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Ten Piece Nuggets-Sports and Politics

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

“Two Ten Piece Nuggets in one week?” you ask.   “Yes,” we affirm.

And why not?  BBR wants to do its part to end world hunger.  And, in 2020 the sports and political world gives us far too many nuggets to not share.  Enjoy them randomly below.

  1.  Thomas Sowell tweeted yesterday, “If not a single policeman killed a single black individual anywhere in the United States for this entire year, that would not reduce the number of black homicide victims by one percent.”  Police reform, not defunding, sounds good.  But, since the Movement wants change isn’t it time we add to the dialogue to address the 99% as well.  Sowell did, and good for him.
  2. Clay Travis tweeted yesterday, “So in the state of Iowa it is safe to play football for the Iowa State Cyclones this fall, but not safe for the Iowa Hawkeyes to play football.  Big Ten should be ashamed & Iowa football fans should be irate.”  If the Big 12 folds late as the Big 10 did early, then the point is moot.  But, for now, it’s logic is, well, illogical.
  3. Speaking of the Big 10 and the Big 12, way back when there was the Big 8.  Nebraska was perenially competing for its championship as well as the then mythical National Championship.  The Big 8 went poof and so did Nebraska’s vaunted wishbone attack.  Nebraska joined the Big 10 (which has 14 teams so its name makes no sense) and hoped for greener pastures.  They’ve been average on the field at best.  Now, they’ve been told that there will be no chance this fall to be average.   Off of the field, strong rumors are floating around the NCAA world that Nebraska’s AD is shopping his team to other conferences.
  4. You knew it would only take a bit of time for Trump and his team to mockingly nickname Kamala Harris, Biden’s VP pick.  Well, that didn’t take long.  “Phoney Kamala” it is.  And, as an added bonus, he’s added to his arsenal for Joe Biden.  “Slow Joe” has joined “Creepy Joe” and “Sleepy Joe.”  Frank Sinatra sang, “I Did It My Way.”   Trump must love the song.
  5. But why stop with the name-calling there?  Trump tweeted this AM “very poor TV ratings for MSDNC’s Morning Joe, headed by a complete Psycho named Joe Scarborough and his ditzy airhead wife, Mika, and also @CNN, headed by complete unknowns.”  It must be election time.  The gloves have come off, way off.
  6. But what’s in a name anyway?   For Kamala Harris, it’s the mispronunciation of it.  We were reminded, and some were scorned, by the press repeatedly yesterday that it’s pronounced “comma la.” Then yesterday afternoon Slow Joe (what’s in a name anyway?)  took the podium to formally announce his running mate.  He pronounced it “Ka mal ah.”  Somebody put up a tent over this circus, please.
  7. And then there is the raging controversy over whether “Comma La” is African American or not.  It’s always important to know your roots and times five these days if it helps with the narrative.   Her father is of Jamaican descent.  Her mother is Southern Asian, or Indian if you prefer.  So, there is no African origin it seems.   Is she black?  Yes, 50% black.  But, if we aren’t supposed to see color anymore, why do we argue over our color?
  8. Never let a national or international crisis peter out without political gain.  That’s what savvy and greasy politicians say and do.  And, some get funded by George Soros.  He agrees.  In an interview with La Repubblica, an Italian daily newspaper, the Hungarian-born Soros denounced Trump as a “transitory phenomenon” and expressed hope that the COVID-19 crisis has opened up politics in a radical direction.  He’s nothing if not consistent.
  9. Yesterday was three years to the day since the Unite the Right rally brought thousands of white nationalists to historic Charlottesville, Virginia. James Alex Fields, Jr. purposely drove his car into a group of counter-protesters, killing one and injuring many.   Joe Biden went on the attack yesterday telling whoever was listening that Trump talked about how there were good people there too.  Does Biden remember that he attended former US Senator, friend, and close colleague of his Robert Byrd’s funeral ten years ago when Biden was VP of the land?  Byrd was an active and known KKK member for many, many years.  There are no more glasshouses, only stones.
  10.  Guess who is leading the MLB NL East Division?  It’s the Miami Covids.  Er, it’s the Miami Marlins who had an outbreak of COVID-19 just a week into the season.  Upwards of 15 players and five staff members were quarantined and their season was put on hold.  They stand atop the East with an 8-4 record.  But, they’ll need to make up quite a few games as most teams have played 18-20 games by now.  Can their arms on the hill hold up having to play so many in so few days?  It’s unlikely.  But it is 2020.

Deep breaths.

Friday is near.

 

 

 

 

Go On, Take the Money and Run.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Schools out for summer.  Schools out forever.  So sang Alice Cooper.

We always got the summer part.  We never understood the forever part.

Perhaps, now we do.  During these (are you ready?) new normal, COVID-19 pandemic, #aparttogether, together apart, times are changing.  Unprecedented is the time we are told repeatedly.

And with it, our sacred fall NCAA football season is in peril.

It’s one thing for the Ivy League to cancel its fall sports season.  No one watches them anyway.  How about paying a full year’s tuition to Harvard for virtual classes and no sporting life?  If they keep this up pretty soon they won’t have anyone falsifying records and puffing up resumes to get into that dump, but we digress.

But it’s quite another thing when the Big 10 announced yesterday that at best they will only play an in-conference schedule of football games this fall.  Gone amongst other matchups are Oregon and THE Ohio St. U, and Notre Dame v. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.

Isn’t the appropriate question “why?”  Why drop non-conference games?   The smart money yesterday told us it was about player safety and schedule flexibility.  We think that the smart money forgot to tell us that it’s about money as well.  Isn’t it always?

The argument for safety is that the Big 10 (and when others like the Big 12 and the PAC 12 schedule similarly) can insure across the conference protocols for regular testing and appropriate quarantining while out of conference teams may not have the same.  We can’t have this virus spreading you may have heard.

The argument for flexibility is that you can start the season earlier, later, or provide off weeks within as medical needs warrant.  If you’re only going to have 10 games you’ve found two more weeks within the season plus already scheduled off weeks to rearrange all of it as needed.

Ah, but the argument for money is very real as well.   If you’re going down to ten games, you play bigger opponents every week.  More gate if there is a gate and more TV money follows.  If you’re Michigan St. do you keep Ball St. on the schedule and not pick up a game against Nebraska?  Duh.  Plus you can collect insurance for the canceled Ball St. game.

So, the bottom line is that the Power 5 conferences will find a path, if there is one, to maximize the money.  It’s refreshing that they think his way when the malcontents run around wanting socialism and guerilla gardens in its place, but we digress.

But what about the non Power 5 teams like Ball St.?  Apparently, the answer to the question is the question, “what about them?”  Their guaranteed pay of a million or more to get waxed by the big boys is gone.  If their fans cannot attend their games most all of their revenue is gone too.

Then the question becomes, “are their sports programs gone?”

If they have no football they have no revenue to support the other programs.  If no football, no women’s lacrosse.  For the little guys, is football out for fall?  Is football out, as they currently know it, forever?

Go on, take the money and run.  So sang The Steve Miller Band.

The Glass of Water is Half Full

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to look past Minneapolis this morning.  A terrible act of violence is being compounded by multiple bad decisions by city, state, and federal officials.  But, we will look past it.

The glass of water is half full this AM.  Believe it.  The nation had an outdoor party last weekend and a short work week as well.  It’s time to build on that.

Let’s talk about football.

Many plans have been put in place by both the NCAA and the NFL.  For now, with many fingers crossed, it seems like both will start on time and play before live audiences.

Given where we were a few weeks back, we’d be happy if the stadiums could only be, like the glass of water, half full.

For the Jacksonville Jaguars that would be business as usual.  Don’t laugh Rams fans. You’ve been practicing social distancing ever since your team decided to move back a few seasons ago.  The Chargers stadium has been full (all of 30k capacity) but it’s been with opposing fans. Shame, shame.

That aside, plenty of fun is straight ahead we hope.  We hope.

Can Joe Burrow be a savior in Cincy?  How cool will the stadium nearly on the Vegas strip be?  Tom Brady is the QB in Tampa!  What does NE look like without Tom?  Can KC repeat?  How bout dem Cowboys?  Phillip Rivers leads Indy in a wide open division.

Were the LSU Tigers a one-hit-wonder, or is Coach O building the program to another level?  Who will emerge this year from the pack to surprise?  Florida anyone?  Alabama sat home when the playoffs began.  Nick’s probably pretty mad about that.  THE Ohio St. is recruiting so well you’d almost think they were paying their players.  Does Texas get on the national stage?  Oregon is coming.  USC wants to make some noise too.  Is it still Clemson and their sons in the ACC?  Will Oklahoma actually field a defense?  Is Mississippi big enough for two egos named Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin?

We could go on.  And on.  Instead, we’ll pat ourselves on the back for our season win total winners in the NFL in San Fran(over) and Oakland (over) as well as a winning season in bones wagered, hunch bets, and wins for ABBY in the NCAA Friday column.

Soon enough it will all be here.  It’s under 90 days and counting right now.

We’re going to have a weekly bet column from here till the week one kickoff.  It’ll cover a wide range of propositions, teams, divisions, and cover both college and pro.

If you have a thought to share along the way, or a suggestion for a prop bet, drop us a comment or three.

Otherwise, fire up the smoker.

 

 

Trickle Down Faces Fourth Down

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In 1980 as newly inaugurated President Ronald Reagan strode into the Oval Office the American economy was a mess.  Interest rates reached double digits, unemployment was nearing the same, and inflation was rampant.

One of his economic team’s solution bets was to dramatically reduce the higher and eliminate the highest federal tax rates on the books.  The phrase “trickle-down economics” was born.  In essence if you incent the rich the poor would benefit was how opponents spun the policy.  Political opponents of the Reagan administration soon seized on this language in an effort to brand the administration as caring only about the wealthy.

The holy Reverend Jessie Jackson actually used his outrage against it, or “Reaganomics” as it also was mockingly called, to rally his minority base and make a run a the Democratic nomination a time or two.

Today, we face severe economic challenges as well.  While interest rates and inflation are quite tame, we have unemployment levels not seen since the Great Depression over 100 years ago.  Our economic challenges are different, varied, and numerous.

And, like it or not, the effect of “trickle-down” economics is in full view all over again.  If a business cannot open, it’s employees can’t work.  If they can’t work, the gas station sells less gas.  And, so on and so on.

One such “so on” is college athletics.  Yesterday, ESPN published a story with some staggering facts about what has happened in the spring of 2020 to the programs, and more importantly what will happen if there was no college football.  In short, the loss would total $4 billion dollars to the Power Five school’s revenue. It would alter, if not eliminate men’s and women’s revenue loss programs and decimate the administrations that manage them.

But one stat caught our attention more so than all of the others.  Of the 52 public (private ones have no legal need to share revenue info) Power 5 schools included in the Syracuse University study, only 3.8% cite football ticket sales as their biggest revenue source 2017-18.  That’s but two teams of the 52!

The fallout, therefore, from game day sales of shirts, parking, booze, concessions is significant.  If you have no games, you have no parking attendants. Unemployment.  Your popcorn vendor can keep the kernels.  Unemployment.  The t-shirt manufacturer can keep the ink dry.  Unemployment.  The beer distributor can keep the hops. Unemployment.

Even if social distancing forces limiting stadiums to half capacity; half of yesterday is 100% more than nothing.

TV revenue is the most important source of income from these events for many colleges.  The TV trucks don’t drive to the location. The production team stays home.  The TV station ad salesman sells no ads.  The ad agency produces fewer ads. Unemployment times four.  You get the picture, but not on your TV.

Trickle-down, like it or not, is our economy.

How many schools’ athletic departments saved for a rainy day?  Just about as many as American businesses both big and small.

Are you hoping and praying that you will actually be able to see live college football this fall?

So are several institutions and industries that live for live football.

They bet on the trickle-down effect yearly for their livelihood.

 

 

 

2020 NCAA Football. Kickoff or Punt?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Although it’s never really the offseason anymore, the NCAA football programs usually enter the offseason filled with questions that need answers.  This offseason was no different on the questions part.

Schools are out for summer and plenty of the questions remain.  A few that were answered are subject to change.  That is life in 2020 as the biggest questions still loom and the answers remain unknown.

Will colleges play football in the fall?  Will the NCAA allow it?  Will the virus allow it?

We offer eight questions below and offer more than eight answers.  It’s always good to hedge your football bets.

  1.  Will the NCAA dictate if and when the schools, teams, and conferences can kickoff.  No.  They’ll give generalized recommendations, but NCAA President Mark Emmert already stated that there will be no uniform start date this fall suggested by the for now governing body.
  2. Why did he say that?  He said that because he is smart enough to know that there isn’t one answer across hundreds of schools and fifty states.  He is also smart enough to know that the Power 5 conferences are watching carefully.
  3. Why are the Power 5 conferences watching carefully?  Well, they rule the roost.  If ever there was a time that they might break free of the NCAA and form their own governing body this might be it.  Football is BIG money for the BIG 12, BIG 10, PAC 12, ACC, and SEC.  It supports (with a bit of help from basketball and rarely baseball) all other sports teams, both male and female, that are revenue drains not adds.  Some schools subsidize their academic costs with football generated revenue.  If ever there was a year when revenue is needed, 2020 is it.  If you take the air out of football you’ll take the air out of the entire 2020-21 academic sports calendar year.
  4. So, will college football be played in the fall?  No, yes, and maybe.  “No” is the answer if the enemy spikes in the next four weeks to the point where wisdom and prevailing sentiment dictate otherwise.  “Yes” is the answer as of today for some schools in some states that crave it, depend on it, and have state government support for it.  That’s first and foremost the SEC.  Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana are opening back up for business in an aggressive manner v. many other states.  LSU announced its intention to have classes on campus as early as summer session number 2 in July.  “Maybe” is the answer for many schools as of now as they take a wait and see approach.
  5. What if half suit up and half don’t?  Follow the money.  Teams will reschedule opponents to the level they can to fill the fall calendar, and collect TV money to fill the bank accounts.
  6. Would the SEC go it alone and schedule a full slate of all in conference games?  It’s only a guess, but our answer is yes.  Why?  Aren’t you listening?  Follow the money.  If people are watching the NFL Draft, the MMA, and South Korean baseball (yes they are) in record numbers, can you imagine the ratings for SEC slugfests?  America is craving live sports.
  7. Could the season start late?  Sure.  It will have to if summer workouts and especially fall camps cannot start on time.  The risk of injury due to a lack of conditioning is real.  The fallout would be quite negative.  Sure.  The virus might have a thing or two to say about the date as well.  Sure.  The reconfigured schedule possibility could include fewer, and later in the fall games as an option.
  8. Would colleges field teams to play if they don’t have on-campus classes?  This one seems highly doubtful.  The criticism would be fast, furious, and ongoing.  The academic elite crowd already looks down their nose and around their reading glasses at the double standard of academics and big-time sports.  You can’t decide to virtually teach for social distancing safety and actually have sweat, blood, and tears flying on a field, can you?  The optic would be a difficult one to sell.

Take limited fans in the stands for $150 to win $100.

Take major college football being played for $100 to win $125.

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA, NFL, and Potluck

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

You’ve got to be tired of leftovers.  Have some info and protein rich Ten Piece Nuggets below.  They’re randomly served.  Get all of your food groups in early.  Variety is good for you.

  1. The NFL is down to 12 teams while the NCAA is down to two.  Let the playoffs begin for the NCAA this coming weekend, while the NCAA’s playoff will crown a champion on January 13. There are still some good bowl games to be played (Alabama v. Michigan, Baylor v. Georgia, Wisconsin v. Oregon), but the last of one of all in NOLA is the biggest.  LSU was installed as a 3 point overnight favorite over Clemson but by dawn that rose to 5.5 on Sunday.
  2.  Did you listen to Dabo Swinney after his team’s thrilling comeback over THE?  His shtick is already tired and we get to hear from him for two more weeks.  “We’ll need to win 30 in a row to be champion.”  Hmm.  Is last year’s record relevant this year?  If so, yes you will need to win 30 in a row since 29 are done.  ” They’re ranked 1st and we’re only ranked 3rd.”  So?  “Nobody in the media believes in us.”  Clemson was never ranked lower than fourth all year long.  Lastly, why is Swinney pronounced sween nee?  William Christopher “Dabo” Swinney’s Clemson Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 games v. the SEC.  If he wants “r-e-s-p-e-c-t” he’ll need to make it 11-1 according to him.  Poor Dabo.
  3. Today is Black Monday in the NFL.  It’s the day players clean out their lockers till fall and fired head coaches clean out their offices permanently.  Jay Gruden lasted only 6 games in Washington while Ron Rivera (more on him later) got booted a month ago in Carolina.  Freddie Kitchens is out as of this AM in Cleveland.  Doug Marrone is as good as gone in Jacksonville.  They’ll be others.
  4. Is Jason Garrett out in Dallas?  Jerry Jones was quiet after yesterday’s final regular season game when asked.  Jerry Jones is never quiet.  Garrett owns an 85-67 record in 10 seasons in Dallas. He took the Cowboys to the playoffs three times, each ending in the divisional round.  Garrett’s contract wasn’t renewed last off season.  It expires on 1/14/2020.  He’ll be gone before that.  Sometimes it’s just time.
  5. Let the Urban Meyer and Lincoln Riley rumors fly.  Urban has never coached a single down in the NFL.  Ask Nick Saban if the transition from the NCAA always works out.  Riley looks the part.  He’s young and offensive minded.  The NFL is a copycat league.  Sean McVay paved the way for Kliff Kingsbury.   Is Riley next?  If he is, he needs to hire a DC and stay the hell away from the D.  His Oklahoma teams stop nobody and the Big 12 isn’t very good.  They have been worked over in their CFP playoff appearances.  LSU had 49 in the first half and throttled way down to a 63 point total Saturday afternoon.  Riley said afterwards, “they went on a little bit of a run.”  Little bit?
  6. Did you want a weird and mostly worthless trivial stat this AM?  We thought so.  Alvin Kamara has caught exactly 81 passes in the regular season each season in his first three years in the NFL.  It’s a ton for a RB especially when Michael Thomas is playing WR on the same team.
  7.  What’s wrong with New England?  Yesterday they tripped all over themselves losing as a 16 point favorite at home to Miami.  It cost them a first week bye  They’ll need to dispatch of the Tennessee Titans this weekend then hit the road twice to get to the big show.  NE, under Belichick, has never advanced to the Super Bowl from lower than the #2 seed.  He had timeouts and time when they forced a Miami punt with 1:45 left in the second quarter.  He let the clock run down on the punt, then had Tom Brady hand the ball off twice to go into the locker room tied at 10.  Hmm.  Brady was seen on the sidelines working to loosen his right arm all afternoon.  Hmm.  It’s going to be very hard for them to derail the team that has “it” this year-the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens will spend the week getting healthy while NE clashes with the Titans.
  8.  Ron Rivera will very likely be introduced as the next Washington Redskins head coach today or tomorrow.  Be careful what you wish for.  That organization has been a mess for two decades and running.  They over pay for free agents, miss on draft picks, and cannot evaluate QB talent.  Bruce Allen is out as president there as well.  The one constant in the last twenty years there?  The owner.  Daniel Snyder makes Jerry Jones look like a smart owner.
  9.  Two live wild cards are Minnesota and Seattle.  Minnesota travels to N.O.  Seattle goes across the country to face Philly.  Two teams getting no respect are Green Bay and Kansas City.  Both are two seeds, both get the week off, and both are very tough outs at home.
  10.  This BBR staff writer goes to a movie in a theater about as often as the Cleveland Browns go to the playoffs.  However, we took in Richard Jewell yesterday.  It’s good work done by Clint Eastwood.  If Abby were a movie critic she would give it four bones out of five.  Quick question, Jewell was accused of the 1996 pipe bombing in Centennial Olympic Park during the Olympics held in Atlanta, but was he ever arrested?  Convicted?  Who did place the backpack filled with three bombs? The FBI stunk this one up almost as bad as they behaved in the “Russia collusion” investigation.  Go see it.    A bag of popcorn is seven dollars these days.  Who knew?  Sneak some nuggets in instead.

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part two we selected Florida St. from the ACC and in part three we selected Texas from The BIG 12.  As an intro as to why we wrote the following on each. Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.  

That trend stretches to three straight teams as we head south.  This series’ timeliness also went south as impeachments and other Washington nonsense continued to get in the way. To the SEC we go.

Most Disappointing

When Texas A&M invested a fully guaranteed $75 million for the services of head coach Jimbo Fisher starting in 2018, did they think that they would finish 7-5 this year?  Likely not.  Did they think that they would only win games that they were favored in and lose all others?  Likely not.  Did they hope for the “quarterback whisperer” Jimbo to sprinkle magic dust on second year starter Kellon Mond?  Likely so.  They beat  SEC West foes Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi St. by 4,7, and 19 points respectively.  Their favorite cheer is WHOOOOP!   Those wins are WHOOOP tee doo.

Sure their schedule was brutal.  Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Clemson, and Alabama is a tough go.  But, in the SEC, except for the non conference Clemson game, that’s as common as fried chicken and bourbon on a fall Saturday.  A brutal schedule means that you aren’t as good as a lot of teams.  And, the Aggies proved that in 2019 despite an improving D.

The Texas A&M Aggies were the most disappointing team in the SEC.

Also Considered

BBR considered South Carolina and Mississippi St. but disappointment after a season is relative to realistic expectations going into it.  SC had a great road upset over Georgia in a game of defense, but lost five of their last six thereafter including a loss to Appalachian St.  Cross state rival Clemson is miles away and ahead of the SC program and hammered them 38-3 to close out a 4-8 campaign.

Mississippi St. lost three starters from their 2018 squad that were drafted in the top 27 picks of round one.  It’s hard to recruit to Starkville on a consistent basis and it’s nearly impossible to replace that type of talent.  The Bulldogs are bowl bound at 6-6, but their over/under win total in Vegas was 8-4.  That’s a two game disappointment.  Joe Moorhead replaced Dan Mullen.  At Mississippi St. that’s not an enviable position.

Putting the Eye Test to the Test.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

LSU. Ohio State.  Clemson.  Oklahoma.

Did the College Football Playoff Committee get it right?  The consensus by far is that the 13 member panel did.  More often than not, they do.

More often than not, the top four teams separate themselves once the regular season and the conference championships are played.  It seems so this year as well.

So, this year the committee chose the obvious because the obvious presented itself given the outcomes on the field of play.  But, in the weeks leading up to, and the one before the final weekend, the committee seeded the top 15 teams based on results, their own eye test, injuries, and an assumption here or there.

Would an old school BCS computer model have done the same?  Would Vegas choose the same?  We don’t know, but we wonder if both would have had nos. 4 through, say 12 ranked differently.

Two weeks ago THE was the “more complete team.”  Two weeks later “LSU has been playing better and getting healthier on D,” committee leader Rob Mullen said.  Seems like an eye test to us.

We wonder how Utah entered this weekend ranked #5 without a win over a single ranked team and one loss.  Baylor was in the same boat and ranked below them.  The difference?  Baylor lead Oklahoma 28-3 a month ago before surrendering 34-31.  Utah lost to USC 30-27.  USC was unranked.  Oklahoma is in the final four.  Eye test anyone?  Oregon’s win showed us that Utah was no where near the top 5.  If Baylor beat Oklahoma and Utah won would Baylor have jumped Utah?  If Oklahoma beat Baylor and Utah beat Oregon would Oklahoma have jumped Utah? Maybe.  Oregon finished ahead of Baylor, so we doubt the Bears would have.

We wonder how a three loss Wisconsin team (losers to Illinois and THE in the regular season, and THE in the conf championship) was and is ranked 8th while several two loss teams, most notably Alabama (ranked 13th after falling one spot without playing last weekend) are ranked well below.  Alabama lost by five to LSU and three on a boinked off of the upright field goal to Auburn.  Ah, the committee all but said “the loss of the QB (Tua T) hurt Bama a bit.”  Bama scored 41 v #1 LSU and 45 v #12 Auburn.  The O wasn’t Bama’s problem before nor after the injury.  The D was.  Eye test anyone?

We could go on, and on.  But the point is, why do we have humans deciding this?  Haven’t advanced metrics, models, AI, and computers passed up the human eye in determining who is who?  The BCS computer model was devised to do just that.  But humans decided that the computer model didn’t pass their eye test.  The very thing that model was designed to do- take away the eye test, got taken away by the eye test.

If you support a chip in the nose of the football to determine down and distance and fumble or not, why not a tech help for the committee?  If you yell at the screen watching umps miss balls for strikes and strikes for balls v. the superimposed zone on the screen why not a tech help to the committee?  We could go on and on.

The committee got the final four right because the teams separated perfectly on the final weekend.  If it came down differently and went to an eye test, would the outcome have been different?  And, would it have been correct?

Vegas would favor several lower ranked teams in the final 15, and in some cases by double digits, over several higher ranked teams.  The NFL would take Alabama’s starting 22 over any other roster in the NCAA, yet the committee sees them as the 13th best.

For now everyone is happy, except fans of THE.  Their eye test sees scarlet and gray as a clear no. 1 over purple and the yellow that LSU calls gold.

And, that makes the point.  The computer doesn’t see color.

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week 15

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

And here come the NCAA Conference Championship games.  Whew.  That was quick.  Anyone having withdrawals before it’s even over?

After a week in NOLA Abby is having a few withdrawals of her own of a different kind.  But, the elixir proved to be mixed just like a fine hand crafted cocktail. It got the job done.

Her back to back weeks of picks from the road make you want one more round in the worst way.  Week 13’s won/loss record was 5-1, while week 14 was 4-1.  That brings her season long record to a fine 39-34. Woof. The way more important bones wagered took home ten of eleven then seven of eight.  Therefore, Abby has taken 78 of them from Vegas while only paying 55.  That is a degenerate gambler good win percentage of 58.6%  Woof!  Woof!  Meanwhile the hunch bet split the last two weeks and stands on all four legs at 10-5.  Woof!  Woof!  Woof!

Enough with the barking already.  It’s time to earn some more pats on the head.

Oregon + 7 v Utah –  The Utes are the best team no one has seen this year.  Oregon is the first ranked team, when the game is played, the Utes will play this year.  Utes win, Ducks cover.  One bone.

Baylor v Oklahoma -9 – The Bears are the second best team no one has seen play this year.  They led Oklahoma by 25 at one point in their first meeting.  Not this time. The Sooners make a statement by hanging half a hundo on Baylor to give the Playoff Committee something to think about.  Two Bones.

UAB +7 1/2 v FAU – Is Lane Kiffin’s honeymoon in south Florida over?  Rumors swirl about new girlfriends (head coaching jobs at Arkansas) every year about this time.  UAB dances with the one they brought and wins straight up.  One bone.

Georgia v LSU over 54 1/2 – Most of the talk pregame is about how good Georgia’s D is.  The rest of the talk is about how Georgia is either hurt or suspended at the skill positions.  It’s a zig when others zag.  Expect Georgia to put up 20 plus and LSU to put up 30 plus, just enough to cover on a fast track in the Mercedes Benz Georgia Dome.  Two bones.

Cincinnati v Memphis under 57 1/2 –  These two met last week and scored 58 total points.  Meeting in back to back weeks we like the under as Abby assumes (you know what happens when you assume?) the two D’s will learn from the film more than the two O’s will change what they do.  One bone.

We make no hunch bet this week.  But we do have a hunch.  On a hunch expect Oklahoma (if Georgia loses) to jump Utah and gain the #4 seed.

Woof, again!

P.S.  Abby howls at the moon in amazement at how the playoff committee ranks Alabama as low as they do.

 

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Three

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part two we selected Florida St. from the ACC.  As an intro as to why we wrote the following. Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.

We sense a pattern.  Today we examine the BIG 12.

 

BIG 12

Most Disappointing

Much like Willie Taggert at Florida St., year two for Tom Herman and company at the University of Texas was a disappointment.  Though, year two at Texas wasn’t a disaster like it was in Seminole country.  But, shouldn’t the flagship school in the third largest state in the union be better, even much better?  Texas finished 7-5 overall.  Their 5-4 in conference record was equal to three other schools and “good enough” to tie for third best in the BIG 12.  Who had the same in conference record?  Oklahoma St., Kansas St., and Iowa St. did.  See what we mean?  “Good enough” isn’t good enough.

The standard for years in the ACC has been Clemson.  Florida St. aspires to get back to that.  The standard for many, many years in the Big 12 has been Oklahoma.  It should be Texas and Oklahoma, but it isn’t.  Aspirational means you aren’t there.

But shouldn’t it take more than a couple of years to turn around a Texas program that suffered from past years of poor recruiting and poor coaching/management?  Ask Baylor.  In the same conference, with much the same schedule, Baylor went from 1-11 to 11-1 in those same two years.  Oh, and Baylor popped Texas 24-10 along the way in doing so.

Tom Herman was a (or the) hot name in coaching two years ago as he used LSU to get more money out of UT.  Now he needs to earn it.  Texas beat no one on their schedule this year that Vegas viewed as the favorite in the game.  All of this occurred after a ten win season in 2018 and with a returning, accomplished QB. That’s underachieving.  That’s disappointing.

Herman just fired his OC and DC.  Wasn’t Herman the offensive guru at THE OSU and Houston?  If so, what happened at UT?  If not, did he make a hiring mistake or three along the way?  It says here that he only has 12 more regular season games to figure that out.  There’s another team in Texas that UT doesn’t like getting more pub than them.  It’s Texas A&M.  They have a year two coach in Jimbo Fisher.  If ole Jimbo outshines Tom Herman in year three, Texas will headbutt Herman much like Herman did a helmeted player in game 12 last week.

The University of Texas is the runaway winner as the most disappointing team in the BIG 12.

Also Considered

TCU went 3-6 in conference and 5-7 overall this year.  Gary Patterson is 118-65 overall in 18 seasons leading the Horned Frogs.

TCU needed to replace a some talent from 2018 (particularly on D), some of which now plays on Sunday.  They also needed a new QB.  But a program run for 18 years by the same leader clearly needs to plan against and prepare for just that.

TCU’s bar is lower than Texas’ bar.  However,  Patterson himself has raised it.  Gary Patterson is 118-65 overall in 18 seasons leading the Horned Frogs.  In 2017, TCU and Coach Patterson reached their tenth 11-win season since Patterson began coaching for the program. That is the fourth most 11 win seasons since 2001 in all of college football.

In 2018 the program finished 7-6.  Therefore, the 5-7 campaign this year is underwhelming, and now qualifies as a three year slide.