The average gambler is always amazed at how close Vegas comes to getting betting lines so close to real outcomes. But, the reality is that they get them wrong as well.
The smart money, as they say, recognizes the miss before the game/season. The rest of us bet either side, mostly on emotion, and Vegas gets the juice. Lines are made to evoke that collective response. Vegas always gets the juice.
This brings us to season-long NFL wins bets. We’ll have three (maybe four) for you in the next month or so. Today is our first.
The New Orleans Saints’ win total in Vegas is 8. It was 7 1/2 when it rolled out in March.
In the last five seasons only the Kansas City Chiefs have more wins than NOLA by a count of 55-53.
So, what’s changed? Drew Brees (in 2021) and Sean Payton(now) are no longer. Those are two BIG changes.
But another thing changed last year. The NFL went to a 17-game schedule. Therefore, Vegas thinks that the Saints will have a losing record in 2022.
BBR feels strongly otherwise. Below are a litany of reasons.
- Dennis Allen is now head coach. He’ll call the in-game defense just as he has for the last six seasons. He’s a steady and heady guy.
- And the defense was very good the last two seasons. We expect it to be even better. Two first-round picks (Payton Turner and Marcus Davenport) missed all or a big portion of the season.
- The defense has a chance to be elite this year. Cam Jordan and DeMario Davis are true leaders. The secondary might be the deepest in the NFL. It added Tyrann Matthieu as well.
- Jameus Winston must 1) stay healthy, and 2) have a strong season as one expects of a former first pick of the first-round guy. The constant change of personnel and coordinators in his NFL life combined with his immaturity has held him back.
He’s saying and doing all of the right things this offseason. He was 5-2 as the starter last year with only two picks before the season-ending injury. - He’ll have weapons. The team has positively transformed its weak wide receiver group. In this one off-season, Marquez Calloway drops from the #1 wideout, which he never was, to a #4 which he’s more than capable of succeeding as. Michael Thomas returns. They drafted Chris Olave in round one. They signed FA Javis Landry for the slot. A weakness became a strength.
- Laugh all that you want, but N.O. signed a very capable backup should Winston face plant. Andy Dalton became a punching bag in Cincinnati. But, he’s a nine-year starter and an 11-year veteran in this league for a reason. Quick, name two legit weapons he had while a Bengal. He’s thrown for over 35k NFL yards. If he wasn’t good he’d be long gone by now.
- The Saints’ special teams rank in the top 10 in most categories. They put an emphasis on it. Will Lutz is back to health and kicking this fall. The team missed seven extra points and eight field goals in his absence.
- The law of averages says that this team will be healthier than last year. Four QB’s started and 66 players started one game or more in all. Sixty-six! 66! The injury bug landed in The Crescent City and stayed there all of the fall. Covid visited too.
- The division should provide 4 wins at a minimum. Stated simply, Carolina is weak. Atlanta is awful. And the Saints have the Buccaneers’ number. They’ve beaten them in the last four regular-season (Brady-led) games.
- Take those four and you need five more to cash. So, can the black and gold go 5-6 against the rest of the schedule? We think so and then some. Watch for Alvin Kamara’s pending suspension though. Courts move slowly. He might not be suspended until late in the season, or even 2023. When announced, how many and when the games are played is key.
Take the Saints over eight wins. We see their record as 10-7 or better at the finish line.