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2020 NCAA Football. Kickoff or Punt?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Although it’s never really the offseason anymore, the NCAA football programs usually enter the offseason filled with questions that need answers.  This offseason was no different on the questions part.

Schools are out for summer and plenty of the questions remain.  A few that were answered are subject to change.  That is life in 2020 as the biggest questions still loom and the answers remain unknown.

Will colleges play football in the fall?  Will the NCAA allow it?  Will the virus allow it?

We offer eight questions below and offer more than eight answers.  It’s always good to hedge your football bets.

  1.  Will the NCAA dictate if and when the schools, teams, and conferences can kickoff.  No.  They’ll give generalized recommendations, but NCAA President Mark Emmert already stated that there will be no uniform start date this fall suggested by the for now governing body.
  2. Why did he say that?  He said that because he is smart enough to know that there isn’t one answer across hundreds of schools and fifty states.  He is also smart enough to know that the Power 5 conferences are watching carefully.
  3. Why are the Power 5 conferences watching carefully?  Well, they rule the roost.  If ever there was a time that they might break free of the NCAA and form their own governing body this might be it.  Football is BIG money for the BIG 12, BIG 10, PAC 12, ACC, and SEC.  It supports (with a bit of help from basketball and rarely baseball) all other sports teams, both male and female, that are revenue drains not adds.  Some schools subsidize their academic costs with football generated revenue.  If ever there was a year when revenue is needed, 2020 is it.  If you take the air out of football you’ll take the air out of the entire 2020-21 academic sports calendar year.
  4. So, will college football be played in the fall?  No, yes, and maybe.  “No” is the answer if the enemy spikes in the next four weeks to the point where wisdom and prevailing sentiment dictate otherwise.  “Yes” is the answer as of today for some schools in some states that crave it, depend on it, and have state government support for it.  That’s first and foremost the SEC.  Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana are opening back up for business in an aggressive manner v. many other states.  LSU announced its intention to have classes on campus as early as summer session number 2 in July.  “Maybe” is the answer for many schools as of now as they take a wait and see approach.
  5. What if half suit up and half don’t?  Follow the money.  Teams will reschedule opponents to the level they can to fill the fall calendar, and collect TV money to fill the bank accounts.
  6. Would the SEC go it alone and schedule a full slate of all in conference games?  It’s only a guess, but our answer is yes.  Why?  Aren’t you listening?  Follow the money.  If people are watching the NFL Draft, the MMA, and South Korean baseball (yes they are) in record numbers, can you imagine the ratings for SEC slugfests?  America is craving live sports.
  7. Could the season start late?  Sure.  It will have to if summer workouts and especially fall camps cannot start on time.  The risk of injury due to a lack of conditioning is real.  The fallout would be quite negative.  Sure.  The virus might have a thing or two to say about the date as well.  Sure.  The reconfigured schedule possibility could include fewer, and later in the fall games as an option.
  8. Would colleges field teams to play if they don’t have on-campus classes?  This one seems highly doubtful.  The criticism would be fast, furious, and ongoing.  The academic elite crowd already looks down their nose and around their reading glasses at the double standard of academics and big-time sports.  You can’t decide to virtually teach for social distancing safety and actually have sweat, blood, and tears flying on a field, can you?  The optic would be a difficult one to sell.

Take limited fans in the stands for $150 to win $100.

Take major college football being played for $100 to win $125.

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

So far the disappointments by conference have been Washington in the PAC 12, Florida St. (ACC) Texas (BIG 12), and Texas A&M (SEC).  While selecting the last three of these teams we wrote the following.  Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.  

This series concludes today a bit later than intended, but a lot quicker than the nonsense in Washington DC. So, last but not least, to the BIG 10 we go.  And, once again, we find a team with a rather highly touted second year coach at the helm.

Most Disappointing

As a player, Scott Frost, now the Nebraska head coach, was coached by Stanford’s Bill Walsh, Nebraska’s Tom Osborne, the New York Jets’ Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, and the Buccaneers’ Mike Tomlin and Jon Gruden.  That is one impressive list of teachers.

As a coach, Frost worked under Chip Kelly as first the WR coach, then took over the reins as  OC at Oregon.  He helped Marcus Mariotta guide the prolific offense and win the Heisman in 2014.  After the 2015 season he took over an 0-12 UCF program.  They immediately started to turn around.  In 2016 they finished 6-6 and in 2017 they won 13 and lost none, won the American Conference Championship and took down then ranked #7 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl.  That is one impressive turn around.

So optimism was high when the former Cornhusker player took the reins as it’s head coach in early 2018.   Nebraska finished 4-8 in 2018.  It just finished a 5-7 campaign this year that included a 2-4 record v Big 10 West Division foes, and 3-6 against the Big 10 in all.  Their wins came against South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern and Maryland.    The better teams on their schedule scored early and often v the leaky D.  The best teams like Ohio St., Minnesota, and Wisconsin beat them by 41,27, and 16 respectively proving that the road to success is still in the distance.

Against similar competition ,PJ Fleck guided the Golden Gophers to a 9-0 record in year three of his turnaround before fading (1-2) some in November.  Fleck’s first two teams went 5-7, then 7-6.   Perhaps the third time will be the charm for Frost and the Cornhuskers as well.  His resume points to that possibility, and his paycheck demands it.

Nebraska is the most disappointing team in the BIG 10.

Also Considered

Northwestern finished in the cellar of the East Division with a 1-5 record against that side, 1-8 in conference, and 3-9 overall.  In 2018, Northwestern captured the Big Ten West division title for the first time in school history, finishing with an 8–1 mark in conference play.  They went on to beat Utah in the Holiday Bowl as well.  It was a stunning and hard drop from last season to this one for the Wildcats.

It was indeed disappointing, but at Nebraska it’s been too long since they tore down the goal posts.  More is expected.

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week 15

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

And here come the NCAA Conference Championship games.  Whew.  That was quick.  Anyone having withdrawals before it’s even over?

After a week in NOLA Abby is having a few withdrawals of her own of a different kind.  But, the elixir proved to be mixed just like a fine hand crafted cocktail. It got the job done.

Her back to back weeks of picks from the road make you want one more round in the worst way.  Week 13’s won/loss record was 5-1, while week 14 was 4-1.  That brings her season long record to a fine 39-34. Woof. The way more important bones wagered took home ten of eleven then seven of eight.  Therefore, Abby has taken 78 of them from Vegas while only paying 55.  That is a degenerate gambler good win percentage of 58.6%  Woof!  Woof!  Meanwhile the hunch bet split the last two weeks and stands on all four legs at 10-5.  Woof!  Woof!  Woof!

Enough with the barking already.  It’s time to earn some more pats on the head.

Oregon + 7 v Utah –  The Utes are the best team no one has seen this year.  Oregon is the first ranked team, when the game is played, the Utes will play this year.  Utes win, Ducks cover.  One bone.

Baylor v Oklahoma -9 – The Bears are the second best team no one has seen play this year.  They led Oklahoma by 25 at one point in their first meeting.  Not this time. The Sooners make a statement by hanging half a hundo on Baylor to give the Playoff Committee something to think about.  Two Bones.

UAB +7 1/2 v FAU – Is Lane Kiffin’s honeymoon in south Florida over?  Rumors swirl about new girlfriends (head coaching jobs at Arkansas) every year about this time.  UAB dances with the one they brought and wins straight up.  One bone.

Georgia v LSU over 54 1/2 – Most of the talk pregame is about how good Georgia’s D is.  The rest of the talk is about how Georgia is either hurt or suspended at the skill positions.  It’s a zig when others zag.  Expect Georgia to put up 20 plus and LSU to put up 30 plus, just enough to cover on a fast track in the Mercedes Benz Georgia Dome.  Two bones.

Cincinnati v Memphis under 57 1/2 –  These two met last week and scored 58 total points.  Meeting in back to back weeks we like the under as Abby assumes (you know what happens when you assume?) the two D’s will learn from the film more than the two O’s will change what they do.  One bone.

We make no hunch bet this week.  But we do have a hunch.  On a hunch expect Oklahoma (if Georgia loses) to jump Utah and gain the #4 seed.

Woof, again!

P.S.  Abby howls at the moon in amazement at how the playoff committee ranks Alabama as low as they do.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

You deserve your nuggets today.  Last week the BBR Staff and it’s degenerate gambler and mascot Abby were on assignment in the greater south Louisiana area.  They covered LSU and the New Orleans Saints live.   They also covered bets.  But most of all, they watched more than wrote.  It’s now  time to write more on Al Gore’s internet with pearls of wisdom in the form of Ten Piece Nuggets below.  Crunch away.

  1.  The new AP College Top 25 is out.  We know, we know, the playoff rankings are more important.  But, you cannot wait till Wednesday AM for nuggets, you need them now.  It feels like the top 3 have separated themselves a bit.  LSU, THE Ohio State U, and Clemson are undefeated, ranked 1,2, and 3 and headed to their respective conference championship games as moderate to big favorites.  LSU hammered Texas A&M and dumbfounded Jimbo Fisher.  THE rolled over Michigan and dumbfounded Jim Harbaugh.  Clemson worked South Carolina and dumbfounded Will Muschamp.
  2. THE is #1 in the playoff ranks and did nothing to lose any ground.  The chase for the fourth spot is currently where the action is.  Georgia currently holds the #4 spot.  But, but, but.  Nipping on the heels of the Bulldogs are one loss Utah, one loss Oklahoma, and one loss Baylor.
  3. One loss #5 Utah meets two loss and #13 ranked Oregon in the PAC 12 championship this weekend.  Is a win and a Ga. loss enough to get them to the final four?  Sure.   But what if they do so, Ga. losses, and one loss #6 Oklahoma dispatches #8 Baylor?  What if Baylor dispatches Oklahoma?
  4. And, what if Ga beats LSU?  Does LSU hold onto the fourth spot as the best one loss team?  BBR thinks the following.  If Ga wins they are in.  IF Ga. loses they are out.  If Ga losses, a Utes win gets them in.  A Ga loss and a Ute loss opens the door wide for the Big 12 winner (Baylor/Okla) to charge through.
  5. Of course a THE loss or a Clemson loss creates additional chaos.  The early Vegas look at that possibility is out.  Vegas seems to think that isn’t possible.  THE is favored by a bullish 17 over # 10 Wisconsin in the BIG 10 Championship Game.  Clemson is favored by a whopping 28 over Virginia in the ACC Championship Game.
  6. LSU opened a 5 point favorite over Georgia, but as of this AM it’s climbed to 7.  Utah is the 6 1/2 point choice over Oregon.  Oklahoma is a 9 point pick over Baylor.
  7. Alabama, the every year participant since the new four team playoff format began, will have to watch the proceedings this year.  A young, injured, and leaky defense gave up 48 to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. And as a tying field goal bounced off of the left upright with two minutes to go, Bama’s playoff chances got bounced as well.
    )

    It was very un Saban like finish to a very un Saban like year.  He yelled at everyone all game.  Of course, he does that regardless of the score and the opponent.  Bama dropped to #9 with it’s second SEC loss .  Auburn moved up from #16 to #11 with the win.

  8.  Minnesota hosted game day Saturday morning.   Everyone wanted to “Row the Boat.”  Of course the snow and cold might have iced over any lake if they tried.  They then went out in said cold and snow and tried to beat Wisconsin.  Winner goes to the BIG 10 Championship Game.  Loser is out in the cold.  Whisky took care of their business dispatching the upstart Golden Gophers 38-17.  Minnie was ranked as high as #7 two weeks back.  They fell to #15.  It’s going to be another cold winter in Minnie.
  9. Some coaches were out in the cold before their season ended.  Some more were out as soon as their seasons ended this Saturday.  Barry Odom had four years to turn around Mizzo in the SEC East.  He didn’t.  Charlie Strong didn’t give any life to USF and was terminated.   BC parted ways with Steve Addazio after seven years.  Frank Wilson succeeded Larry Coker at UTSA but did not succeed in three seasons.
  10. And, finally, Matt Luke got booted from Ole Miss after his kicker booted an extra point try wide in a one point Egg Bowl loss to in state rival Moo St.   If you haven’t seen why the extra point attempt was from farther than usual, you can here.  If you scroll down the Russian announcers add their two rubles as well.  And it’s well worth it.  At press time there was no word on if Adam Schiff wants to subpoena them to testify in the impeachment inquiry.

You’ve had 4 days off.  Get back to it already.

Ten Piece Nuggets- NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The latest AP Top 25 Poll is out.  But, it almost could be reprinted from last week.  There was very little change except one significant one.  Onto the Ten Piece Nuggets which we will keep pretty lean today.  Thanksgiving and stuffed turkey is near.

  1.  Three of the top five won by convincingly beating  significantly inferior opponents.  Two won against good opponents.  Penn St. came to Columbus, Ohio as did College Game Day.  THE OSU helped Penn St back in, but won 28-17.   Texas A&M came to Athens, GA.  It was mostly rock em sock em defense as Georgia prevailed 19-13.
  2.  LSU’s win over Ar-Kansas and Georgia’s win over A&M set up a # 1 v. #5 SEC Championship game in two weeks.  Of course they must take care of business this week for it to be a 1v 5 matchup.  LSU hosts the Aggies while Georgia stays in state busing down to Georgia Tech.  The Tigers are favored by 17 while Georgia is favored by 28.
  3.  THE clinched the East BIG 10 Division and awaits the winner of the showdown this week in Madison, WI.  The Badgers host the Golden Gophers.   The winner of that contest wins the West BIG 10 Division.  It’s rivalry week across the fruited plains.  Ohio St has a date with Michigan.  Badgers, Gophers, Wolverines, and Buckeyes are three bad animals and one poisonous nut.  Whatever.
  4.  Alabama sits at #5 while Utah moved up one to #6.  We suspect that the playoff committee will slot them that way as well.  They both have to win out and have a watchful eye on the traffic above.  Alabama struggled (ahem) to get by Western Carolina 66-3.  The Iron Bowl v hated Auburn awaits.  In a betting line that is sure to raise a few eyebrows Bama is only a 3 1/2 point road favorite.  Does a Bama win combined with a Georgia loss put the Crimson Tide back in the final four?  Probably.
  5. Utah hosts Colorado and the Buffaloes stand in the way of a trip to the PAC 12 Championship game for Utah.  USC is done at 8-4 but only two of those losses are v PAC 12 opponents and they handed the Utes their only loss.  So, Utah must herd the Buffaloes to advance.  And, if they did, and knocked off two loss Oregon is that enough to jump Alabama into fourth should one of those above stumble?
  6. It would give Utah a one more win and only one loss resume v Bama’s resume.  Bama needs to beat Auburn of course or the point is moot.  Utah is a big 29 point favorite over Colorado.
  7.  Fear the Fork!  Oregon must not have feared it.  They went into Tempe with the same road to the playoffs hopes as described above for Utah.  They left Tempe with their second loss in hand.  The Sun Devils prevailed 31-28.  The Ducks lost more than a few feathers dropping from 6th all of the way down to 14th.  Rivalry week sends the Oregon St. Beavers to Eugene as 18 point underdogs.  At this point the Ducks can only win the rivalry game and play spoiler v. Utah in the conference championship game.
  8.  Minnesota climbed back into the top 10 at #9.  What does a win at Wisconsin, then a BIG 10 Championship game win over THE, combined with a Utah loss, and a Georgia loss do for them?  Probably nothing.  But, impossible is nothing.
  9.  Virginia Tech is playing solid late season football.  The Pittsburgh Panthers were shut out by the Hokies 28-0 on Saturday.  The Hokies entered the poll last week at #25 and moved up two to #23 this week.  In October and November Tech has six victories and a one point loss to Notre Dame to show for it’s efforts.  A season opening loss to woeful Boston College is way back in the rear view window now.  Tech is a team that you don’t want to draw in the bowl pairings.
  10. Texas was smarter than everyone else they told us when they spurned overtures from the SEC when rival A&M joined.  Texas was smarter than everyone else they told us when the hired Tom Herman.  Tom Herman must be smarting after his pregame no helmet on headbutt of a player with a helmet on attempted to motivate the Longhorns v. Baylor.  Baylor won 24-10.  Texas hosts Texas Tech this weekend.  They need the win to insure a winning season as they stand currently at 6-5.  The Longhorns are a nine point favorite in a game that will be lost among other rivalry week games that are relevant and actually are rivalries.

Turkey is good.  Nuggets are better!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Twelve

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby made her picks earlier this week as she is in Washington to honor Conan the Dog as you and all of America knows.  We suggested that she (e)mail her picks to us since she’s been mailing them in all year based on the results.  After two growls and one snarl she bared her canines and barked out the winners for the week.

For the season, after a 3-3 week, her record now stands at 26 wins and 30 losses.  But the more important bones wagered now is a paw up at 51 bones collected v. 50 buried.  Her hunch took a rare punch and fell to 9 wins against only 3 losses.

It’s week 12.  In honor of that we give you a baker’s dozen bones worth panting about below.

Memphis v Houston +10 1/2 – Memphis comes off an emotion charged home win over previously undefeated SMU.  No doubt that the Tigers are better than the Cougars.  But, Abby thinks the Tigers might be taking a cat nap, at least for a half, in this spot.  Two bones.

Georgia -3 v Auburn – Abby thinks that this is the game of the week to watch, though she prolly just wants to preen for UGA. Georgia is playing for everything as the current playoff 4th seed.  Late, in a slugfest, they cover.  Four bones.

Texas +7 v Iowa St. –  This line looks off to her.  Tom Herman has looked off in year two of his Longhorn tenure.  Abby looks for Texas to have a great chance to win outright. That would be their best win on the year, which isn’t saying very much.  Two bones.

Stanford +11 v. Washington St. –  You’ve heard this before, now you can hear it again.  Few teams in the PAC 12 deserve to be favored by double digits over few other teams.  One bone.

Michigan St. v Michigan -13 – This in state big rivalry game is always hard fought and usually pretty close.  Not this year.  The Spartans are fading and the Wolverines seem energized.  Two bones.

South Carolina v Texas A&M -12 and LSU v Mississippi +21 1/2 –  Abby is actually going to tease a parlay by buying six points for two teams.  She’ll take Texas A&M -6 and Mississippi + 27 1/2.  A two team teaser pays even money.  Two bones to win two bones.

There you have it.  It’s seven games, six bets, and thirteen bones.

Oh, and on a hunch Abby has spotted a CRAZY line.  UMass at 1-9 travels to 1-8 Northwestern.  How can Northwestern, inept at scoring be favored by 41 over anyone when they cannot score 41 on anyone?  Take Northwestern -41 on a hunch.  Why?  Because it makes absolutely no sense.  It’s a Vegas mind game.

Enjoy the games.

Woof!

 

 

 

(Not) Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Your nuggets are here.  There are only eight this morning. Why?  One, the treadmill awaits.  It’s easier to run on eight than ten.  Two, there were a lot of teams off last weekend, so the news is sparse.  Three, we want to do our part to help Elizabeth Warren fund universal health care, but we digress while you digest.

  1.  The AP Top 25 is out.  Tomorrow the first College Football Playoff committee top 15 will be out.  Then the fun starts.  Meanwhile the AP top 5 remained the AP top 5 in the same order as last week.  It’s LSU, Alabama, THE, Clemson, and Penn St. in that order.
  2. Four took the week off.  Clemson did too as they pummeled Wofford 59-14.  Who?  Wofford College (the Terriers) is in South Carolina. The team competes in the NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision and are members of the Southern Conference.  Wofford’s first football team was fielded in 1889.  Who knew?
  3. The Georgia Bulldogs jumped from #8 to #6 with their 24-17 victory over Florida.  The score was closer than the game.  The Bulldogs are now in the SEC East driver’s seat with at least a one game lead on everyone else and the tiebreaker over Florida.  Work remains with Missouri and A&M at home, and Auburn on the road however.  When Florida lost to LSU Dan Mullen complained about injuries on his DL.  When Florida lost to Georgia he complained about the officiating.  Thankfully hurricane season has come and gone, so no complaints there.
  4. Oregon stayed at #7, but certainly solidified that ranking.  They dismantled USC 56-24 Saturday evening.  Faint cries from the far northwest are being heard about the Ducks in the playoff conversation.  It’ll be quite interesting to see how carefully the playoff committee is listening.  When your one loss to date is early in the season it helps.  When your one loss early in the season is to Auburn who is behind four SEC teams in the Top 25 it hurts.
  5.  Florida and alligator tears producer Dan Mullen’s loss was Utah and Oklahoma’s gain.   They moved up to #8 and #9 respectively.  Utah had a nice win over Washington.  Perhaps they are on a collision course with Oregon in the PAC 12?  If they both can get there with one loss the winner will have an argument for the final four.  Oklahoma was idle.
  6. Minnesota stayed at lucky #13.  Their gaudy 8-0 record will be put to the test Saturday.  They host 8-0 Penn St.  Minnie head coach P.J. Fleck overtly encouraged ESPN to come to the winter hinterlands for College Game Day.  After all it is two 8-0 teams.  ESPN chose Tuscaloosa for a “Game of the Century, Part II” showdown in the SEC.  LSU v. Alabama it is.  Alabama has won the last eight contests.  Joe Burrow has only played in the last one.
  7. Memphis hopped from #24 up to #19 as they bounced previously undefeated SMU from #15 down to #23.  Defense was optional as the teams combined for a smooth 102 total points.  Memphis scored 54 of them.  The competitive American Athletic Conference has four ranked teams.  Cincinnati is #17, Memphis #19, and SMU is #23.  All hail Navy at #25.
  8. The Florida St. alumni have seen enough.  The Willie Taggart experiment is over 9 games into year two.  Losing to the Miami Hurricanes was the last storm they would ride out.  Three wins and six losses into 2019, Taggart is out.  Florida St. is paying the $18 million buyout price.  But see below.  It’s more expensive than that.

    When the Seminoles hired Taggart away from Oregon, they agreed to pay out his $3 million buyout to end his contract with the Ducks. Florida State also agreed to pay out an additional $1.3 million that Oregon still owed South Florida when they hired him away from that school in 2016.

    So, in the end, Florida State will have paid over $22 million, across three buyouts, so that Taggart could go 9-12 with them in 21 games.

    Maybe these one percenters could help Elizabeth pay for her costly healthcare plan as well?  Surely the first game dehydration problems that Florida St. experienced would be covered.  Pass the hat before the players pass out.

  9. Football in the state of Florida is down this year.  UCF parades not.  Mullen cries a lot.  Taggart was tapped out.  Miami is meh at 5-4, and they have zero wins over top 25 teams.  Let the coaching rumor mill begin.  The Seminoles will aim high.  Urban Meyer?  Nah, he needs the healthcare plan.  Jeff Brohm anyone?  His contract with Purdue includes a buyout, but clearly that won’t stop the Seminoles.
  10. Some early lines are out.  In the two battles of unbeatens visiting LSU is a 6 point dog to Alabama while visiting Penn St is a 6 point favorite over Minnesota.

Ok, ok.  You were over served.  We know the feeling.  More is always better than less, isn’t it?  Hit the treadmill.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Ten

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As Halloween gives way to All Saints Day it’s spooky, despite some up and down weeks, how close to flat line Abby’s season to date results have been.  It’s tricky, but there’s been one treat.  Her hunch bet rang the door bell again and the candy flows.

For the season that bet is carving up Vegas like a pumpkin.  It’s 8 up and only 2 down.  The other bets are 21 up and 24 down, while the bones wagered are exactly even with 42 up and 42 down.

Lots of teams took this weekend off, but Abby never sleeps.  But, she is tired of the kids knocking on the front door.  The bobbing for apples begins below.

Kansas St v. Kansas +6 —  The Wildcats come off of a huge upset over Oklahoma while the Jayhawks upset the Red Raiders.  Abby thinks Red Raiders sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Les Miles has his team playing well.   Abby likes the six at home.  Two bones.

TCU v. Oklahoma St -3 — TCU comes off of a nice home win v. Texas.  Oklahoma St. comes home after a nice road win v. Iowa St.  Abby’s favorite movie is A Dog’s Way Home.  How bout dem Cowboy’s?  One bone.

Miami v. Florida St. -3 —  The Seminoles haven’t beaten a good team all year.  Miami isn’t a good team.  Abby thinks Seminoles sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Willie Taggart needs this one in the worst way.  The Noles cover late.  One bone.

Oregon v. USC + 4 1/2  and under 62—  Oregon needs to win out to make playoff noise.  This one won’t be easy, but we think they find a way to win but not cover in a game that actually has some West Coast defense.  One bone to win three bones.

Georgia -6 v. Florida —  Abby’s admittedly been back and forth on this game all week.  She is partial to Bulldogs and doesn’t like Gators.  But she bets with her head not her heart.  The six points seem like the side to be on in what seems like a coin flip game. But, she’s going to zig when others zag. Two bones.

The over/under points total in the Largest Outdoor (formerly known as Cocktail) Party is 45.  It seems low.  Abby thinks the word cocktail wasn’t insensitive but we digress.  She also thinks that when the line is yelling over she’ll take the under on a hunch.

Don’t you hate those cheap candy corns?

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most. 

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested) to review the first 3 of our 5 picks.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk. Tomorrow we conclude with the final two.

5.  Kansas over 3 wins, bet $100 to win $130, current record 3-5

–  The Jayhawks lost in week 2 to Coastal Carolina.  Jeez.  The bet would be a winner in just eight weeks if they would have taken care of a non FBS opponent at home.  We repeat, “at home.”

–  Head Coach Les Miles fired his OC on 10/6.  He announced that Brent Dearmon had been promoted to the role in place of Les Koenning, who was dismissed from the program. Koenning was part of Miles’ initial Kansas staff this offseason.  The results were immediately positive.  They put 48 on Texas and 37 on Texas Tech in the last two weeks.

– Worst outcome.  Worst case the bet pushes (no money is lost nor won) as they have three wins already.

– Best outcome.  We win the bet with one more victory with four games left.

– Outlook.  With Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma St., and Baylor left the road is uphill.  They’ll likely be underdogs by double digits in all four contests.

– Prediction.  Ole Les Miles, aka The Mad Hatter, pulls one more Jayhawk win out of his hat.  The bet wins $130.

4.  Oregon over 9 wins, bet $100 to win $105, current record 7-1

– The Ducks led until the last seven seconds in the season opener v. Auburn.  It is their lone loss to date.

– The Ducks are in the meat of their schedule but can rely on an above average defense for once in addition to their always productive O.  The road win at Washington two weeks ago was helpful.  They have their sites set on winning out to get into the playoff conversation. That’s good for the wager.

– Worst outcome.  If the Ducks take on water and paddle to a 1-3 or 0-4 finish the bet could still tank.

– Best outcome.  A 3-1 or 4-0 finish makes the ticket a winner.

– Outlook.  Oregon finishes with at USC, home Arizona, at Arizona St, and home Oregon St.  They are favored by 4 1/2 v USC this week.  It’s the toughest game left for them, though an Arizona St. night road battle could be troublesome.  The two home games are wins if they come to play.  Mario Cristobal has had them ready for every game so far.

– Prediction.  A loss to USC and three wins to close out the season makes their record 10-2.   The bet wins $105.

3.  Kentucky under 6 1/2 wins, bet $100 to win $100, current record 4-4

– The Wildcats up and down season was expected as a program like this would struggle to replace what Bennie Snell and Josh Allen brought to the team last year.

– A bad effort and loss to Miss St. was offset by a put down of Missouri this past weekend 29-7.

– Worst outcome.  With three games remaining at home and all four games winnable, the bet crashes and burns.

– Best outcome.  An improving Tennessee team follows up last week’s win with another this week in Kentucky and Vandy at home knocks them off the week thereafter.  That puts them at 6-6 at best.

– Outlook.  After the two games above they host TN-Martin and Louisville.  TN Martin is a win and if they need a win over in state rival Louisville at home to get bowl eligible they might just show their teeth.

– Prediction. – TN Martin gives them 5 wins.  Can they win two of three from Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Louisville?  The Wildcats O struggles to score against good defenses, but we only see one decent D on this four game dance card.  It says here that they win three of the last four to finish 7-5, but we are still quite hopeful that they could finish 6-6.  The bet loses $100.

Tomorrow we’ll review the final two, Mississippi St. under and Texas A&M over.

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby began the second half of the NCAA football season more like a lion roaring than a dog barking last week.  Vegas called and offered her a comped dog suite this week complete with a mani and pedi bar, lap pool, and a dog run in hopes of getting her back to the sports book.  For the week she won four of five against the spread, collected a very impressive eight of nine bones, and punched the hunch bet ticket yet again.  Vegas needs to try to get even.

For the season Abby’s four paws stand at 19 wins and 16 losses, winning 38 and losing 29 bones wagered, and improved her hunch bet to a gaudy six wins and only two losses.

As a reminder each bone is the hypothetical equivalent of betting $11 to win $10 as Vegas takes the $1 juice when they win.  So in winning 38 bones she has collected $380 (38 x $10).  In losing 29 bones she has lost $319 (29 x $11).  The net take season to date is $61 on a win percentage of 57% (38/67).   If you bet $11 on each hunch bet you would have won $60 while giving back only $22.  Enough with the calculus, and on to this week’s opportunities.

It’s big spreads and big home dogs week.  Abby loves home dogs, but is wary of big home dogs and big favorites.  In the top 6 Alabama, LSU, THE, Clemson and Wisconsin are all on the road and are favored by an average of 27 points while Oklahoma is a 33 1/2 home favorite.  Woof!  Be careful.

Purdue v. Iowa -17 —  Iowa’s offensive scores are few and far in between.  Iowa’s defensive scores allowed are even fewer and farther in between.  Purdue has underwhelmed Abby to this point.  It’s a Big 10 grind and an Iowa win 33-10 with a late cover.  One bone.

Florida -5 v. South Carolina and Under 46 1/2 —  Will Muschamp, fresh off of a huge road upset over Georgia, hopes that his team can keep the mojo going at home.  Dan Mullen, fresh off of a 42-28 LSU road loss, hopes his Gators can recapture the mojo that lead to the 6-0 start.  Abby will pair the Gator win with the under.  Both teams scored a lot last week, while this one sets up to be a slobber knocker.  One bone to win Three Bones.

Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4—  Has Abby ever mentioned that she loves home dogs?

The Orangemen’s season is basically on the line here.  They are one of the bigger disappointments season to date in the Power Five Conferences.  Abby is sniffing an outright win, but will wag her tail if she gets a cover.  Two bones.

Florida St. +2 v. Wake Forest —  Willie Taggert said last week that his team is close to being “right there” again in the ACC.  Then they went out and got worked by the Clemson Tigers.  If there is any fight left in the Seminoles (seems like an offensive name to Abby) they’ll win straight up.  Two bones.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St -4 —  On paper this almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Abby has been long on the resurgent Bears all year.  But, the line and the spot seem right for a Cowboy victory by about a touchdown.  We’ll call it 38-31 Okie St.  One bone.

Oregon v. Washington +3 —  Abby chases ducks whenever possible.  Her Husky friend does the same.  Oregon seems to be the best in the west by a fair margin.  But, we see two loses on their tail feathers and this is the second and final one.  One Bone.

On a hunch Abby is taking LSU v. Mississippi St. under 62 total points.  LSU has nearly averaged that on their own this year.  But.  This game is sandwiched in between Florida and Auburn.  LSU runs the ball a lot this week, rests several regulars, serves a few more suspensions, and plays some D to hold Moo St. to less than 17.

Start spreading the news.  Abby also likes the ball in Verlander’s hand tonight.

Woof!