ncaabetting

Abby Picks, Year 5, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Like a smart thoroughbred, Abby saved ground around the first two turns, and let the amateurs battle it out with Vegas.  Now, she is an entry in week three and sees an opening in the field.  She starts off her season with a few winners below.

  1. FSU -1 1/2 @ Louisville-To have a little Friday action, she thinks that FSU might have turned the proverbial corner.  Tonight’s game in Louisville will be a tell.  FSU for one bone.
  2.  Georgia @ South Carolina + 25 1/2- Georgia is suddenly getting Alabama-like respect from Vegas.  USCe is getting no respect at all.  Call it the Rodney Dangerfield pick of the week.  USCe for one bone.
  3. Penn St @ Auburn +3 1/2 and Vanderbilt + 2 1/2 @ Northern Illinois-  Getting SEC schools and points is like throwing bones at Abby.  She’ll take them both and pair them in an SEC parlay.  Auburn and Vandy for one bone to win three bones.
  4.  Oregon -3 v. BYU- Oregon lost by 46 to Georgia and beat Eastern Washington by 56.  Does that mean Georgia would beat Eastern Wash by 102?  Maybe.  The Ducks need to win tomorrow night by only 4.  Oregon for one bone.
  5. Marshall @ Bowling Green +16 1/2–  This is a pure letdown and an on-the-road bet against Marshall.  Do you know what South Bend, IN, and Bowling Green, OH have in common?  Nothing.  No respect at all.  Go Bowling for two bones.
  6. Miami @ Texas A&M -6 1/2-  This is a pure “given up for dead” bet for A&M.  App St took A&M’s lunch money last week in College Station.  If only they would have taken their yell leaders as well.  Aggies for three bones.

Hop on these bets now and you’ll win at least enough to hop on a free flight to Martha’s Vineyard next week.

Woof!

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 7

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Back in the late 70s, Reggie Jackson earned the moniker Mr. October for his assassin-like clutch playoff hitting.  A few(very few)Vegas watchers are beginning to wonder if Abby is on her way in the 20s to earning the nickname Ms. October for her assassin-like assault on the NCAA betting lines.

Another strong week brings the season she’s stacking up to 22 wins against 15 losses while winning 35 tasty bones and losing 18.  Her hunch bet lost last week, so that tally stands at 5-1.

Stay humble, we constantly remind her, as the Vegas Penthouse and the Vegas Outhouse accommodations are just one week’s reservations apart.

  1. Clemson -13 at Syracuse —  Abby’s been off of a down Clemson year.  But she thinks these Tigers get a dead cat bounce up north.  One bone.
  2.  Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech +5 1/2 —  This looks like a very live home dog.  The ML is tempting for a straight-up win as well, but give her the points.  One bone.
  3. Michigan St at Indiana +4 1/2 —  The Spartans have been playing winning football all year.  Indiana is a bit of a disappointment vs expectations.  Saturday the script flips.  One bone.
  4. Army at Wisconsin -14 — Abby barked for Army three weeks in a row.  She’s fading them now.  Whisky did her right a week ago, and she’s back for another round.  Two bones.
  5. Arizona St pick at Utah — What goes up and down more than a yoyo?  A Sun Devil.  Abby likes the Utes at home.  One bone.
  6. Oklahoma St at Texas -4 — The loser of last week’s epic Red River Showdown throws down.  Abby likes this one so much it scares her a bit.  Three bones.
  7. TCU at Oklahoma -13 1/2 — The winner of last week’s epic Red River Showdown might be in for a letdown.  A back door (or doggy door) cover is possible.  Nonetheless, Okie can score points in bunches.  One bone.

Mississippi can score points in bunches, too.  But the over/under at Rocky Top is 83 1/2.  On a strong hunch, Abby likes the under.  She also likes the Tennessee blue tick hound.

Four chalks, one pick, and two dogs.  It’s a bit against the norm.

Woof.

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sometimes the tail wags the dog.  Not this dog.  Abby Roux is riding the wave.  Four total points stood between her and a perfect week two.  So it goes.  She’ll gladly take it.

The results in week two were identical to week one.  That brings the season totals to six wins v four losses, ten delicious bones won v six lost, and the hunch bet is two and oh so fine.

Week three seems tricky.  Picks follow.

  1.  Michigan St +6 1/2 at Miami —  Something about this line troubles Abby greatly.  Is the wrong team favored?  She hopes.  It’s a bit more humid in Coral Gables than in East Lansing this time of the year.  That said, take the Spartans plus six and a half for one bone and straight-up(+190) for one bone wagered to win two.
  2. Mississippi St. at Memphis +3 1/2 —  Is the wrong team favored, part two? This is the beginning of the end for Mike Leach.   The money line isn’t great, so one bone on the plus.
  3. Central Michigan at LSU -19 1/2 —  Hopefully the wrong team isn’t favored here.  LSU has done nothing in two games to inspire any confidence much less be favored by this much over a high school team.  Did we mention that Abby likes to zig when others zag?  Two bones.
  4. Arizona St – 3 1/2 at BYU —  The Sun Devils historically trip over their pitchforks in a spot like this. Herm Edwards is in year four in Tempe.  UCLA in week one, and Oregon in week two got big out of conference wins for the PAC 12.  Ariz St. does as well in week three.  One bone.
  5. Florida St +4 1/2 at Wake Forest — Nobody circles the wagons like the Seminoles, do they?  They’ll need to after a devastating loss last week to Jacksonville St.  Wall Street calls this a dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats, so she approves of this Wall Street metaphor.  One bone.

Alabama, favored by 14 1/2, travels to Gainsville to beat Florida this Saturday.  The over/under is 60 and 1/2.  Abby thinks Bama’s D will come to play.  On a hunch, she’ll take the under.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 10

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas wins when you tie.  It’s called the vig (also known as juice, the cut, the take, the margin, the house edge).  Abby won three (including a fun parlay) and lost three bets last week.  One was a brutal, slim 1/2 point non-cover.  So close. So far.   She won five bones and lost five bones.  The hunch bet game got “Covided out” yet again.

Viola.  Vegas loves a week like that.  It keeps you coming back for more.  And, more is below.

The season stands even at 24-24-1, the bones are still good at 41-32, and the hunch is stuck at 2-4.

  1. Notre Dame at North Carolina +5 1/2 –  A straight up win would not shock Abby Roux.  She’ll take NC to cover but suffer a heartbreaking last-second loss.  One bone.
  2. Oregon at Oregon St +14 1/2–  Home teams are a theme for her this week.  An angry home team in a rivalry game formerly known as The Civil War (that’s insensitive to say now but we digress) is even better.  One bone.
  3. Iowa St at Texas -1 – She takes yet another home team, and this one is nothing if not inconsistent.  Tom Herman has to win games like this in year four, doesn’t he?  Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Florida under 61 and 1/2 and LSU at Texas A&M under 63 –  Alabama put 63 on Kentucky by themselves. Over is an easy peasy cover here isn’t it?  Abby always loves a good zig when others zag.  It’ll be raining cats and dogs in College Station.  Half of that is always one of Abby’s favorite weather events.  One bone to win three.
  5. Auburn +24 and 1/2 at Alabama – The Iron Bowl always has a surprise or two within the 60 minutes.  Bama wins but as Lee Corso always says, “It’ll be closer than the experts think.”  Abby doesn’t think it’ll be too much closer, but enough to cover.  One bone.
  6. Miss St at Ole Miss -9 1/2 – The Egg Bowl features the two newest and biggest coaching personalities in the game today.

    Points will come quicker than playing a pinball machine.   Kiffin is going to run up the score if he gets a chance.  Two bones.

There you have it.  Four home for the holiday’s teams in five games, and two under the total score tied into a parlay.  That’s eight bones wagered with a chance at winning 10.

On a hunch, bet the opposite of all of the above.  It’s a novel approach in the year of the novel virus.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sometimes Vegas giveth.  Sometimes Vegas taketh.

Last week Sin City took just a bit from Abby.

Her season-long w/l is now 19-17-1.  The most important bones are a fine 33-23 in her favor.  And, the beleaguered hunch bet is now 2-4 after it hit paydirt with a Florida cover.

Lots of games ran afoul of the pandemic this week.  The pickings are slim, but Abby dug up a few for you to gnaw on.

  1.  Miami at Va Tech -2 – This is the fourth line in the last two weeks that looks so wrong that she thinks it’s right.  One bone.
  2. Notre Dame at Boston College +14 1/2 – This is the ultimate “let down after a big win, go on the road, win but don’t cover” bet.  Abby tried this after Texas A&M beat Florida last month.  We found out that A&M wants to play hard all year.  It did not cash, but this one will.   One bone.
  3. Arkansas +17 1/2 at Florida and under 60 – Florida might still be scoring this morning on that Georgia D.  But, Abby smells a let down this week.  Arkansas +17 1/2 smells good, and under 60 smells even better.  One bone to win three bones.
  4. Army at Tulane over 47.   Both teams can score but in very different ways.  Can Tulane defend against the Army ground attack? No. Can the Army defend against the Tulane air game?  No.  Two bones.
  5. Baylor -1 at Texas Tech – We think that this is a good spot for team Aranda to put on its best defensive showing this year.  One bone.
  6. Wisconsin at Michigan + 4 and 1/2 – Jim Harbaugh said after the latest Michigan disappointment that he thought his team was really close.  Really close to what Abby inquires?  That said, this is a classic “overlooked, they are done, they will quit, no they won’t” spot.  One bone.

NBC just called Arizona for the next President of the United States.  It only took 11 days.  Abby is calling Arizona +14 1/2 over USC and Arizona St – 3 1/2 over California right after the polls close Saturday.  It’s a one bone to win three bones vote to get the hunch over the hump.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Three, Week Two

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby is feeling fine after a tough kennel cough a week ago.  Her picks picked her up a bit as well.  It was a very good week.  For year three she’s now 10-5-1 in wins and losses with one tie.  The most important bones won are 15 v only seven lost.  Boom.  The hunch bet is out to lunch thus far at 1-2.  Times’ a wasting and Abby is 24 minutes from this deadline.  Briefly, we pick.

  1.  Houston +5 v. BYU  – Houston is legit for who they are.  BYU will realize that 12 hours from now.  A straight up win by the underdog would not surprise this dog.  One bone.
  2. Auburn -3 v South Carolina  – This line is so sweet it almost worries her.  Two bones.
  3. Kentucky at Tennessee -5 1/2–  We’ve ridden Tenn the last half of last year and every week so far this year.  Ain’t no stoppin’ us now.  Two bones.
  4. Ole Miss -1 1/2 v. Arkansas-  Arkansas has a legit coach which has turned a bunch of scallywags into a decent team.  But they lose a close one this week.  One bone.
  5. Georgia at Alabama -4 1/2–  Georgia has a D.  Bama has an O.  Bama has a head coach with Covid-19.   Close till quarter four, then hear Bama roar.  Two bones.

On a hunch we are going to take a subscriber’s advice and take a time out this week on the hunch bet.

Eight bones.  Four SEC chalks.

Wear your mask.  It might help.  It might not.

Woof.