NFLcommentary

It’s Just Week Two, But…..

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Are you ready for some Thursday Night Football?  The 0-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Charlotte to face the 0-1 Carolina Panthers this evening.  ” Ho hum,” you say?  Understood.

The teams battle a quick four days after season opening losses.  And both teams lost at home to teams who traveled to time zones from the west to beat them.  The LA Rams beat Carolina 30-27, while the SF 49ers left the Tampa Bay area with a 31-17 victory.

If you’re underwhelmed imagine if you are a fan of one of the two staring 0-2 in the face five days after the season opened.  And, this game is a division game which carries added importance.   “One and one” sounds ok.  “Oh and two” sounds early season dreadful.

And, eight times out of nine, season long dreadful it is.  Since 2007, 91 teams have started 0-2.  Only 10 of them (10.9 percent) have turned the sluggish start around and made the playoffs.   One of those (the 2008 Chargers) made it with an 8-8 record. The Saints last season, the Dolphins in 2016, the Texans and Seahawks in 2015, the Colts from 2014, the 2013 Panthers, the Dolphins, Chargers and Vikings in 2008, and the 2007 Giants are the only others.  And, of course, that Giants team won the Super Bowl that season.

Carolina missed the playoffs in 2018 with a 7-9 record.  Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007.  TB has finished last in the NFC South in seven of the last eight woeful years.

In the NFL you don’t need to look too much further than quarterback play to figure out who is ascending in the league and who has hit bottom.  For Carolina good, but inconsistent quarterbacking by Cam Newton tells most of the story.  Tonight he starts his 125th game as a pro.  He’s won 68, lost 54, and tied 1.  His career qb rating is 86.3.  Seventeen active QB’s with more than 50 starts rank higher.  In his defense his surrounding offensive cast hasn’t always been the best.  However, the Carolina defense has usually been between good and very good.  Cam is a sneaky 30, but in the QB friendly league that the NFL has become, he’s still got time to write better chapters in his story.  It’s time to start.

The Jameis Winston story, however, is another story.  Winston starts game 56 of his career tonight.  His record is a dreadful 21-24.  Winston’s QB rating is a shade higher than Newton’s at 87.0.   Fifteen active QB’s with more than 50 starts rank higher.   He played one year under Lovie Smith and three under recently fired Dirk Koetter.  Supposed QB whisperer Bruce Ariens now takes the helm.   Stability in the TB coaching has been wanting.  Also, in his defense his team’s defensive cast hasn’t been good.  However, the weapons around Winston have been solid, and sometimes border very good.  Four seasons in plus game one of five,and only 25 years old, he has plenty of time to write better chapters in his story.  Like Cam, it’s time to start.  Past time really.  Winston’s not looked at around the league as a leader, and his maturity has been questioned.  And “been questioned” is being nice.

Remember, “oh and two” means you sit home in January eight times of nine.  It might be week two, but this underwhelming match up could be a pivot point for both franchises.

On May 16, 2018, David Tepper, formerly a minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, finalized an agreement to purchase the Panthers. The sale price was nearly $2.3 billion, a record.  Ron Rivera has been head coach for them since 2010.  You don’t shell out 2.3 billion for average.  If you miss the playoff this year does Ron go?  Cam’s deal is through 2020.  A new coach would have a year to work with him.

For Tampa, Ariens either fixes Winston this year, or not.  If not, Winston is likely out.  His contract expires after this season.

For a “ho hum” game, played just five days into the season, more is on the line than might normally meet the eye.

Which QB will pass the ball and the eyeball test best?

 

 

 

,

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The cartoon character Wimpy would often offer to pay Popeye on Tuesday for a hamburger today.  Well, it’s Tuesday, time for Wimpy to pay up.  And, if it’s Tuesday, it’s time for us to cook up our Ten Piece Nuggets.  Except ours are free of charge and served below.

  1.  The New Orleans Saints said welcome back to the NFL to their prized WR Michael Thomas after a week one holdout late last week.  Thomas rejoined the team and joined the 100 million dollar club.  The contract is for five years and guarantees 61 million.  It’s the highest dollar contract for a WR ever.  Not bad money if you can get it.  He enters his fourth year after entering the league as a second round pick.
  2. Which WR’s went ahead of him in the 2016 draft? In round one it was 15. Corey Coleman, 21. Will Fuller, 22. Josh Doctson, and 23. Laquan Treadwell.  In round two at 40th overall Sterling Shepard was taken.  If you can even name which teams these five play on you play too much fantasy football.   Thomas was taken 47th overall.   In three years he has caught 321 passes, good for 3787 yards, and 23 TD’s.  Shepard, also a second rounder, has caught 190 balls which is good by far for second place in this underwhelming group.
  3. Atlanta wants to keep up with the Joneses though.  Soon, very soon, they will make Julio Jones the highest paid receiver in the NFL.  And, they should.  The now 30 year old is two catches shy of 700 and has over 10k yards receiving.  If Atlanta won more often, or if he played for a higher profile team he would be even more well respected for his abilities.  He is but a few strong seasons away from Hall of Fame type numbers.
  4. Drew Brees was on The Dan Patrick Show late last week.  He finished second on the NFL Network countdown of the 100 best players.  It’s the players who vote for these players making it one of the best lists of “best of” in BBR’s opinion.  Patrick asked Brees his opinion of who should be number one.  Without hesitation, Brees agreed with the voting that placed Aaron Donald, DT Rams, as the very best.  Brees said, in effect, that Donald was special, and really in a league of his own.  Patrick then asked who he thought should be second.  Without hesitation again he said, “Tom Brady.”  “Why?” asked Patrick.  “Six Super Bowl wins,” Brees responded.  “A quarterback is ultimately judged on wins,” he concluded.
  5. Speaking of winning, most every NFL year multiple teams (usually 3 or more) that went 6-10 or worse the year prior go 10-6 or better the next year and make the playoffs.  It’s the parity the NFL covets.  Easier schedules, health, luck, and higher draft picks help.  It’s just rather hard to predict who.
  6. So, who went 6-10 or worse last year?  The Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Bucs, Lions, and Packers did so in the NFC.  In the AFC it was the Bills, Jets, Broncos, Raiders, Bengals and Jaguars with the dubious distinction.
  7.  The obvious choice from the above is the Green Bay Packers.  Reasons to like them are 1) a healthy Aaron Rodgers, 2) an easier schedule that last year, 3) a bevy of high draft choices, 4) a more aggressive D, and 5) the enthusiasm  and culture change a new head coach brings.
  8.  Guessing who else is just that, guessing.   BBR likes the  San Francisco 49ers as a possibility..  The 49ers D isn’t bad.  We are putting a lot of faith in  the Jimmy Garropolo that went 5-0 in his first five starts at the end of 2017.  And Nick Bosa is a beast coming off of the edge.
  9.  Who else?  Here is a long shot to do so  Da Raidas.  The Raiders bottomed out purposely last year.  They stocked up on some high character hard nose draft picks and are in the midst of changing their culture with Gruden and Mayock running the show that moves to Vegas in 15 months.  They might be more of a 2020 pick in year one in Sin City.
  10.  Watching the Cleveland Browns will be fascinating this year.  They haven’t had this much hype and hope in the Dawg Pound since the team was reborn in Cleveland after it’s prior one bolted to Baltimore.  Mayfield, Landry, OBJ, and a salty D from a year ago might just be the ticket to playoffs.  The division isn’t bad either.  Cincinnati is weak.  Baltimore is down.  Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh, but beatable.  Could the Browns win two v the Bengals and split home and away with the Ravens and Steelers?  Sure.  That’s 4-2.   If you split the other ten 5-5, you finish 9-7.  The Jets, Broncos, 49ers, Dolphins, and Cardinals are opponents that could be five victories.  Ten wins aren’t out of the question.  Or, will they find a way to be the same old Browns?

Wimpy never ate so well.

 

 

The Buccaneers Are Leaking Oil

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The answer is, “a small gift given to a customer by a merchant at the time of a purchase.  Something given or obtained gratuitously or by way of good measure. Used as a sentence, “The waiter added a serving of bread pudding as a lagniappe to the meal.”  The question is, “what is lagniappe?”  Forgive us, for we seem to have gotten caught up in the Jeopardy game, with all of the hype surrounding it these days, as James Holthauer closes in on the all time money winning record.

Our small gift, given to you today could have been given to you yesterday as lagniappe nugget number 11.  But, like great bread pudding, we wanted to cook it low and slow to insure that all of the butter and rum sauce would be soaked in, and there for the taking today.  And it is.

What is it?  It’s the story of the Tampa Bay(TB) Buccaneers and the British Petroleum(BP) oil spill in 2010, of course.  Of course?  Well, not really “of course,” but perhaps “par for the course” as to how the franchise is led.  The Bucs filed a $19.5 million claim for in economic damages from the Deepwater Horizon Settlement Program, but the suit raised a red flag with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth District. The appellate court denied the claim last week. No word on if the red flag looked as obvious to the court as the one with the skull on it that TB flies.  No word on if the skull shows how brain dead this franchise really is either.

Perhaps the frivolous claim was a salary cap issue?  If the TB Buccaneers had won their Deepwater Horizon settlement program claim, they would have received close to enough money to cover quarterback Jameis Winston’s 2019 salary of $20 million.  Surely two wrong ideas, in this instance, could make a right?

Why would the Bucs, valued near 2 billion bucks, make any claim of damages for a spill that occurred more than 300 miles from TB, let alone a claim of $19.5 million?    The court’s eight-page (it took that many pages?) decision stated the spill didn’t hurt the inept franchise’s performance more than they have hurt themselves. It pointed to the team’s record of 10-6 after the spill in 2010.  This record was achieved just a year after finishing 3-13, proving that even during catastrophic ecological events a blind squirrel can still find a nut.

“The Bucs have not had a 10-win season since,” the decision stated.  Yes, it really did allude to how much oil this franchise annually leaks on its own.  Pure comedic gold was achieved in one simple sentence within the eight long pages.  Great jokes are rooted in honesty.

The courts set up the settlement program in such a way that companies did not have to show a direct connection between the spill and financial loss. And why not?  Over 100,000 businesses throughout the Gulf region filed claims. Some actually were damaged.   Many were prompted by law firms who encouraged companies to stake a claim.  And why not?  If everyone is getting theirs, you might as well get yours.  The team based its claim on the formula spelled out in the settlement agreement BP crafted with the courts. The formula is based on whether a claimant’s financial condition worsened after the spill.

BP agreed to the procedure to avoid litigation in countless trials.  BP clearly was worried that it’s leaking oil defense was as leaky as the Buccaneers’ defense is on a yearly basis.

Claimants had to show a post-spill revenue slowdown of 15 percent or greater during a three-month period between May and July of 2010, and a revenue uptick of 10 percent during the same three months in 2011.  The court said the Bucs failed to substantiate the claim, but not necessarily the integrity of same.  We aren’t exactly sure what that means.   But, we can assure the courts that, by making the claim in the first place the Bucs have no integrity to begin with.

Tampa Bay has lost 97 games in the last ten years.  That’s very nearly an average of 10 losses per year.  The Hail Mary that their lawyers threw in court fell incomplete as well.

Tampa Bay lost in court, and in the court of public opinion.  Again.  The oil spill was a terrible mess.  So, too, are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Pass the bread pudding please.

 

Quote the Raven “Speed Kills”

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The month ago NFL trade of eleven year veteran, Baltimore Raven Joe Flacco to the Denver Broncos became official yesterday as the new fiscal year of the NFL began.  There were several other trades and a bevy of free agents signing.  To say the pace of play was fast would be understating it all.

Lamar Jackson, the 2018 first round pick and late year starter for the Ravens, was the beneficiary of the trade as the deck was cleared for him to take the full-time starting quarterback position.  The Ravens’ brass hopes that he will be the franchise’s next, well, franchise quarterback.  To say the pace of LJ’s 2018 on field play was fast would be understating it as well.

However, to say his Mercedes-Benz pace was 105 mph on Tuesday would be exactly accurate.  Like a stop watch at the combine, Lamar provided video proof of his fast driving.  He decided to video the needle on 105 and post it on Instagram complete with the no seat belt dash-board indicator on as well as his tapping on the steering wheel to the selected tune of his choice.

On Wednesday the 22-year-old tweeted out an apology saying that “he had made a bad decision.”  We wonder if the bad decision was driving 105 mph, the unhinged seat belt, the phone recording while driving, or the world-wide web post of it all.

Some surely see this as a problem.  We see this as an opportunity for Lamar, his agent, and the Ravens however.  Commercial gain from endorsements, advertisements, or public service announcements can come from this.  Some awesome, and some not as awesome, possibilities follow.

  1. The Raven’s film Lamar getting in the car, buckling up, and driving exactly the posted speed.  Lamar looks into the close up of the camera and quote the  Raven “nevermore.”  A CLIO award awaits.
  2. A video of Lamar’s pure on field speed and elusiveness running in to the endzone for a touchdown fades to a dated video of his 105 mph dash.  The camera cuts to Lamar who states that “speed on the field and off the field kills.  I only speed on grass these days.”  This one is tricky due to the potential dual interpretation of the word “grass” however.
  3. Adidas has Lamar under contract.  They could film him running in his three stripe cleats and have him say “the only thing faster than me in my car is me in my adi kicks.”  Ok, ok, this one needs some work.  But, impossible is nothing.
  4. Mercedes-Benz could film him calmly walking out of the airport from his arrival gate spliced with OJ Simpson’s Hertz commercial running through the airport 30 years ago.  The tag line could be “why run and rent when you can Benz and speed?”  Ok, ok this one needs work too.  But, how about those rental choices from Hertz in 1978?  Fairmont, Mustang, or LTD anyone?
  5. Lamar could go rogue and video himself going 105 the next time he so chooses, and seat belt be damned again.  He could turn the smart phone on to himself and say to the average Joe, “don’t give me any Flaccover this!”  Ah, these kids these days.  Instant Instagram fortune awaits.

We’ll be back after these words from our fine sponsors.

 

 

Super Bowl Head Coach Trivia Time

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Friday part four of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  We offered our opinion on who the worst head coaches were to win a Super Bowl.  Gary Kubiak took home first place.  Unfortunately, first meant worst for the eight year Texan and two-year Bronco’s head coach.  After stepping away from the game in 2018 Kubiak will be back in 2019 as the OC in Minnesota.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We were going to continue to examine those very questions in part five of our series of our series.  But, today rather than examine the question “who is the best head coach to win a Super Bowl?”  we offer a fun trivia quiz about the quarterbacks and coaches in the big game.  The best coaches to ever coach in the big game heads your way tomorrow.   Enjoy the audible.  The answers are below Bill Belichick and yet another trophy hoist and to avoid the urge to peak.

  1.  Five coaches have coached in exactly four Super Bowls.  Three have lost all four.  Two of them lost all four with the same team.  Who were they?
  2. Another coach lost four but accomplished this with two teams.  Who was he and what teams did he coach?
  3. Only one coach appeared in four games and won the Vince Lombardi trophy in all four appearances.  Who is he?
  4. Bill Belichick will be coaching this Sunday for an amazing 9th time easily the most ever appearances and counting.  Who has the second most appearances?
  5. Only four coaches have won more than two Super Bowls.  Belichick is one.  Name the other three.
  6. Marv Levy, with four consecutive appearances leads that category.  Only one head coach has worked in three straight.  Who?
  7. (extra point) Twelve coaches have been to two big games.  All won at least once except one who went 0-2.  His losses were 10 years apart and he brought a different team to each.  Who?

 

 

The Answers

  1.  Marv Levy went 0-4 with the Bills in four consecutive years amazingly from 1991-4.  Bud Grant lost all with the Vikings in 1970,4,5,and 7.
  2. Dan Reeves lost three with the Broncos in 1987,8, and 1990.  He coached the Falcons in 1999 to a 34-19 loss to the Falcons.
  3. Chuck Noll led the Steel Curtain and Terry Bradshaw to four appearances and four wins in 1975,6,9, and 1980.
  4. Don Shula won two and lost four.  Joe Willie and Weeb beat his Colts in SB III.  He went on to five Dolphins appearances winning two and losing three.
  5. The previously mentioned Chuck Noll won four, sneaky Joe Gibbs won three, and the great Bill Walsh won three.
  6. If you guessed Bill Belichick we understand.  However, Don Shula lost SB VI to Tom Landry and the Cowboys, then won back to back in 1973 (the undefeated year) and 1974 over Bud Grant’s Vikings.
  7. John Fox and the Carolina Panthers lost to NE in 2004.  He took the Broncos to SB XLVIII ten years later and lost to Pete Carroll’s Seahawks  in a beat down 43-8.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yummy.  The holiday food and sweets are all around.  Gaining weight(more) unfortunately has never been so easy.  Another food group heats up around Christmas and the New Year as well.  The NFL treats us to some wonderful nuggets as the regular season barrels to the  finish.  Enjoy them one at a time below.  And when you are done, please pass the pecan pie.

  1. The NFL’s oldest head coach, Pete Carroll, is 67.  He’ll be three years older and still leading the Seahawks in 2021 as he agreed to a three-year contract extension yesterday.  This comes a day after his team secured a wild card playoff berth last evening.  Carroll’s Seahawks have made the playoffs for the seventh time in his nine years at the helm.
  2. The New Orleans Saints secured the NFC home field advantage throughout the playoffs in a well contested, entertaining scrap with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superdome.  Significant?  Very.  The Saints haven’t lost a playoff game in their Superdome home with Drew Brees executing what Sean Payton cooks up.  Ever.  In 2009, as the no. 1 seed they held serve at home, beat Indy in Miami, and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
  3. Pittsburgh fought valiantly for 60 minutes and came up just short.  They went from being the leader in their division to currently being on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  This weekend they have to beat Cincinnati and hope that either a) Cleveland beats Baltimore, or b) Indianapolis and Tennessee somehow play to a tie.  Pitt is a tough team with a very good coach.  It’s hard to believe that they may be home for good after the holidays.
  4. Raise your hand if you thought Cleveland might be playing in a meaningful game in late December.  The Browns are 7-7-1.  A win would give them their first winning season since 2007.  It would also possibly give Pitt postseason life.  And last but not least, it would give Gregg Williams a nice page or two to add to his PowerPoint presentation as he tries to get the word interim removed from his current title of interim head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
  5. The Houston Texans lost to Philadelphia 32-30.  They also lost their hold on the no. 2 AFC playoff seed and with it a first round bye as a byproduct.  They actually even lost a chance to clinch the AFC South Division as surging Indy lurks oh so closely.  But, rest assured the Texans won when they drafted DeShaun Watson.  His brilliance almost took the Eagles down in their nest.  Watson dazzled the hard to please Philly crowd with 29-40 passing for 339 yards and two touchdowns.  He ran into the end zone for two more.  How he amassed those lofty stats was more impressive than those lofty stats themselves.  That Mahomes is getting national run is elementary.  But, Houston’s dear Watson isn’t far behind.
  6.  The MNF Raiders’ game might have been the last one at the Oakland Coliseum.  Viva Las Vegas.  Speaking of Vegas every road underdog in the NFL either won straight up or covered the spread afforded them.  Betting the NFL from week to week is crazier than having money in the stock market right now.  Ouch, that hurt.  That game versus the Broncos also brought down the curtain on yet another MNF season of broadcasts.  The NFL wants all games this coming weekend to conclude by Sunday to level the playoff playing field.  If only that would bring down the curtain on Jason Whiten’s announcing career.  Ouch, that hurt.
  7.  Quick quiz.  In how many of the last 16 NFL seasons have the New England Patriots won ten or more regular season games?  If you said 16 that would be correct.  Impressive.  Of course playing the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills a total of six times a year helps.  Of course so does having Tom Brady.  The next closest is Indy (thanks Peyton Manning) with 11.
  8. The Vegas Raiders and the Mistake by the Lake Browns have only one ten win season each in those same 16 years.  The NFL structures their league to provide plenty of help to those that cannot help themselves.  We detailed those thoughts recently.  It’s hard to be that bad for that long in the NFL.  These two teams have a lot in common over that time.  They both have or had bad ownership, bad draft picks, bad cap management, and a revolving door at the quarterback position.
  9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t far ahead or behind depending on your viewpoint.  Sunday’s loss to America’s Team marked the seventh season in the last ten that the Bucs have lost ten or more. Jameis Winston’s rookie contract is up.  Will TB offer the available one year extension to it? This decision about one year has ramifications for many.  Perhaps a call to Nick Foles agent would help in the decision-making process.
  10.  Baltimore was once 4-5 six games ago.  Enter Lamar Jackson at QB.  The Ravens are 5-1 since.  The only loss in that span was in a very hostile Arrowhead Stadium.  Saturday night the Ravens traveled three time zones to the left coast and held the hot Chargers to a stone cold 10 points, winning by 12.  If you are looking for a dark horse, or a dark bird, to make a playoff run look no further than the Ravens.  They run the ball very well and defend the run very well.  That’s a winning January combination.

Is a scoop of homemade vanilla ice cream on top of the pecan pie a bit over the top?  Hmm.