PAC12

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

For the third time in ten weeks Abby had to pay the man.  When you lose 6 bones ($66) and win 4 ($40) you slowly run out of money unless you are the US government.

Luckily for Abby the year-to-date totals still look good, so she doesn’t need a paw out (aka handout).   Ten weeks deep her won-loss record is 37-27, the bones won are 55 v 38 surrendered.

We must give a special shoutout on her hunch bet.  She took  Army v Air Force under the thirty-seven points total.  The game went to overtime and the under still won the day.  The hunch stands tall like the soldiers that competed at 8-1 for the season.

  1. West Virginia at Kansas St -6 –K St at home is a significantly better team than on the road.  WV on the road is a significantly worse team than at home.  One bone.
  2.  Michigan at Penn St under 49 — This feels like a game that a late field goal wins it somewhere in the 20-17 range.  Woody Hayes didn’t like either of these teams but would like the three yards and a pile of dirt scrum.  One bone.
  3.  Notre Dame -5 1/2 at Virginia —  ND has had some closes finishes.  This one covers late, however.  Two bones.
  4. Oklahoma at Baylor under 62 — Abby’ll bite. This one almost seems too good.   Aranda will have them ready to defend the Okla O.   One bone.
  5.  NC State at Wake Forest -1 — Will Wake be hungover from the sting of the Tarheel come from behind victory? Maybe for a series or two.  That O can go.  One bone.
  6. Stanford + 12 at Oregon St —  Abby’ll bite again.  This line seems so out of whack that normally she would take the zig.  But 12 points and the Cardinal seems too juicy.  One bone.
  7. Mississippi St at Auburn -5 — Auburn went to College Station and got stuffed.  We smell an angry rebound and a close cover.  One bone.
  8. Texas A&M -2 at Ole Miss — A road favorite after a big home win in the SEC is dangerous.  A&M is a better team in the trenches than Ole Miss and the Black Bears (formerly Rebels) are banged up.  Two bones.

Arkansas travels to Death Valley to face LSU.  We’re sending one of our staff members to cover the game.  LSU is going to play two QB’s.  Arkansas likes to run the ball.  The total at 59 looks way too high.  The under seems like a sure bet.  Abby will take the over on another crazy hunch.

Woof!

Ten Piece Nuggets-Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In cold enough way down yonder to consider a big ole pot of gumbo for dinner this evening.

Gumbo is a whole bunch of “stuff” blended smartly over a long cooking time.  As are the sports nuggets below.

If you’re a health nut what’s better than 10 Piece Nuggets early and gumbo late?  No need to answer that one.

  1.  But, if you were in an NFL survivor pool going into yesterday are you still in one coming out?  A scant few early season upsets prior turned into a blood bath yesterday.  Buffalo scores only six and loses 9-6 at Jacksonville.  Dallas got run out of Jerry’s playground by Denver.  Atlanta beats New Orleans who last week tattooed Tampa Bay.  The New York Giants took it to the Raiders.
  2. Last night Tennessee also took it to the LA Rams.  Vegas had the Rams as the favorite.  No Derrick Henry, no problem for the now 6-2 Titans.  Could the Titans secure home field throughout the AFC playoffs with Indy, Jacksonville, and Houston in their division? You bet.  They play physical ball for sixty minutes every sixty minutes that they suit up.
  3. The New England Patriots are now 5-4 after three straight wins.  They played Tampa Bay and Dallas tough in close losses.  Is their best football ahead of them?  It needs to be as they face their division-leading 5-3 Buffalo Bills twice in the coming weeks.   If they manage to get a leg up on Buffalo they close out the seventeen week schedule with the woeful Dolphins and hapless Jets.  It’s never too early to look ahead, is it?  Two words.  Bill Belichick.
  4. Odell Beckham Jr. is looking ahead as well. He will be a free agent this time tomorrow now that the Browns said enough already.  He’ll take his “talents” and his cancerous attitude to some team hopeful of the good outweighing the bad.  It will soon be marriage number three for OBJ and some desperate team.  Ditto the Raiders as DeSean Jackson is apparently headed there.  There is a reason why some talented players play for more teams than you would think they should.  Jackson started his career with the Eagles, then theRedskins, Bucs, Eagles again, and Rams.  The next stop is Vegas baby.  What could go wrong there?
  5. The Browns might have added by subtracting.  With OBJ gone they lambasted the Bengals 41-16 in Cinncinatti.  Their defense is good enough to make a run.  Will Baker Mayfield and the offense find a new identity?  Yesterday was a great start. He still held a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3 in the third quarter as the Browns became the first team since 2012 with three touchdown plays of 60 yards or more.
  6.  It’s a different league, but maybe it’s the same result.  In the NBA the Philadelphia 76ers, who are dealing with a star sidelined for a different reason, have risen to the top of the East as Ben Simmons continues to be away from the team.  Ben is troubled.  The 76ers suddenly are not.  We’ll leave it at that for now.
  7.  In MLB, fresh off of their World Series loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Houston Astros offered Carlos Correa a 5-year deal valued at about 32 million a year.  Sounds like good work if you can get it.  But, for Team Correa, it will be adios amigo as some team (Yankees?) will nearly double the years which effectively doubles the money guarantee.
  8. Correa is one of many, many free agents available as the Hot Stove League kicks in gear.  At the shortstop position alone in addition to Correa stands Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Cory Seager on the newly unemployed line.  Assuming baseball doesn’t lock out the players in a labor dispute, the comings and goings will be quite interesting this offseason.
  9. One way to extend your shelf life as an NCAA head football coach is to blame your assistants when your team struggles.  After three consecutive losses, Florida’s Dan Mullen fired DC Todd Grantham and offensive line coach John Hevesy on Sunday.  South Carolina embarrassed them Saturday.  The Washington Huskies fired OC John Donovan.  The decision comes a day after a loss that drops the Huskies to 4-5 overall and 3-3 in the Pac-12.  And, Oregon State DC Tim Tibesar was fired yesterday as the Beavers defense sunk to the bottom of the PAC 12 after a decent start.  Make them the bad guys even though you hired them in the first place.  It buys you a year and quiets the opposition some on the recruiting trail.
  10.  Georgia is #1 and second place isn’t close as the jockeying for the four playoff spots hits the far turn.  A very valid argument could be made for about eight teams to fill the final three spots as of now.  But, “that’s why they play the games,” someone once famously said. It’ll sort itself out.  It always does.  One thing is certain though.  Alabama is #2 because of its history, not its play on the field this year.  Still, they control their chances as they will face Auburn in the Iron Bowl in two weeks.  If they pass that test, Georgia looms in the SEC Championship in the Georgia Dome.  The committee wouldn’t still put them in the top four with two losses, would they?

Pass the rice.

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you’ve never been to the Flora-Bama bar, you should put it on your bucket list.  No really.  Bama has the best team football team in the world and 1/2 of the best bar in the world as well.  It sits 1/2 in Florida and 1/2 in Bama, right on the state line, fifty yards from the Gulf of Mexico.

  1. Do you think that Nick Saban coach of the best football team in the world stewed for the last 12 months that his former OC, and chief needler,  Lane Kiffen put 617 yards of offense on Saban’s pride and joy defense last year?  Saban gets mad and gets even.
  2. Speaking of defense, Georgia hasn’t allowed a single point in its last eight quarters of SEC play, pitching two shutouts in a row over hapless Vanderbilt and upstart Arkansas.  Four Georgia running backs rushed for 87, 68, 57, and 48 yards.  Deep bench.  Oh, and the O scored 99 points total in those same two games.
  3. Should we pronounce the winner of the SEC Championship game the national champ?  Probably.  Raise your hand if you don’t think the game will pit Bama versus Georgia? Saban’s win makes him 23 and 0 against his former assistant coaches.  Could Kirby Smart outsmart Saban in December to make it 23-1?  Are we getting ahead of ourselves?   Saban would say yes.  We’d say no.
  4.  But, the BIG 10 asks, “what about us?”  Iowa owned Maryland(51-14) on Friday and Penn St owned Indiana(24-0) on Saturday to check in at numbers 3 and 4 respectively in the AP top 25.  They’ll meet Saturday on the field near the cornfields in Iowa City.
  5.  That matchup will feature two top 5 BIG 10 teams for the first time since 1997 that one of them isn’t named THE Ohio St University.  Both Iowa and Penn State have beaten two ranked opponents already.  So this game is going to have a significant impact one way or another as one of them makes it three.
  6.  But, the Cincinnati Bearcats ask, “what about us?”  Cincy checks in proudly at #6 after going into South Bend and bouncing the Irish 24-13.  Cincinnati’s defense isn’t Georgia ferocious, but it’s mighty strong.  The Bearcats showed against ND they can perform on big stages. They have only one marginally ranked (24 SMU) left on their schedule.  Is that good or bad for them?  It depends on how the others ahead and slightly behind them play out.
  7.  And, 5-0 Oklahoma wants to make their way into the big boy talk.  At seven they’ll get a chance to pad their resume, as the winners of 13 straight are headed to Dallas to face # 21 Texas in the Red River Shootout next Saturday.
  8. Who is still undefeated besides all of the above-mentioned?  If you guessed Michigan, Michigan St., Coastal Carolina, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Oklahoma St., SMU, and San Diego St. you’re watching way too much football on Saturdays.
  9. That thud you heard late Saturday night was previously undefeated and now # 8 Oregon laying a big duck egg v Stanford. Arizona St is the only other PAC12 ranked team.  Oregon’s body of work includes a fine win at THE, so they’ll stay in the conversation for now.  But the PAC 12 playoff conversation is hanging on by a thread until something or things really shake up the standings.
  10. Although it could have been a reverberation from College Station where preseason #7 Texas A&M dropped out of the top 25 with a certified stinker of a loss to Mississippi St after losing to Arkansas the week before.  Jimbo’s contract was extended and guaranteed before the season started. The extension will increase his salary to $9 million on Jan. 1 and $9.15 million on Jan. 1, 2023.  After that, his salary will increase by $100,000 each year through 2031.  That’s good work if you can get it.  A&M has opened as an 18 point dog to Bama this week.
  11. (Lagniappe) Iowa is favored by 3 over Penn St., as is Michigan at Nebraska, as is Oklahoma v Texas in The Red River Shootout that you can’t call The Red River Shootout anymore.

Out.

Opt Out or Cop Out?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Two Mondays ago the following was the lede paragraph from an ESPN article. “South Carolina’s top two cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Israel Mukuamu, have opted out less than 48 hours after coach Will Muschamp was fired this past weekend.”  South Carolina fell to 2-5 after a loss to Ole Miss two days prior.

Yesterday it became official that Terrace Marshall, by far LSU’s best receiver this year and a significant part of last year’s National Championship team, opted out right after LSU played a sloppy offensive game on a sloppy Kyle Field.  The loss to A&M brought the LSU season record to a sloppy 3-4, a far cry from last year’s excellence.

The three players cited above are far from the only college players who have opted out in the year 2020 of our COVID-19 pandemic.  Some hung up the cleats of their choice prior to the first kickoff of their season. Some after minor injuries.   Some conferences, ahem, the PAC-12, wanted to hang up their season before it started as well.  But, we digress.

Merriam-Webster defines opt-out as a transitive verb meaning “to choose not to participate in something.”

The NCAA took numerous steps this fall to attempt to play fall sports.  One step was that  “all student-athletes must be allowed to opt-out of participation due to concerns about contracting COVID-19. If a college athlete chooses to opt-out, that individual’s athletic scholarship commitment must be honored by the college or university.”

Further, that student-athlete would not lose any eligibility if they chose to opt-out.  In other words a sophomore on the field in 2020 who became a junior in 2021 in the classroom would still be considered a sophomore in 2021on the field.

The original idea’s intent was to give each individual a path to choosing what they deemed appropriate and safe for themselves without any loss of opportunity as a result.  And, that sounds fine in, ready for it, unprecedented times.

What doesn’t sound fine to many is how the one-year “loophole” is being used by the players relative to their responsibility to their team, coaches, and peers.  None of the three mentioned above are concerned about COVID-19 suddenly.  They are concerned about their individual future.

The two from South Carolina “quit” on their team and teammates 48 hours after the administration “quit” on the coach that recruited them.  It’s time to get ready for the draft they said.

The one from LSU gave an impassioned speech to the entire team sans coaches present two weeks ago about finishing strong as a team.  So much for that.  Is he suddenly afraid of the disease?  No.  Was he suddenly afraid of injury? No. He played on a rain-drenched, slippery College Station field Saturday night all the while knowing that Sunday was time to tweet that he was opting out.

“It’s time to get ready for the draft,” they say.  “Weren’t you doing that in so many ways while playing, lifting, etc. within the framework of the team?”  Fans ask.

“It’s an individual decision,” some say.  “It’s putting the individual before the team,” the retort bellows.

“It’s a sign of the times,” some say.  They go on, “this generation is so soft.”

“Doesn’t college prepare you to go out into the real world, get a job, and make money?”  “If they feel ready for the draft, so be it.”  This sounds selfish (bad) and capitalistic (good till Bernie takes over) all at the same time.

Only a few months back, NCAA players across the fruited plain were organizing.  They demanded to get paid for playing at the college level.  Not yet it seems.

Is this a one-time pandemic opt-out, some call it a cop-out, only one time?  Or is it a natural progression beyond the players choosing to skip bowl games that they deemed “meaningless?”

Is this yet another step towards a watered-down college football game going forward?

Soon might college football remind you of college basketball?

If you support the team you won’t like it.  If you support the player you will.

There is no “I” in the word “team,” especially if “I” opts out.

Truer words…………..

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sometimes Vegas giveth.  Sometimes Vegas taketh.

Last week Sin City took just a bit from Abby.

Her season-long w/l is now 19-17-1.  The most important bones are a fine 33-23 in her favor.  And, the beleaguered hunch bet is now 2-4 after it hit paydirt with a Florida cover.

Lots of games ran afoul of the pandemic this week.  The pickings are slim, but Abby dug up a few for you to gnaw on.

  1.  Miami at Va Tech -2 – This is the fourth line in the last two weeks that looks so wrong that she thinks it’s right.  One bone.
  2. Notre Dame at Boston College +14 1/2 – This is the ultimate “let down after a big win, go on the road, win but don’t cover” bet.  Abby tried this after Texas A&M beat Florida last month.  We found out that A&M wants to play hard all year.  It did not cash, but this one will.   One bone.
  3. Arkansas +17 1/2 at Florida and under 60 – Florida might still be scoring this morning on that Georgia D.  But, Abby smells a let down this week.  Arkansas +17 1/2 smells good, and under 60 smells even better.  One bone to win three bones.
  4. Army at Tulane over 47.   Both teams can score but in very different ways.  Can Tulane defend against the Army ground attack? No. Can the Army defend against the Tulane air game?  No.  Two bones.
  5. Baylor -1 at Texas Tech – We think that this is a good spot for team Aranda to put on its best defensive showing this year.  One bone.
  6. Wisconsin at Michigan + 4 and 1/2 – Jim Harbaugh said after the latest Michigan disappointment that he thought his team was really close.  Really close to what Abby inquires?  That said, this is a classic “overlooked, they are done, they will quit, no they won’t” spot.  One bone.

NBC just called Arizona for the next President of the United States.  It only took 11 days.  Abby is calling Arizona +14 1/2 over USC and Arizona St – 3 1/2 over California right after the polls close Saturday.  It’s a one bone to win three bones vote to get the hunch over the hump.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 7

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The SEC, ACC, and BIG 12 football schedules are half done, the BIG 10 is in week two, while the PAC-12 is just getting started.  This reminds us of the state by state vote count, but we digress.

Abby, however, remains very focused.  Week six was another winner for her.  That brings the season-long total to 17 wins, 13 losses, and one tie.   She’s brought home a sterling 29 bones while leaving 18 behind.  Her hunch bet tried to shoot the moon that she normally howls at with a three-team parlay that came up one team short.  Her hunch remains out to lunch at 1-4.

  1.  Miami Fla at North Carolina St +10 1/2–  They’re still counting in NC. When it’s all done Miami wins, NC St covers, and Trump sues.  Two bones.
  2.  Pitt at Florida St -2 – They’re still counting in Pittsburgh, PA.  They’re done in Florida.  Florida St is done as a football team too, but rises from the ashes this weekend.  Is the wrong team favored here?  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  3. Washington St at Oregon St. -2 –  It’ll take sixty minutes to declare Oregon St. a winner in this game.  In politics, it took sixty seconds after the polls closed for Washington and Oregon to go into the Biden win column.  Is the wrong team favored here as well?  One bone.
  4. Michigan St at Iowa -6 – They got tired in Michigan and quit at 10:30 pm counting ballots on Tuesday night.  Iowa will make Mich St. quit in the fourth quarter of this one.  Two bones.
  5.  Texas A&M at South Carolina + 10 1/2 and Tennessee -2 at Arkansas –  The Donald carried all of the SEC states except Georgia which is pending.  This is our SEC two-team parlay special.  If Abby loses this one (or two) she’ll demand a recount.  One bone to win three bones.
  6.  Florida v Georgia under 53 and 1/2 –  There is nothing pending about Georgia’s D.  It’s good.  It’ll slow down Florida’s O a bit.  There’s nothing pending about Georgia’s O.  It’s average at best.  Florida’s D is as well, but it will be good enough to get a stop or two.  Two bones.

Abby’s hunch bet nearly got put in the dog house again this week.  She likes UGA the dog so much (as a friend of course), but she likes the Florida Gators + 3 1/2 as a live dog this weekend.

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 1

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to believe but Abby begins year three already of her doggone good picking prowess for BBR this AM.  And she’s been doggone good indeed.  Take a look at last year’s final picks and overall standing here.  Bow wow wow!

This year’s picks start a month later than usual.  Thanks a lot COVID-19.  Break a leg why don’t cha already?

As a refresher, consider each bone equal to an $11 wager to win $10.  Damn bookies and their juice, Abby growls.

  1. Central Florida v East Carolina under 77 1/2- UCF is good again this year.  East Carolina is bad again this year.  Seventy-seven and one-half points is a lot in any year.  UCF wins handily, but the total is spared.  One bone.
  2. Tenessee -3 at South Carolina- Who gave up the fewest points in the last six games of their schedule last year in the SEC?  Ala who?  LS who?  It was the Volunteers.  Jeremy Pruitt has something started in Knoxville.  Plus, Abby is a sucker for a blue tick hound.   Three bones.
  3. Louisville +3 at Pittsburgh-  Louisville ran into an inspired Miami team last week.  Pitt is good, but never that good in the ACC.  This is a nice bounce-back spot for the Cardinals.  Two bones.
  4. Kentucky +8.5 at Auburn- Kentucky is to the SEC as Pitt is to the ACC.  Is this year different?  Stoops’ team is more talented than any since he arrived in Lex.  Auburn wins, but it will be closer than the experts think as Lee Corso says.  One bone.
  5. Florida -14 at Ole Miss- Florida returns a lot of talent and a solid to darn good QB in Kyle Trask.  Abby loves home dogs but thinks that the Rebels/Black Bears are just outmanned here.   One bone.

LSU hosts Miss St. and new head coach Mike Leach and his Air Raid O Saturday.  LSU lost plenty of offensive weapons.  But, LSU has plenty of new offensive weapons.   Leach loves to throw the ball.  The o/u line is 57.5.  It looks low.   But it’s game one for both.  Expect LSU to run the ball a bit more than last year.  We’ll zig when others zag here.  Take under 57.5.

There you have it-four roadies and an under and a hunch on another under to start the year.

Win or lose, at least it’s a start.  Are you listening PAC 12?

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week one has come and gone.  We think it’s always a risk to extrapolate from one game how a team will perform over the year.  But, we are in the risk business.  So, way we go.

  1.  The new AP Top 25 Poll is out.  Clemson and Alabama both dismantled their big underdog opponents.  Clemson received 54 of 62 first place votes.  Alabama scooped up the other eight.  Until further notice they are a clear one and two.
  2.  The rest of the top ten remained very much the same as well.  Underdogs mostly were so for a reason facing the big boys.
  3. Oregon could have beat Auburn but did not.  It was a chance for a PAC 12 team to send an early signal to the US that the conference belongs in the conversation later in the year.   There is plenty of football left but chances like this don’t come along to often once conference play starts.
  4.  The PAC 12 wasn’t done underwhelming though.  Friday night Cincinnati bounced UCLA.  UCLA looked uninspired and soft as Charmin on defense.   Chip Kelly hasn’t done much to regain his lofty status when he departed Oregon for the NFL.
  5. Arizona lost to Hawaii.  Anytime a Power 5 team loses to a non Power 5 eyebrows are raised.  There are plenty of raised eyebrows in Tuscon.   When Swag Kevin Sumlin arrived last year more was expected.   Sumlin’s teams don’t play defense.  Arizona surrendered 45 points, 593 yards in total, with 434 coming via the air.
  6.  PAC 12 Utah looked good handling BYU.  They are one left coast team that plays some D.  Washington might be another.  They worked over Eastern Washington 45-14.  Utah and Washington check in at 12 and 13 in the poll, so there is still time and hope for one or two conference members to emerge as legit national contenders.  It’s the rest of their conference that isn’t helping.
  7.  The race to the bottom of the SEC West is on.  Ole Miss bowed to non Power 5 but good Memphis.  Arkansas struggled at home to beat Portland State 20-13.  They square up Saturday.  The loser has a leg up (or is it down) on the race to the bottom.
  8.  But they weren’t the biggest SEC disappointments.  Nope, and it’s not even close.  The honeymoon is over for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt after Saturday’s 38-30 loss to Georgia State.  Pruitt burned up all the good will he built in 2018 with upset victories over Auburn and Kentucky.  Some Saban proteges like Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart have thrived.  Some like Derek Dooley and Jim McElwain have not.  Pruitt sits in between for now as he just gets year two started.  But in the highly paid SEC coaching business it’s win or else.
  9.  Florida St. and Miami didn’t help the ACC argument.  At least they took on good to real good opponents in week one, so we”ll watch them from here.  Florida St. gave up 38 at home to Boise St.  Miami surrendered 10 sacks to an aggressive Florida defense in a sloppily played game that Florida held on to win.  There is Clemson in the ACC, and there are all others.  If you wanted to bet over the season win total for Clemson, the line was 11 and 1/2 games.  So you had to think they would run the regular season table.  In the next two weeks they host Texas A&M and travel to #21 Syracuse.  If they are 3-0 after that, you can  pay windmake plans to head to the pay window early cause the schedule won’t have on team on it (home or away) that isn’t the underdog by 15 or more.
  10. A&M is getting 17 and 1/2 in that game.  Bama is favored by 55 over New Mexico St.  55.  It’s rare that you see a line that high.  Usually Vegas will just take the game off of the board.  The crew from ESPN head to Austin for College Gameday.  LSU heads there as a 5.5 favorite for now.  The line has moved 3 points in ten days.   It’s early but give us A&M and LSU.  We’ll skip the Bama game like Vegas should have.

We wait forever for the season.  It’s here.  Enjoy.