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Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 13

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

NCAA football, we hardly knew you.  Time flys.

This Saturday wraps up another college football regular season.  Abby might weigh in on a bowl or playoff game or two, but she makes her money in the regular season.

A breakeven week last week (one more won than lost, but Vegas collected the juice) puts her season longs at 47 wins and 34 losses and 67 bones won with 48 bones lost.  The hunch took its 3rd punch (Michigan St scored a whopping 7 so the total of 63 was under by 5) and stands at 8-3.

It’s always better to be a wary bettor during rivalry week.  The pickings look slim.

  1. Iowa at Nebraska + 1 1/2 — Frost’s team hasn’t quit.  They counterpunched Wisconsin to the wire last week.  This week they win at the wire.  Two bones.
  2. Cincinnati at East Carolina +14 1/2 —  Cincy and head coach Luke Fickell control their own playoff entry destiny. Can E Carolina ruin that?  No, but they can cover two touchdowns at home.  One bone.
  3. Kentucky at Louisville -3 — Like Nebraska, Louisville has played a handful of tough opponents close.  Saturday they get it done against a solid bunch of Wildcats.  One bone.
  4. Wisconsin at Minnesota +7 1/2 —  A straight-up win by the Golden Gophers would not shock Abby.  Wisconsin usually has a late-season “huh?” game.  If Whisky goes flat out for 60, this bet won’t hold up.  One bone.
  5. Oklahoma at Oklahoma St – 4 1/2  — Okie St has beaten their last five opponents by a 165-44 combined total and is peaking late.  Oklahoma has sputtered of late.  Vegas is begging John Q. Public to take Oklahoma.  Abby will take the zig on the zag.  One bone.

Vegas is fading Lincoln Riley as the next LSU coach.  He’s now +1000 in Vegas.  On a hunch, Abby will take Lincoln Riley announced Sunday as the next LSU head coach.    One bone to win ten bones.

Six bones, five home teams, three dogs, two chalks, and one longshot Lincoln.

Woof!

 

Editor’s note:  BBR is taking a four-day holiday starting roughly right now.

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 12

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s that time of the year.  Some great NCAA head coaching opportunities have opened making the coaching carousel go around faster and faster.

Website prognostication opportunities are much the same.  If you’re the top dog, you get paid the top dollar.

Accordingly, Abby released the following statement.

“Woof.  Woof.  It’s been a good year.  There is much work to do in the final two regular-season weeks as well as conference championships, bowls, and playoffs.  My focus is solely on the bones at hand.  BBR is not my doghouse, it’s my dog home.  We have games to analyze and pick.  I’m very happy here at BBR and intend on being here for a long time.  Thank you.  Bow wow!!”

Another winning week last week puts her squarely on top of the dogpile.  The won/loss is 42-30, and the bones are 61-42.  The hunch bombed, but the record is salty at 8-2.

  1.  Memphis at Houston -8 —  Houston is hammering the competition after a slower than expected start.  Memphis will keep it interesting for three quarters.  Lookout Cincy in the American Athletic Conference Championship game in two weeks.  One bone.
  2.  Florida -9 at Missouri —  The sky is falling.  Throw Mullen out like the bum that he is.  This looks like a good zig on a zag.  Two bones.
  3.  Texas +3 at West Virginia — The sky is falling part 2.  Throw Sarkesian out like the bum that he is.  This looks like a good zig on a zag part 2.  Two bones.
  4.  ULL +4 1/2 at Liberty —  Abby likes the Cajuns straight up but will take the points.  Will Billy Napier move 50 miles east soon?  One bone.
  5.  Nebraska + 9 1/2 at Wisconsin  — Whisky has been rolling for seven weeks after a slow start.    They are double tough at Camp Randall.  The under looks tempting as well.  Whisky wins, but it’s only by a shot glass or two.  Two bones.
  6.  UCLA -3 at USC —  UCLA has covered in four road games.  USC has not but in one home game.  The best team and the one that has anything to play for is the Bruins.  One bone.
  7. UAB +5 at UTSA — Name the only three undefeated teams left in college football.  Georgia, Cincinnatti, and UTSA.  Fear the Roadrunners.  It’s been a great run.  But.  One bone.
  8. Wyoming at Utah St – 5 1/2 —  Utah St has the Mountain West Championship Game in its sights.  Two speed bumps remain.  Wyoming is one of them.  One bone.
  9.  Baylor at Kansas St. -1 —  Wildcats are playing well.  Baylor is playing very well.  Are the Bears a bit hungover from the big win over Oklahoma?  It’s a classic letdown spot.  Abby points out that K St hasn’t beaten a ranked team all year.  Till now.  One bone.

In Columbus, THE Ohio St hosts Michigan St.  The total is 68 points.  That sounds very high.  Vegas is telling us something.  The hunch bet tries to bounce back and will take the over.

Six road teams, five chalks, four road dogs.

Woof!

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

For the third time in ten weeks Abby had to pay the man.  When you lose 6 bones ($66) and win 4 ($40) you slowly run out of money unless you are the US government.

Luckily for Abby the year-to-date totals still look good, so she doesn’t need a paw out (aka handout).   Ten weeks deep her won-loss record is 37-27, the bones won are 55 v 38 surrendered.

We must give a special shoutout on her hunch bet.  She took  Army v Air Force under the thirty-seven points total.  The game went to overtime and the under still won the day.  The hunch stands tall like the soldiers that competed at 8-1 for the season.

  1. West Virginia at Kansas St -6 –K St at home is a significantly better team than on the road.  WV on the road is a significantly worse team than at home.  One bone.
  2.  Michigan at Penn St under 49 — This feels like a game that a late field goal wins it somewhere in the 20-17 range.  Woody Hayes didn’t like either of these teams but would like the three yards and a pile of dirt scrum.  One bone.
  3.  Notre Dame -5 1/2 at Virginia —  ND has had some closes finishes.  This one covers late, however.  Two bones.
  4. Oklahoma at Baylor under 62 — Abby’ll bite. This one almost seems too good.   Aranda will have them ready to defend the Okla O.   One bone.
  5.  NC State at Wake Forest -1 — Will Wake be hungover from the sting of the Tarheel come from behind victory? Maybe for a series or two.  That O can go.  One bone.
  6. Stanford + 12 at Oregon St —  Abby’ll bite again.  This line seems so out of whack that normally she would take the zig.  But 12 points and the Cardinal seems too juicy.  One bone.
  7. Mississippi St at Auburn -5 — Auburn went to College Station and got stuffed.  We smell an angry rebound and a close cover.  One bone.
  8. Texas A&M -2 at Ole Miss — A road favorite after a big home win in the SEC is dangerous.  A&M is a better team in the trenches than Ole Miss and the Black Bears (formerly Rebels) are banged up.  Two bones.

Arkansas travels to Death Valley to face LSU.  We’re sending one of our staff members to cover the game.  LSU is going to play two QB’s.  Arkansas likes to run the ball.  The total at 59 looks way too high.  The under seems like a sure bet.  Abby will take the over on another crazy hunch.

Woof!

Abby Picks, Year 4 Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Skunked!  Well not totally, but Abby’s picks stunk at a minimum last week.

The only thing you can do when a dog gets skunked is to wash her down with some tomato juice and hope that it doesn’t happen again.

Luckily she has a lot of padding on her paws to cushion the 2-6 performance last week.  Overall she’s 24-18 in the won/loss column, 37-26 in bones, and the hunch bet won to bring that year long to a solid 6-1.

Moving along.

  1. Memphis -2 at UCF — In a Friday night coin flip game take the better team on the road and hope they can win at the very end of what will be a back and forth game.  One bone.
  2. Texas St at Georgia St -10 1/2 and Colorado at California – 8 — Two lines caught Abby’s eyes this week that looked like weird outliers v the teams’ performance to date.  Georgia St and California have no business being big favorites in these games.  So, Abby says take them in a parlay.  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Oregon +1 at UCLA — Abby’s going with the better team on the road again in another coin flip game.  Cristobal is an under-the-radar, underrated coach.  One bone.
  4. Mississippi St at Vanderbilt +21 —  Vandy is not good and that’s being polite.  If Miss St loses this game Mike Leach will be called not good and that’s being polite.  He won’t, but the Bulldogs won’t cover either.  One bone.
  5. LSU ML at Ole Miss —  Who knows if LSU will play for themselves or come out dead flat with the Coach O news this week?  Abby doesn’t love LSU to win but loves the value in the bet.  One bone to win three bones.
  6. USC at Notre Dame -6 1/2 — For the third time the bet is the better team but this time ND is the home team.  Expect it close for three quarters then the Irish pour it on.  One bone.

Six bones to win ten, four chalks, three dogs, and one big can of tomato juice.

Woof!

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you’ve never been to the Flora-Bama bar, you should put it on your bucket list.  No really.  Bama has the best team football team in the world and 1/2 of the best bar in the world as well.  It sits 1/2 in Florida and 1/2 in Bama, right on the state line, fifty yards from the Gulf of Mexico.

  1. Do you think that Nick Saban coach of the best football team in the world stewed for the last 12 months that his former OC, and chief needler,  Lane Kiffen put 617 yards of offense on Saban’s pride and joy defense last year?  Saban gets mad and gets even.
  2. Speaking of defense, Georgia hasn’t allowed a single point in its last eight quarters of SEC play, pitching two shutouts in a row over hapless Vanderbilt and upstart Arkansas.  Four Georgia running backs rushed for 87, 68, 57, and 48 yards.  Deep bench.  Oh, and the O scored 99 points total in those same two games.
  3. Should we pronounce the winner of the SEC Championship game the national champ?  Probably.  Raise your hand if you don’t think the game will pit Bama versus Georgia? Saban’s win makes him 23 and 0 against his former assistant coaches.  Could Kirby Smart outsmart Saban in December to make it 23-1?  Are we getting ahead of ourselves?   Saban would say yes.  We’d say no.
  4.  But, the BIG 10 asks, “what about us?”  Iowa owned Maryland(51-14) on Friday and Penn St owned Indiana(24-0) on Saturday to check in at numbers 3 and 4 respectively in the AP top 25.  They’ll meet Saturday on the field near the cornfields in Iowa City.
  5.  That matchup will feature two top 5 BIG 10 teams for the first time since 1997 that one of them isn’t named THE Ohio St University.  Both Iowa and Penn State have beaten two ranked opponents already.  So this game is going to have a significant impact one way or another as one of them makes it three.
  6.  But, the Cincinnati Bearcats ask, “what about us?”  Cincy checks in proudly at #6 after going into South Bend and bouncing the Irish 24-13.  Cincinnati’s defense isn’t Georgia ferocious, but it’s mighty strong.  The Bearcats showed against ND they can perform on big stages. They have only one marginally ranked (24 SMU) left on their schedule.  Is that good or bad for them?  It depends on how the others ahead and slightly behind them play out.
  7.  And, 5-0 Oklahoma wants to make their way into the big boy talk.  At seven they’ll get a chance to pad their resume, as the winners of 13 straight are headed to Dallas to face # 21 Texas in the Red River Shootout next Saturday.
  8. Who is still undefeated besides all of the above-mentioned?  If you guessed Michigan, Michigan St., Coastal Carolina, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Oklahoma St., SMU, and San Diego St. you’re watching way too much football on Saturdays.
  9. That thud you heard late Saturday night was previously undefeated and now # 8 Oregon laying a big duck egg v Stanford. Arizona St is the only other PAC12 ranked team.  Oregon’s body of work includes a fine win at THE, so they’ll stay in the conversation for now.  But the PAC 12 playoff conversation is hanging on by a thread until something or things really shake up the standings.
  10. Although it could have been a reverberation from College Station where preseason #7 Texas A&M dropped out of the top 25 with a certified stinker of a loss to Mississippi St after losing to Arkansas the week before.  Jimbo’s contract was extended and guaranteed before the season started. The extension will increase his salary to $9 million on Jan. 1 and $9.15 million on Jan. 1, 2023.  After that, his salary will increase by $100,000 each year through 2031.  That’s good work if you can get it.  A&M has opened as an 18 point dog to Bama this week.
  11. (Lagniappe) Iowa is favored by 3 over Penn St., as is Michigan at Nebraska, as is Oklahoma v Texas in The Red River Shootout that you can’t call The Red River Shootout anymore.

Out.

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 4

Posted on by thependulumswings staff
  1. Faithful reader number one, after reviewing Abby’s picks last Saturday night, suggested that Abby take a bow.  Bow? Wow!  Faithful reader number two suggested that a steak was in order over the normal chow.  Wow.

As Judge Smails famously told his grandson, Spaulding in Caddyshack, “you’ll get nothing and like it.” Three weeks does not make a season.  But it is a good start.  With ten wins and six losses, sixteen bones won v six lost, and the hunch bet advancing to 3-0, it’s time for week four.

  1.  Wisconsin -6 v Notre Dame —  Soldier Field is the awesome setting for this early fall midwest scrum.  Abby is so mystified by this line that she’s going 100% against her thought.  That thought is that the wrong team is favored.  One bone.
  2.  Miami OH at Army -7 —  Can the Army make it four in a row versus the spread?  They’ll give it a go.  One bone.
  3.  Florida International at Central Michigan -11 — Cent Mich ran into an angry LSU team last week.  Two weeks ago they nearly beat Missouri.  Abby expects a rebound. Two bones.
  4.  Texas Tech at Texas -8 — The much-maligned Longhorns begin what might be their final stroll through the BIG 12.  They might start slow, but talent will take over in the second half.  Two bones.
  5.  Nebraska at Michigan St. -5 — Michigan St. might well be the best team in Michigan.  Is this the year they bust through and be the best team in the BIG 10 East?  Doubtful, but if they want to they need to take care of an average foe in the Cornhuskers first.  One bone.

Five home chalks get picked by a dog that likes underdogs!

Texas A&M might have their hands full in Arlington this weekend v a surging Arkansas program.  This is strength v strength.  The Ark O line v the A&M D line.  Abby, on a hunch, likes under 47.

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 12

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last week Abby won just a (kibbles and) bit more than she lost. Any week that’s a plus week versus Vegas is, well, a plus week versus Vegas.

For the season wins number 29, losses 30, and ties one.  Bones won number 45, while those given back are 38.  The hunch bet finally climbed out of a season-long backyard dug hole and stands at 4 up and 4 down.

Isn’t it so cancel culture 2020 that false positives, positives, and contact tracing are canceling plenty of games as well?  Jim Harbaugh is happy about that this week.  He would have been worked over by THE lickety-split.

Next week, Abby’s going to kick in a few NFL games for good measure as well as the NCAA games will be few and far between.   Now, to the picks.

  1. Arizona St. at Arizona -11 and 1/2 – Kevin Sumlin will saddle up and ride out of Tuscon right after this one with all of his money in bags.  The sheriff (AD) will see to it.  He’s done zero there and made a cool 9 million.  But, we think they can keep it close enough in a loss to the Sun Devils.  Home dog number one of the week.  It’s Abby’s Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Coastal Carolina at Troy + 13 and 1/2 – This is a classic letdown spot for the most upstart team in 2020.  Troy usually plays well at home.  Home dog number two of the week.  Two bones.
  3. Stanford at Oregon St +3 – Stanford has been dreadful against the spread this year.  Oregon St has been feisty this year.  It feels like they are playing with purpose each week.  Home dog number three on the week.  Two bones.
  4. Houston ML at Memphis – The Cougars have hammered bad teams and been hammered by good ones.  Memphis falls somewhere in between.  For the value of a 2 to 1 money line bet on a five-point underdog, Abby likes the spot enough.  One bone to win two bones.
  5. LSU at Florida under 68 and 1/2 – The lost season continues for LSU.  Another week and another starter opts out.  Florida has an offense that lights up scoreboards.  These two programs don’t like each other and Florida will want some revenge from LSU’s big win last year.  LSU won’t score 24.  And Florida won’t score 44.  Two bones.

The last time Army hosted the Navy at West Point was during WWII.  On a hunch, we think that they won’t be good hosts.  As Lee Corso says weekly (even when the two teams aren’t playing)  Go Army, Beat Navy!  Take Army -7.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As the season coughs it’s way to the last few weeks, Abby’s picks have been a bit under the weather.  A nice parlay landed and dulled the pain of some close (but they all count) losses.  Note to doggie- Notre Dame is legit and Texas is dog $%!#.

For the season the W/L total dipped below .500 for the first time at 26-28-1.  The bones are still cashing though at a respectable 45-38.  You can take bones to the bank or bury them in the backyard.  The hunch bet which picked opposite all of the above was a hedge bet winner and stands at 3-4.

The picks below will start a gambling December to remember.

  1. ULL +3 at Appalacian St. –  Rumors swirl that Coach Billy Napier will be headed to (pick one) Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, or another step up of his choosing in 2021.  But, for now, he keeps his Cajuns ragin.  It’s a Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Vanderbilt at Georgia over 54 – Last week the Commodores had a mason for a coach, a female for a kicker, and an offensive offense.  The kicker barely kicked and the coach was kicked out of the door.  The offense still stinks.  The ship is sinking.  Anchor down.  Dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats but loves UGA.  Two bones.
  3. Nebraska +3 at Purdue – Nebraska has one win this year.  It came versus a winless Penn St. Tomorrow they’ll have two for no good reason at all.  One bone.
  4. Florida at Tennessee + 17 and over 63 –  The double-digit dog in this series almost always covers.  It’s at Tennessee.  Florida is due for a 40 plus point game.  Tenn needs to score 27 and the parlay cashes.   One bone to win three bones.
  5. Indiana at Wisconsin -14 – The Badgers crashed into the wall on the third turn of the season.  They annually do so.  Abby predicts a focused effort against a good Indiana team.  This line seems quite high.  Therefore, we see a zig on a zag cover. Two bones.
  6. Texas A&M at Auburn + 6 and 1/2 – The Aggie cry for inclusion (a popular word these days) in the playoffs was dented by a bland performance last week.  This week the conversation ends.  Abby sees a straight-up win for Auburn as a real possibility.  One bone.

The hunch bet has a chance to get its year-long record to .500 this week.  Texas (-7) has no business being a seven-point pick over Kansas St much less almost anybody, do they?  Remember the note to doggie above?  Abby says Hook Em anyway.

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Three, Week Three

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We’ll be brief this AM.  We’re lucky Abby studied the board early this week as she has a bad cough and a runny snoot.  Hopefully her improvement this AM means we can avoid waiting in the dreaded car line for the dreaded swab up the nose halfway to Omaha.

Meanwhile, she’s off to a good start in dreaded 2020.  Through two weeks she’s 6-4-1 picking games against the spread while winning nine bones waged and losing only six.  She had a hunch that The Donald would win, win, win v the dreaded one as well.  So the Hunch Bet evens at 1-1.

Texas Tech +13 at Iowa St. – Iowa St lost to ULL three weeks ago.  Last week the Cyclones beat Oklahoma.  Today a hurricane is going to beat up ULL’s campus.  It’s 2020.  Abby says Iowa St wins but doesn’t cover.   One bone.

Florida at Texas A&M + 6 1/2 –  This line makes little sense to Abby.  Florida looks great out of the gate.  Meanwhile, A&M struggled v. Vandy in their opener and got their annual beatdown from Bama last week.  She’s going to zig when others zag.  Abby smells a Vegas zig when others zag.  One bone.

Oklahoma -2 v Texas-  Two of the most disappointing teams early square off in the Red River Shootout.   Could Oklahoma possibly lose three in a row with the next great NFL coach roaming the sidelines we ask in jest?  Sure.  But, on the other sidelines roams the greatest college coach hired three years ago we say in jest.  Hmm.  Neither team plays defense.  Okla gets one more stop than Texas.  Three bones.

Alabama at Mississippi + 24–  Nick Saban has never lost to a former pupil turned head coach.  It won’t happen this week either.  And it won’t be close.  But it will be close enough for Kiffin’s crew to cover.  One bone.

Miami at Clemson -14 –  This is the year.  Miami is the real deal this time.  We’ve heard this before.  D’Eriq King is the real deal.  We’ve heard this before. So is Clemson.  One bone.

To escape the perils of Hurricane Delta LSU moved its game to Missouri. The line went from -21 to minus 14.  But, the line that stayed close to the same is the o/u of 55.  Abby loves her some under.  On a hunch take under 55.

Woof!

 

The Glass of Water is Half Full

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to look past Minneapolis this morning.  A terrible act of violence is being compounded by multiple bad decisions by city, state, and federal officials.  But, we will look past it.

The glass of water is half full this AM.  Believe it.  The nation had an outdoor party last weekend and a short work week as well.  It’s time to build on that.

Let’s talk about football.

Many plans have been put in place by both the NCAA and the NFL.  For now, with many fingers crossed, it seems like both will start on time and play before live audiences.

Given where we were a few weeks back, we’d be happy if the stadiums could only be, like the glass of water, half full.

For the Jacksonville Jaguars that would be business as usual.  Don’t laugh Rams fans. You’ve been practicing social distancing ever since your team decided to move back a few seasons ago.  The Chargers stadium has been full (all of 30k capacity) but it’s been with opposing fans. Shame, shame.

That aside, plenty of fun is straight ahead we hope.  We hope.

Can Joe Burrow be a savior in Cincy?  How cool will the stadium nearly on the Vegas strip be?  Tom Brady is the QB in Tampa!  What does NE look like without Tom?  Can KC repeat?  How bout dem Cowboys?  Phillip Rivers leads Indy in a wide open division.

Were the LSU Tigers a one-hit-wonder, or is Coach O building the program to another level?  Who will emerge this year from the pack to surprise?  Florida anyone?  Alabama sat home when the playoffs began.  Nick’s probably pretty mad about that.  THE Ohio St. is recruiting so well you’d almost think they were paying their players.  Does Texas get on the national stage?  Oregon is coming.  USC wants to make some noise too.  Is it still Clemson and their sons in the ACC?  Will Oklahoma actually field a defense?  Is Mississippi big enough for two egos named Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin?

We could go on.  And on.  Instead, we’ll pat ourselves on the back for our season win total winners in the NFL in San Fran(over) and Oakland (over) as well as a winning season in bones wagered, hunch bets, and wins for ABBY in the NCAA Friday column.

Soon enough it will all be here.  It’s under 90 days and counting right now.

We’re going to have a weekly bet column from here till the week one kickoff.  It’ll cover a wide range of propositions, teams, divisions, and cover both college and pro.

If you have a thought to share along the way, or a suggestion for a prop bet, drop us a comment or three.

Otherwise, fire up the smoker.