NFL

The NFL’s Seeds are Sown.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NFL rules committee reviews in painstaking detail all proposed changes to its game and its league once each year.  The definition of what a catch is, a fumble is, and what roughing the quarterback is has changed far too often for well-intentioned but misguided reasons.  Booth reviews became a necessity when the complexity of the rules rose exponentially.

However, one competitive rule that has not changed in many years is how playoff teams are seeded and how the resultant path to the Super Bowl paved.  We think that it’s the best format of any major sport and second place isn’t close.   Why?  We briefly touch on that in a few thoughts below.

  1. In each conference if you make it as a wild card you travel in week one of the playoffs to the two lower seeded (of the four) division champions.  You’re in, but your road is three games long and all three are away from home.  Advantage division champions.
  2. The survivors of wild card weekend travel to the one and two seeded team’s stadiums.  The lowest seed travels to the one seed, the other to the two seed.  Advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  3. The one and two seeds have the wild card weekend off.  After five months of physical grind this is a very welcome respite. Big advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  4. The highest remaining seed after the second weekend hosts the lower seed.  If the seeds hold this is the last advantage earned by the number one seeded division champ.

So what happened this past weekend?  Points three and four above is what happened.  The AFC and NFC top two seeds hosted and held serve in all four games.  Their success in the regular season earned them this leg up and they made good use of it.

On average three of the four home teams in the just completed division championship weekend win.  However, this year it was all four.  Many “experts” talked about how competitive the four visiting teams (Indianapolis, Dallas, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Philadelphia) would make those games.  Indy was done by halftime.  Dallas tried, but never climbed back in from a 13 point halftime deficit.  The Chargers were manhandled.  Only Philly was within a touchdown late in the fourth.

Visitors have tired legs.   Home teams have a week off to rejuvenate tired legs.  Speed kills on the football playing field.

Therefore, in the NFL every regular season game matters.  Maybe the committee will figure out what constitutes a catch one day.  Hopefully it will keep them so busy trying to figure that out that they will leave the seeding system and rewards of it exactly as is.

This coming weekend the best four teams in the NFL will decide who the best two teams in the NFL are.

 

 

In the NFL Fashion is King(sbury).

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Psst!  Want to know a little secret about the fashion industry?  When it accomplishes its goal it makes you want to go out and buy something new.  You see the new on tv, magazines, websites, runways, etc.   Suddenly what was new in your closet is old.  You want the new.  You need the new.  You have to have it and have it now.  Suddenly all stores, all designers, all price points are chasing the latest.  Copycats they are.

Psst! Want to know a little secret about the NFL?  When one team has success doing something a certain way or hiring a certain type of coach others follow quickly.  The owners have to have it and have it now.  Copycats they are.

What’s the latest?  The latest is the Sean McVay model.  Sean McVay (born January 24, 1986) is the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams. Upon his hiring in 2017 at the age of 30, he became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. But most of all he is thought of as a “quarterback whisperer.”  Young Jared Goff exploded onto the “franchise qb” scene last year under McVay’s tutelage.  Combine that with McVay’s youth,daring play calling, and “can do” personna and, suddenly, orange is the new black.

Heck just a few weeks ago, before the weather worsened, teams were engaging in games that were lighting up scoreboards.  Forty something to forty something final scores were in style.  Experts looked at these new designs on all of the fashion shows preening down the runways and pronounced it as the new NFL.

Enter the Arizona Cardinals.  After they parted ways with Bruce Arians (Arizona’s most successful coach since they moved to the desert) in 2017 after five seasons, in came a former DC and DB coach Steve Wilks.  But, after one bad season and no real development of their first round QB draft pick Josh Rosen, out goes the defensive mindset.

Enter Kliff Kingsbury as the new head coach of the Cardinals.  Young ole’ Kliff was terminated by the Texas Tech powers that be after his head coaching ascension there stalled in December at the end of season six.  He accepted the OC job at USC a week or so ago.  Then poof!  Hopefully his lease was minute to minute.

But like Jimmy cracked corn, the Cardinals don’t care about his head coaching past nor his lack of loyalty to USC.  After all he was the OC under Kevin Sumlin at A&M when Johnny “Football” Manziel hit the big screen.  Oh, and then he coached Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech.  Surely he is the next QB guru just like skinny jeans are the new bell bottoms.

Meanwhile, last weekend, both Sunday playoff games entered halftime with none of the four participants scoring a single touchdown.  That was a first.  Ever.  That came on the unfashionable heels of a December 9th Bears defensive shutdown of the high flying Rams 15-6.

The post season credo has been “you have to be able to stop the run and run the ball” to win in the post season.  But, copycat franchises have to have that new fashion fix.  Good luck.

Maybe black is actually the new orange?

 

 

I Have Yet Another Story and a Moral Thereof

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In August of 1971 the third round draft pick of the New Orleans Saints, Bivian Lee, began practicing with the team that had high hopes for a breakout year.  Also in August of 1971 the high hopes of civic leaders were realized as construction finally began on the largest indoor stadium in the world, the New Orleans Superdome.

Sports visionary David Dixon (who decades later founded the United States Football League) conceptualized the Superdome while attempting to convince the NFL to award a franchise to New Orleans. After hosting exhibition games at Tulane Stadium during typical New Orleans summer thunderstorms, Dixon was told by NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle that NOLA would have no chance for an NFL expansion team without a domed stadium.

It was hoped the stadium would be ready in time for the 1972 NFL season, at the final cost of $46 million. Instead, construction did not start until August 1971, and was not finished until August 1975.   Factoring in inflation, construction delays, and the increase in transportation costs caused by the 1973 oil crisis, the final price tag of the stadium was nearly four times the estimated.  It was a bloated $165 million.

Meanwhile Bivian and the Saints stumbled along in years 1971,2,3 and 4.  The cumulative record of the team for those four seasons was 16-37-3.  Bivian was good, not great.  The Saints were bad, not good.  High hopes were not yet realized.

Yet hope springs eternal.  It was now August of 1975.  A new NFL season was four preseason games away.  And for the Saints it meant a new home, the Superdome, and a fresh start.

Preseason games are for practice and ironing out the kinks for the most part.  For the operation of the Superdome it was much the same warmup for its soon to be regular season grand opening.

On a steamy NOLA summer Saturday night 70,000 plus fans packed the dome to savor all if its grandeur for an otherwise meaningless preseason game.  Bivian Lee was entering his fifth year and was once again starting at cornerback for the franchise.  That the Saints lost was forgettable.  How they lost was forgettable too.  The stadium was the story.

Well, the why and how of the loss was forgettable until a reporter asked Bivian about getting beat for two touchdowns early in the contest.  He assured all that he would be better in the regular season.  The reporter asked if maybe Bivian had any trouble adjusting to all of the ceiling lights since it was the first game played under them.  He said yes, but again said not to worry.  When the reporter asked why the confidence, Bivian replied with confidence.  “Because this game was played at night.  And, the regular season games will be played in the day.”

The 1975 season ended as a major disappointment at 2 wins and 12 losses.   The 1975 season was also the end of Bivian Lee’s professional career.

Oh, are you wondering what the moral of the story is?  Apparently you don’t have to be too bright of a light to play under the bright lights of the world renown Superdome.

 

 

The Rare, but Fair, Fair Catch Kick.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

File this one under the “did you know.”   It’s a good one for around the water cooler to kickoff(see what we did there?) the New Year.  You really didn’t want to work very hard this week anyway did you?  Heck., it’s already late Hump Day or Thirsty Thursday depending on when you read this.

Four juicy NFL playoff games are looming.  Could one end in a last second touchdown pass?  Possible.  Could one end with a last second field goal?  Probable.  Could one end in a last second fair catch kick?  Say what?

Per NFL.com after a fair catch, the receiving team has the option to put the ball in play by a snap or a fair catch kick (field goal attempt), with fair catch kick lines established ten yards apart. All general rules apply as for a field goal attempt from scrimmage. The clock starts when the ball is kicked. (No tee permitted.)

Obviously, the plan can’t unfold without the right conditions. You need pin your opponent deep and force a punt with time expiring or near to expiration.

This is the time that might be right to call for a fair catch followed by a free kick.  Think of it as a kickoff formation where the receiving team must remain minimally ten yards back from the spot of the kick. But, the big difference is that if the kick goes through the uprights it’s good for three points.

After you have successfully executed the fair catch, you have the opportunity to align for a free kick. The ball can be placed anywhere along the line of scrimmage, so the kicker has the opportunity to line his kick up wherever he wants it.  The ball is live after the kick and can be returned by the opposing team if it stays in the field of play.

In high school, the kicking team is allowed to use any legal tee, including the one for kick-offs. Also, in high school if the ball goes into the end zone it’s automatically considered a touchback.

It’s critical that the punting team players not interfere with the fair catch.  If the team fair catching is interfered with, they will march off 15 yards and the fair catch is still awarded, which means they may attempt a free kick even if there is no time left and fifteen yards closer.

Has a fair catch free kick happened before in an NFL game? Yes.  Research is a bit sketchy, but it looks like there have only been 21 free kicks attempted in NFL history, and only three since 1990. There hasn’t been a successful attempt since Ray Wersching made a 45-yarder entering halftime in a Bills-Chargers game in 1976.

Will it happen again?  Sure.  It’s only a matter of when, not if.  With the increasing length and accuracy of kickers today the field is stretched further, increasing the possibility.  With no oncoming rush allowed, isn’t a 70 yarder soon in the cards?

It’s an obscure rule for sure.  One wonders how many NFL coaches are even aware.  But it might come in very handy one day soon.  Oh, and you can drop kick a free kick too.  Never heard of a drop kick?  Drop back in soon and we will examine that obscure, but not lost opportunity, as well.

It’s rare, but it’s fair.  And, it’s free.  It’s the fair catch free kick.

 

Better to Beware Bettor.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

After Santa Claus has come and gone comes the final regular season weekend in the NFL.  Santa comes to town the 25th of every December.  You can bank on it.   The last week of the NFL regular season occurs right afterwards.  You can bank on it.  What you cannot bank on, however, is predicting the outcome of NFL games.

And, week 17 is toughest of all.  Why, you might ask? That can be answered with one easy question.  Who cares?  That is the question.  How can you tell which team cares enough in week 17 to actually give it their all.

Reasons for indifference about winning this Sunday abound.  If you are in the playoffs do you rest some or all of your starters?  If so, do you rest some or all for some or all of the game?  If you need to win to get into the playoffs, do your chances vaporize prior to your kickoff based on results from earlier games that day?  If you are out of the playoffs, do you play for pride(an overused battle cry)?  Or, do you mail it in?  Do you play for your favorite coaches job?  Do you play for your own job?  Does the franchise tank the game to improve their draft position?  Is it time to give that backup quarterback his chance?   Questions far outweigh answers.

All of those legit questions aside, let’s examine a few games and be dumb brave enough to take a stab at their outcomes.  If you bet real money and take advice from the guesses below, we suggest that you stop betting real money.  Or, at least tread very lightly in week 17.

Miami at Buffalo(-3.5)  – Here is the classic two teams playing for pride (read as “nothing”) game.  Miami fired their GM yesterday.  Does that mean their coach’s job is safe?   Oh, and why is Buffalo favored?  We guess it’s because they’re at their home stadium.  Home is also a place where they can get cozy by the fireplace to watch the playoffs.   For no good reason at all, take Miami plus the points.

Detroit at Green Bay(-8.0) – Detroit annually disappoints.  This team lived down to its expectations.  They’ve been mentally out for months and statistically eliminated for weeks.  Green Bay is in the unfamiliar position of playing out the string.  Are they playing to help Joe Philbin get the vacant HC job?  Doubtful.   Are they the better team?  No doubt.  When in doubt take more than a touchdown in any NFL game, anytime.  Except this week.  We’ll take GB to win the game and cover late somehow.

Jacksonville at Houston(-6.5) – Jacksonville imploded weeks ago.  However, they rose from the ashes last weekend.  Houston has a division championship on the line and playoff seeding(possibly) implications at stake.  Best of all Houston lost on the road in a close one last week.  This seems like one of the few games this week that is a good betting spot.  We’ll take Houston to win on the money line though it’s expensive at 3-1.  And we’ll take Houston to cover the 6.5 a well.

Carolina at New Orleans(-9.0) – New Orleans has already secured a bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Carolina shut down weeks ago in the midst of a six game losing streak.  As a result, they shut down Cam Newton two weeks ago due to an ailing wing.  His backup is now hurt.  Enter third stringer Kyle Allen for his NFL debut.  Brees and most of his ailing offensive line might not play at all.  Enter Teddy Bridgewater for his Saints debut.  You get the picture?  Take Carolina plus nine in what will look like a final preseason game though we expect the Saints to win a fairly close one.  Call it 24-18 for grins.

Cincinnatti at Pittsburgh(-14.0) – This one is tricky.  Baltimore hosts the suddenly angry Cleveland Browns at the same time.  If Baltimore wins Pittsburgh is eliminated from the playoff chase.  Pittsburgh might be angry too after a hard fought, close loss to New Orleans last weekend.  Meanwhile we expect Cleveland to keep it close v. Baltimore with the Ravens winning on a late FG.  Pittsburgh never mails it in.  We expect them to score early and often and do a bit of scoreboard watching along the way.  It’s hard to spot 14 points in any NFL game.  We will.  Take Pittsburgh minus.

Good luck wagering in week 17.  You might be better off putting your money at risk in the stock market.  Sorry, too soon?

 

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yummy.  The holiday food and sweets are all around.  Gaining weight(more) unfortunately has never been so easy.  Another food group heats up around Christmas and the New Year as well.  The NFL treats us to some wonderful nuggets as the regular season barrels to the  finish.  Enjoy them one at a time below.  And when you are done, please pass the pecan pie.

  1. The NFL’s oldest head coach, Pete Carroll, is 67.  He’ll be three years older and still leading the Seahawks in 2021 as he agreed to a three-year contract extension yesterday.  This comes a day after his team secured a wild card playoff berth last evening.  Carroll’s Seahawks have made the playoffs for the seventh time in his nine years at the helm.
  2. The New Orleans Saints secured the NFC home field advantage throughout the playoffs in a well contested, entertaining scrap with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superdome.  Significant?  Very.  The Saints haven’t lost a playoff game in their Superdome home with Drew Brees executing what Sean Payton cooks up.  Ever.  In 2009, as the no. 1 seed they held serve at home, beat Indy in Miami, and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
  3. Pittsburgh fought valiantly for 60 minutes and came up just short.  They went from being the leader in their division to currently being on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  This weekend they have to beat Cincinnati and hope that either a) Cleveland beats Baltimore, or b) Indianapolis and Tennessee somehow play to a tie.  Pitt is a tough team with a very good coach.  It’s hard to believe that they may be home for good after the holidays.
  4. Raise your hand if you thought Cleveland might be playing in a meaningful game in late December.  The Browns are 7-7-1.  A win would give them their first winning season since 2007.  It would also possibly give Pitt postseason life.  And last but not least, it would give Gregg Williams a nice page or two to add to his PowerPoint presentation as he tries to get the word interim removed from his current title of interim head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
  5. The Houston Texans lost to Philadelphia 32-30.  They also lost their hold on the no. 2 AFC playoff seed and with it a first round bye as a byproduct.  They actually even lost a chance to clinch the AFC South Division as surging Indy lurks oh so closely.  But, rest assured the Texans won when they drafted DeShaun Watson.  His brilliance almost took the Eagles down in their nest.  Watson dazzled the hard to please Philly crowd with 29-40 passing for 339 yards and two touchdowns.  He ran into the end zone for two more.  How he amassed those lofty stats was more impressive than those lofty stats themselves.  That Mahomes is getting national run is elementary.  But, Houston’s dear Watson isn’t far behind.
  6.  The MNF Raiders’ game might have been the last one at the Oakland Coliseum.  Viva Las Vegas.  Speaking of Vegas every road underdog in the NFL either won straight up or covered the spread afforded them.  Betting the NFL from week to week is crazier than having money in the stock market right now.  Ouch, that hurt.  That game versus the Broncos also brought down the curtain on yet another MNF season of broadcasts.  The NFL wants all games this coming weekend to conclude by Sunday to level the playoff playing field.  If only that would bring down the curtain on Jason Whiten’s announcing career.  Ouch, that hurt.
  7.  Quick quiz.  In how many of the last 16 NFL seasons have the New England Patriots won ten or more regular season games?  If you said 16 that would be correct.  Impressive.  Of course playing the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills a total of six times a year helps.  Of course so does having Tom Brady.  The next closest is Indy (thanks Peyton Manning) with 11.
  8. The Vegas Raiders and the Mistake by the Lake Browns have only one ten win season each in those same 16 years.  The NFL structures their league to provide plenty of help to those that cannot help themselves.  We detailed those thoughts recently.  It’s hard to be that bad for that long in the NFL.  These two teams have a lot in common over that time.  They both have or had bad ownership, bad draft picks, bad cap management, and a revolving door at the quarterback position.
  9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t far ahead or behind depending on your viewpoint.  Sunday’s loss to America’s Team marked the seventh season in the last ten that the Bucs have lost ten or more. Jameis Winston’s rookie contract is up.  Will TB offer the available one year extension to it? This decision about one year has ramifications for many.  Perhaps a call to Nick Foles agent would help in the decision-making process.
  10.  Baltimore was once 4-5 six games ago.  Enter Lamar Jackson at QB.  The Ravens are 5-1 since.  The only loss in that span was in a very hostile Arrowhead Stadium.  Saturday night the Ravens traveled three time zones to the left coast and held the hot Chargers to a stone cold 10 points, winning by 12.  If you are looking for a dark horse, or a dark bird, to make a playoff run look no further than the Ravens.  They run the ball very well and defend the run very well.  That’s a winning January combination.

Is a scoop of homemade vanilla ice cream on top of the pecan pie a bit over the top?  Hmm.