In baseball, managers face the decision late in a game of when to pull pitchers and replace them with relievers.  One of three outcomes are possible.  If the starter and reliever get by unscathed the manager has succeeded.  If he waits too long and the starter falters he gets seconded guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have gone with the reliever.”   If he pulls the starter before any real damage is done, but the reliever gets lit up he gets second guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have stayed with the starter.”  None of the three outcomes are predictable to any certainty.

Similarly, in football, a head coach decides how to attack late in the game as well.  If you can score to go ahead, the “how” and “when” to do so can determine the final score.  In yesterday’s NFC Championship Game, Sean Payton faced this very dilemma.

If you live under a rock and/or don’t recall the moment, let’s reset the big stage under the bright lights.  The N.O. Saints had a first and 10 on the LA Rams 13 yard line.  The play that got them there was whistled dead with 1:58 to go in the fourth quarter.   That’s a TV timeout for the two-minute warning.  The score stood even at 20-20.  A very coveted berth in Super Bowl LIII was there for the taking.  The Rams had two timeouts remaining.

So, what is the surest outcome to gain that berth?  The surest would be to score on the game’s final play thereby eliminating any chance of comeback by the Rams by preventing them from touching the ball again.

But, with two timeouts and 1:58 left the only way to hold the ball and score on the aforementioned final play would require a first down.  Why?  It’s because the Rams would burn their timeouts immediately after first and second down assuming the Saints didn’t stop the clock themselves. Then, on third down, the clock would run till either a play on fourth down was run or the Saints called a timeout themselves.

Assume timeout number one at 1:53 and timeout number two at 1:48.  Third down would consume another five seconds to 1:43.  The 40 second clock could run down to one second, then the Saints would call a timeout.  That would leave 1:04 remaining.  A field goal could take four seconds and that would have left exactly one minute and no timeouts for the Rams.  This would give the Saints the lead by three, but not assure victory.  If they scored a touchdown on third down about 1:43 would remain.  This would give the Saints the lead by six(pending the point after) but more time for the Rams who would now need a touchdown to tie.

All of the above screams loudly again that the only sure way to win is to score on the final play and to do so would require a first down.

So, why did the Saints pass on first down in this scenario?  Payton gave Drew Brees the option to check into the quick slant to Michael Thomas and out of the run play called if the Rams showed blitz.  The Rams went to cover zero (no safeties, man on man, and all other defenders roaring to the ball carrier) run blitz.  Brees to Thomas this year had an 80% plus completion to target rate.  That’s almost as sure as a handoff to run clock.  But against cover zero it had a much better chance to gain yards than a run.  Remember, a first down almost assuredly wins the game.

Brees, shockingly, threw poorly and the ball landed at Thomas’ feet.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  There is no right answer to the play call because no outcome on first down unto itself determines the game.  It only tilts the odds from a bit to considerable.  If Thomas catches it and scores it’s considerably in the Saints favor.  An incomplete saves a timeout for the Rams, but little else.

Second down brought a predictable run and a timeout.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  If you wanted a run on first down you must have wanted a run on second down for the same reason as well.  Timeout Rams.

Third down and ten is now staring you in the face.  The run blitz on first down and the blow up of the second down run would have landed them in the same down and distance.  The difference was one saved timeout to this point for the Rams.  If you fail to get a first down now, a field goal hangs in the balance.  Would you have called a run here?  If so the Rams burn timeout number two and you kick.  That would have left them nearly 1:40 on the clock and no timeouts.  In the NFL with a kicker who was drilling warmup kicks from 65 yards(trust us on that one) 100 seconds is a long, long time.

Payton called a pass play.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  With the ball in the air a few outcomes were possible. A first down would have been the best.  A touchdown would have been super.  An incomplete pass would save a Ram’s timeout.  An interception was remote given the route, coverage, and ball placement.  Last but certainly not least, a pass interference penalty would have also given you a first down.  That’s the best outcome available and a sure chip shot field goal win would follow.

Payton, if asked, most assuredly would tell you that he played to win, not to not lose.  The word “conservative” is not in his dictionary.

Payton made the call.   The referee did not.

The field goal was good.  However, from that moment till overtime ended in the sudden death of the Saints, the Rams were better.

Remember the baseball manager?