  Abby is a bird dog.  Make sense?  One bone.

Okla St. v Texas -6 1/2 —  This game is usually a shootout.  It might well be again, but doggone it Abby thinks Texas gets a stop or two on D to open the game up by a couple of scores in the fourth quarter.  Three bones.

UCLA +18 1/2 v. Washington St. —  Chip Kelly was famous 10 years ago.  UCLA was last good roughly ten years ago.  They are bad now.  So is Kelly’s coaching thus far.  Abby wonders if the Cougars won’t be looking ahead a bit to next week’s Utah matchup. One bone.

The Texas A&M/Auburn game total is only 47 1/2.  That seems low doesn’t it?  On a hunch Abby barks about it not being low enough.  On a hunch take under the total.

Put on your poncho this weekend.  With the bets above Abby will make the money rain.