ncaa football

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby urged caution last week, and a tricky week 2 in college football betting it was for all.  No bets are free unlike all of the promises of free she heard last night in Houston emanating from the ten Democratic Presidential Debate podiums where begging was very much in style.

Through two weeks Abby is a below average 4 games of 10 picked correctly.  More importantly she’s gathered 11 of 21 bones, just enough to balance the checkbook an have a gnaw too. Her hunch bet (Maryland -1.5) covered and then some.  To the picks we go.

Kansas St. @ Miss St. -7.5 —  Who is the loneliest person in Starkville?  The tooth fairy of course.  Let the cowbells ring.  This one won’t be close.  Three bones.

NC St. @ West Virginia +7 —  Is NC St. that good to be made a 7 point road favorite?  Is WVa that bad to be made a 7 point home dog?  One bone.

Maryland @ Temple +7 —  Maryland has scored 142 points in two games, good for the fourth highest point total in NCAA history.  The nation took notice.  We think they spent this week admiring the shine on their Terrapin shell.  One bone.

USC @ BYU +4 —  We aren’t sure that the correct team is favored here.  We thought about the money line.  Abby will settle for making money at plus 4.  One bone.

Florida -8 @ Kentucky —  Dan Mullen might be one of the most underrated Power 5 college coaches in America.  Florida’s D is quick to the ball and wraps up like a Gator death roll.  Kentucky’s QB is out and you don’t replace Josh Allen and Bennie Snell easily in Lexington.  Close, but the Gators cover late.  Two bones.

On a hunch Abby likes Arizona St. plus 15 and 1/2 to cover v. Michigan St.  The over/ under in the game is only 41 and 1/2.  It’s so low.  It’s so, so low.  On hunch #2 we’ll take under on a zig bet when others zag.

And, lastly we have an important announcement.  Abby is considering a run for President.  Her platform does not include free universal veterinarian care for pooches nor free meals for strays.  She has, however,  promised to fulfill her obligation to BBR throughout this football season.   Whew!

Woof!

Ten Piece Nuggets- Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

NCAA, NFL, and MLB dominate the menu today.   There is much to chew on.  The Ten Piece Nuggets are served.

  1. The new AP Top 25 poll is out following Week 2 action.   LSU has moved into the top five after beating Texas 45-38 in a thrilling affair in Austin on Saturday night. With LSU jumping Oklahoma to take the No. 4 spot, the SEC now has three of the top four teams in the country, as the Tigers join No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia.
  2. It’s very early in the season and these things sort themselves out when conference play starts in earnest.   The Big 10 might have plenty to say about it as well.  They check in at spots 6,10,13,14,18,19, and 21.  So, that’s seven spots for the Big 10 conference that actually has 14 teams.  Got it?
  3. Big 10 Maryland’s got it.  They are #21 in the poll after a 63-20 pounding of Syracuse Saturday.  This follows up a 79-0 blasting of Howard.  The combined 142 points are the fourth most in NCAA history in the first two games of any season.  It was but a few years ago that the Terrapins were lower than a turtle’s belly.  Kudos to former New Mexico HC and Bama OC Mike Locksley.  This is year one for him in the Maryland HC role after a 1-5 interim record when he took over for fired Randy Edsall from the Maryland staff in 2015.
  4. The Big 10 is scoring big time too.  Penn State has scored 124 points, Wisconsin 110, Ohio St 87, and even Indiana has 86, all in two games.  Maybe the rust belt has rolled out some shiny new offense models off of the assembly lines.   It’s on to conference play for them mostly as well.  Though Maryland goes to Temple, and curiously is only a 7 point favorite.
  5.  It wasn’t the best weekend for the great state of Texas in football.  The Longhorns played well, especially on offense,  but lost to LSU as mentioned.  Texas A&M played pretty good defense, but Clemson played better defense and won 24-10.  BBR thinks both teams are on the rise and wonder when the regular season is done if Texas might be 10-2 or even better and A&M around 9-3.  Texas dropped three spots to 12th, while A&M slid only four to 16th.
  6. Washington lost at home to a California team that actually plays decent defense, 20-19.  That leaves Utah at 11th, Oregon at 15th, and Washington St. at 20th.  The PAC 12 continues to disappoint on the national stage.  Other disappointments have to be Florida St., winners over Louisiana Monroe 45-44 thanks to a missed extra point in extra time.  At least they seem hydrated this week.  Syracuse forgot to play defense against Maryland and surrendered 63.  Two AP writers actually voted for Syracuse to still be in the top 25.  Lots of sportswriters and sportscasters go to Syracuse’s fine journalism school.  This might have been two of them.  Tennessee is now 0-2 with a second non conference loss at home.  This time BYU beat them which was an upgrade from a Georgia Southern debacle a week ago.  Note to the Volunteers, the SEC schedule is way tougher than that.  Pruitt needs to prove it, and soon.
  7.  Swinging over to baseball, we ask, ‘where are the pennant races?’  The closest division has the Cubs trailing the Cardinals by 4 games.  That one isn’t over, but with only about 18 games to go, it isn’t terribly close either.  The race for the best record in baseball is on though.  With it comes playoff home field advantage throughout.  The Yankess and the Astros are tied at a sizzling 95-50, while the Dodgers are two back at 93-52.
  8. Even the wild card races aren’t dealing aces.  While the Indians and A’s are only a half game apart for the last spot in the AL, the Rays look like they are in.  In the NL, Washington is two ahead of Chicago who is two ahead of Arizona for those two wild card spots.  Yawn.
  9. The NFL kicked off season 100.  We refuse to read too much into week one.  Or do we?  New England looked like New England.  Miami is roster purging and lost 59-10 to Baltimore.  If you live in Miami you can always enjoy the beaches, especially South Beach.  Speaking of south, The NFC South is 1-3 and the AFC South is 1-3 after one week.   Do the Falcons make it through the year without a coaching change?  Dan Quinn looked like a rising star four years ago.  Now, it looks like Arthur Blank has a DIY project to fix them.  Luckily he’s a Home Depot kind of guy.
  10. Is Antonio Brown fixable?  Master craftsman Bill Belicheck starts the remodel this week.  It’s a project.   BBR wishes the entire mess would get far less air time.  Brown makes yesteryear guys like Keyshawn Johnson ( “just throw me the damn ball”) look like choir boys.  Less talented players who disrupt like this would be out of the league by now.  This is the last whistle stop for Antonio.  We hope.

Sports has it all in fall.

You may be excused.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby’s offseason wasn’t spent howling at the moon.  Her rigorous research began to pay off in week one.  While only two of five against the spread picks cashed her bones won were six while her bones lost were only four.  We’ll take 60% money all season long if we can get it.  Her hunch parlay bet split(lost), as the under covered and the over fell just shy.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).

That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.  Remember one bone equals $11 risked to win $10.

She urges great caution every year in week two.  Over reactions to good or bad play in week one can feel like chasing parked cars come late Saturday night.

Wake Forest at Rice +20 — Rice isn’t a very good football team.   But, they are beginning to play a bit if D in downtown H town.  And, it’s hot in downtown H Town.  Very.  100 degrees hot is predicted at game time.  That’s why smart Owls only come out at night.  One bone.

UAB -8.5 at Akron —  A little bird is chirping in Abby’s ear about UAB being a smart money play all year.  Abby normally chases birds away, but she’s embracing this one.  Two bones.

Texas A&M +18 at Clemson — Betting against Clemson is indeed like a dog chasing the proverbial parked car.  Abby has a soft spot for Reveille, the A&M mascot, but won’t let puppy love interfere with money.  A&M is a legit dog.  Three bones.

BYU at Tennessee -3.5 —  One of Abby’s credos to live by is to “never kick a blue tick hound when he is down.”  This one falls squarely in the over reaction of week one category.  Tennessee looked like road kill in week one.  Three bones.

Miami -5 at North Carolina —  Dorian the Hurricane is pounding the North Carolina Outer Banks as Abby digs through these lines.  The Miami Hurricanes, if they can fix their woeful OL blocking, will do the same to the Tar Heels.  The sunshine was on Mack Brown for a week.  It’s raining now.  Two bones.

The line of Maryland -1.5 hosting Syracuse makes no doggone sense to us.   When it seems so odd Abby likes to play a hunch bet.  Take Maryland over a 21st ranked Orangeman team that might be looking ahead to hosting Clemson next week.

Enjoy the games and say a prayer for The Bahamas and for New Mexico St.  They go to Tuscaloosa, AL as a 56 point dog!  Woff!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Aboard in College Station

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one more big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  So far we have shared four of our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Our favorite pick follows after the drum roll provided by the historic Fightin’ Texas A&M Aggie Band.

Texas A&M (7 and 1/2 wins, over -120, under -110)

  • On the surface this choice might surprise.   After all, A&M probably has the hardest schedule in the nation.  They have road games at Clemson, Georgia, and LSU.  And, Alabama rolls in to College Station like a freight train as well.  Their entire schedule is here.
  • One tier down is Auburn, Mississippi St., and South Carolina.  The lower half SEC West foes Arkansas and Ole Miss complete the conference scheduling.
  • Texas St., Lamar, and UTSA out of conference are three very needed breathers interspersed on the fall death march.
  • Jimbo Fisher enters year two of his needed cultural remake of the Aggies.  Kellen Mond improved over the last half of last season.  Jimbo, the QB whisperer, continues to mold the Mo(u)nd of clay.
  • The offense will miss Jace Sternberger at tight end and Erik McCoy at center.  Both will play well on Sunday, not Saturday, this fall.  But the receiving corp is deep and talented.  The running backs are more than serviceable.  The offensive line will be just fine.
  • The defense loses five solid defenders from a tough to run on group.  But, still they return five starters.
  • Fisher’s first recruiting class ranked third nationally.  Expect significant contributions from there as the season unfolds.

After last year’s, last game, seven overtime win over LSU Fisher addressed the group.  He said, “this is the last time we’ll celebrate finishing second in the SEC West.”  The buy in on the sell in is nearly complete.

We expect A&M to upset one of Clemson, Georgia, Alabama,  or LSU.  They are good enough and coached top to bottom quite well.  We expect them to beat Auburn at home and run the table on the rest of the tough Western Division. South Carolina(east opponent #2) isn’t that good and the game is in Aggieland.

A&M will score early and often this year.  Their defense will surrender some early but gain steam late.

We see the Aggies as a 9-3 team best case, and 8-4 worst case.

Give us the over on the Jimbo train that pulled into CS a year ago.

Over and out!

P.S.  LSU’s win total is 8 and 1/2.  We cannot see them as worse than 9-3.  On a hunch (Abby would be so proud) bet take the Tigers at -125 on the over.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you have a good start on better health resolutions for the new year of 2019, good for you.  If not, it’s always a good day to get started.  Below are ten healthy nuggets CFB style to invigorate your resolve even further.  Digest them as you please.

  1. Despite all of the November angst when the college football playoff selection committee divulges its weekly rankings, the cream inevitably rises to the top.   Playing the “what if” team X loses and team y beats team z sells beer commercial time on sports shows.  It does little else.  Alabama and Clemson’s body of work to this point have separated them, yet again, as college football’s finest.
  2. This will be the fourth consecutive meeting between the two schools in the playoffs.  It will be the third time in the final as Bama took out Clemson last year in the semis.   The two teams have lost seven games combined in the last four years.  Three of those losses come when facing each other.  Throw those out and the two are a combined 107-4 versus all other teams.  That’s a 96% win percentage.  Everyone else has been playing for third place. How long might this continue?
  3. Third place doesn’t matter too much unless you are a fan of one of a handful of teams who might want consolation bragging rights for the next few months.  Notre Dame and Oklahoma entered the playoffs ranked third and fourth respectively.  BBR thinks that it’s more that the music stopped and they had a chair to sit on than it was that they had separated themselves that much from teams ranked 5-8.
  4. Criticize ND all you want if you feel like they really weren’t a top four team.  But don’t shoot the Irish for their schedule.  Schedules are made years in advance.  I doubt anyone thought three or four years ago that Stanford, USC, Virginia Tech, and Florida St. would be collectively as down as they were in 2018.  Add wins over Pittsburgh, Michigan, Northwestern, and Syracuse and you have had the makings of a solid strength of schedule.  Their season opening win over Michigan looked better and better as Michigan piled up wins.  It quelled ND naysayers and got them on to the doorstep of the final four before the Wolverines imploded.
  5. Criticize Oklahoma all you want if you feel like they really weren’t a top four team.  But don’t shoot the Sooners for their offensive firepower.  Criticize them for their defense or lack thereof.  Oklahoma gave up 40 points or more in six games this year.  Six.  Serious contenders for championships are minimally above average in all three phases of the game and really good at two or more of them.  Oklahoma’s D doesn’t pass that test even though their offense passes all over everyone.
  6. Of the teams bunched in the 3-8 spots all were good, none were great.  THE Ohio St. looked listless three times, but lost only once.  It was, however, a shellacking by an average Purdue squad that got worked by Auburn during bowl week.  The aforementioned Michigan was worked by THE in the Big 10 showdown.   As Peach Bowl participants they enjoyed the festivities leading up to the game v. Florida.  Apparently they pulled the rip cord and decided not to participate in the game itself.  Florida finished strong, but hiccupped early.  UCF has a fun team that has no beef in the trenches to compete in real big boy football.  Georgia was on the short list for a while, but Bama set them back and Texas beat them soundly.  Texas closed strong.  But 4 L’s are 4 L’s.
  7. The power five conferences were bunched together in their collective bowl performances with no clear standouts or failures.
    1. 4-3 Big 12
    2. 5-4 Big Ten
    3. 6-5 SEC
    4. 5-5 ACC
    5. 3-4 PAC 12
  8.  BBR thinks that Wisconsin, Washington, and Miami were pretty big 2018 disappointments relative to their talent, their competition, their schedule, and therefore their final body of work.  We were quite surprised by Kentucky, Washington St, Cincinnati, and Utah St.
  9. It’s just about 230 days till the 2019 season kicks off.   Watch out for Texas, Florida, and Texas A&M next year.  If Herman, Mullen, and Fischer were a law firm they would be tough in a courtroom.
  10. Before the 2019 season kicks off, the 2018 season has just that one game left this coming Monday night.  Is another Bama v Clemson matchup good or bad for college football?  BBR thinks it is neither.  It just is what it is.  Enjoy the amazing talent and depth of same on display.  The NFL scouts do.
  11. (one leftover)  We say again that the targeting rule, interpretation, in-game review, penalty, and player suspension resulting from it is in need of serious review itself.  The NCAA can move like an overweight sloth at times.  We hope that this is not one of those times.

Enjoy the FBS Championship.  The turf in NoCal this time of the year is bad terrible.  Abby wagged her tail and barked Clemson 33-31 just so you know.