Sports

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part VII

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby has spent the last five days licking her wounds from last Saturday.  She also has barked incessantly about two half point bad beats that could have flipped the juice in her favor and sent her to the pay window.  But, bottom line, as Jim Mora once infamously ranted, “we couldn’t do diddly poo!”

Abby’s 3-5 win/loss week took her down to 13-15 against the spread this season.  In the more important bones wagered she has still buried more than she has given, 37 of 73.  And, she recommends that you start paying close attention to her hunch bets.  Vegas is.  Her hunch bet is now a gaudy 5 up and 1 down.

Out of the dog house and into the moola she goes.  This week’s wagers are just below.

Indiana -2 v Maryland -The dumpster fire that is Terrapin football and the entire AD office takes flight to the heartland for an early kickoff.  Anywhere is better for them than College Park, MD.  Indiana at home is better than Indiana on the road.  Two bones.

UCLA +13.5 at Arizona St. -Have the Sun Devils played well enough to be favored by two touchdowns against any PAC 12 team?  The convincing win over Utah was quite nice, but……. Meanwhile, UCLA has lost two in a row while Ariz St. has won two in a row.  Abby loves the spot.  Two weeks ago, in the conference turned upside down, all dogs won straight up on Saturday.  Abby expects more left coast madness.   The Sun Devils should certainly win, but……….  Three bones.

Tennessee +5.5 v Kentucky -Abby loves home dogs.   Abby really loves home dogs playing a team that got pummeled by a Ga Bulldog a week ago.

Smokey loves the checkerboard endzone.

Does Kentucky get up off of the floor and play for 60 minutes?  Or, did last week take the fight out of the Wildcats?  Abby likes the team with the blue tick hound in this one.   Three bones.

Ohio State -3.5 @ Michigan St -THE Ohio State U. is looking for a place to lie down it seems.  However, THE has only one loss and is much maligned for their season to date performance.  Expect this to be back and forth for 50 minutes but THE covers late.  They are going to lose to a team from Michigan soon, but Abby thinks it’s not this week.  Two bones.

Two SEC teams are big 13.5 point underdogs this week.  The Auburn Tigers(+13.5) travel to Georgia while Arkansas(+13.5) host the bruised Tigers of LSU.  Abby is buying seven points for Georgia to get the line down to -6.5.  She is putting them in a two team tease with Arkansas bought up to +20.5   It’s essentially a parlay of sorts that pays even money.  Combine Georgia -6.5 with Arkansas +20.5.   Two bones.

Ole Miss and their high-powered pass offense whistle stops in College Station.  On a hunch Abby is barking about under 66 and 1/2.  She likes to zig when others zag you know.   There must be something about A&M’s Reveille and whistles that makes this game an itch that Abby must scratch.

The college football regular season is growing short.  Enjoy the games.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

 

It’s Better to Take and Not Give!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Analytics are woven into the makeup and strategy of major team sports today much more than ever before.  It roots are in baseball way back when and it was designed to give the fledgling hobby of fantasy baseball a more cerebral look at who you were drafting and why.  It was called sabermetrics originally.  The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research, founded in 1971. The term sabermetrics was coined by Bill James, who is one of its pioneers and is often considered its most prominent advocate and public face.

From that seed of a start has grown a forest of stats, now called “analytics,”  covering baseball, football, basketball, hockey, as well as several other sports.   Ivy League savants are employed in many sports franchise front offices coast to coast and even across the pond where they play futbol, not football.

The bbr staff was working well into the evening last week and discussing these new metrics and their merits as well as their shortcomings.   In the background on our fat Samsung was a meaningless Tuesday night NCAA football game.  Buffalo and Miami, OH were trading touchdowns at a rapid pace.  The Bulls outlasted the Redhawks 52-41.  Bonus points to you if you know which team goes with which nickname.

One of the many team stats shown along the way was turnovers.  When shown the announcer referred to them as takeaways.  This prompted some research and debate among us.  Our research turned to the NFL.  Fansided.com. published an article that shows results from 2010-2014 that, while a bit dated, shows irrefutable evidence as to how critical winning the turnover battle really is.  An excerpted paragraph follows.

During that five-year span teams that finished in the top ten in turnover differential finished 521-278-1. That’s a winning percentage of 65.2 percent and equates to about 10.4 wins per season. On the other end of the spectrum, the teams that finished in the bottom ten in turnover differential finished 287-512-1. That’s a winning percentage of about 35.9 percent and equates to about 5.7 wins per season.

And just below from Boydsbets.com you can see what happens per game when you win the turnover battle by 1 through 4 or more turnovers covering all games since 2005.   It shows both straight up(SU) winning and how the stat affects betting against the spread (ATS).

TO Differential SU SU % ATS ATS %
+1 823-376-4 68.6% 801-366-36 68.6%
+2 655-142 82.2% 632-149-16 80.9%
+3 344-33-1 91.2% 330-41-7 88.9%
+4 or more 272-8 97.1% 266-13-1 95.3%
TOTAL (+1 or better) 2094-559-5 78.9% 2029-569-60 78.1%

Suffice it to say that if you hold onto the ball a bit better than your opponent you win.  If you hold on to it significantly better you almost always win.

But, we wonder.  We wonder in this day of advanced analytics if there is a deeper dive still to be taken.  Remember the announcer called a turnover a takeaway as if they were one.  We wonder if there really are two measurements that better depict how you got the ball from your opponent.

Aren’t there turnovers and takeaways?  A turnover could be defined as the offense inflicting damage upon itself.  If for example the QB overthrew, without pressure, a receiver by 5 yards into the waiting arms of the deep safety isn’t that more giving than taking?  If a running back is running free and clear and coughs it up on his own isn’t that more giving than taking?  What if you were DeSean Jackson?  He made a habit of giving not taking.

Conversely, aggressive and smart defenses create turnovers, or as we prefer, takeaways.  If you blind side the QB and he loses control prior to throwing it, it’s a takeaway.  If a cornerback  jumps an out route its taken, not given.

We readily admit that there is grey area in between the clear examples above.  However, there are grey areas in many judgement calls in sports.  An umpire uses his eyes about 250 times a game to decide in his judgement if a thrown baseball is a ball or a strike.   Surely we can split hairs on whether the D taketh or the O giveth.

How you lose possession speaks to how you protect the ball and how the D wants the ball.  We think bad teams give it away and good teams take it away.  We think that great teams don’t give it away on O, but take it away on D.  From the results shown above the most important stat battle that you must win to win a game is turnover differential.

Should there be two stats?  We think so.  Turnovers and takeaways aren’t the same.

In the NFL it’s a don’t give and do take world.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week 10, which ESPN called “Separation Saturday,” is complete.  We looked at it as the last chance to withdraw from a course however.  Some did while others passed with flying colors.  Below is a complete report card of the tests administered to date.  We grade them one nugget at a time.

  1.  Surely in Baton Rouge, under the lights, against a stingy Dave Aranda led LSU defense would provide Alabama their toughest test thus far this season.  Well, Alabama separated themselves from what some billed as their toughest competition to date with ease.  Tua Heisman passed and Bama ran with flying colors.  We think Alabama actually had the LSU run game playbook advanced to them for study.  The Tide gets an A+ by surgically removing LSU from the game possession by possession.  Bama is bigger, stronger, faster, and better coached than all.  Bama is a unanimous no. 1 in the AP Top 25 released yesterday.
  2.  Clemson felt like it was getting ignored in this teacher’s pet conversation over these last few weeks.  No more.  They put a very salty 77 points on now lowly Louisville.  That’s 63,41,59, and now 77 against ACC foes in the last four weeks.  Trevor Lawrence makes one remember Deshaun Watson’s work in the orange uni’s. Give the Tigers an A and a clear no 2 ranking.
  3. Notre Dame and Michigan are nos. 3 and 4 respectively.  Their week one encounter, won by ND, is all that separates these two.  ND beat Northwestern by 10 and gets an A for their 9-0 results thus far, but a B for style points.  Michigan meanwhile is charging ahead.  Their D (not grade) is the best in college football except for the one from Tuscaloosa.  Taking apart a talented Penn St. team 42-7 in the Big House earns the Wolverines an A in the class so far.  They have THE has a final regular season exam looming in Columbus on 11/24.
  4. Georgia went to Kentucky and excelled for four quarters.  The 34-17 win in the Bluegrass State was impressive as the Kentucky defense was unyielding all season till Saturday.  The Bulldogs ran and ran and ran.  Georgia will win the East and earns a B to date and a no. 5 AP rank.
  5. Joining Georgia in the top 10 with one loss is Oklahoma, West Virginia, THE, and Washington St. (LSU is no 9 with two losses).  Each of these students excel in one area but lack discipline in another.  Oklahoma gets an A for O and a D for D.  West Virginia wants to earn an invite to the honors section, but gets a C for D.  THE almost looks like they want to withdraw from school.  All isn’t right in Columbus.  We suspect Professor Urban Meyer is struggling getting through to his students.  The aforementioned Michigan final exam will be tough.  Washington St. wants a pat on the head for work well done to date, but we think their course load(schedule) has a few too many blow off classes(teams).  They haven’t played a ranked team.  And, their 19-13 win over the Nuts from Berkeley puts a few red correction marks on their term paper.
  6. Syracuse rose nine places in the rankings to 13th.  The Orangemen slept in just a bit for their Wake Forest test.   But, once they settled into the exam they scored early, often, and well.  With two losses they have no path to any final four contests, but we wonder if this student is blossoming right before our eyes.  Next year perhaps?  Give them a B for now.
  7.  The Texas Longhorns have three losses and are somehow ranked 15th.  Their head coach, one Tom Herman, is proving to be the clASS clown.  Tom should spend more time coaching a defense that doesn’t slow down good teams and less time whining about things he cannot control.  Several teams ranked below them would be and should be favored over them in Vegas.  Give the team a C+ so far and Tommy Boy a D- in conduct.
  8.  Washington has three losses and a #20 rank.  They are disappointed in themselves.  Wisconsin is another national brand that has underachieved and is relegated to the “others receiving votes” section of the class.  Florida St., at 4-5, has no wins over anyone worth mentioning and is in year two of a cliff dive from prominence.
  9. But the dunce’s cap goes to the man who needed a neck brace a few years ago.  The cap fits squarely on the head of the man in charge of the once high-flying Louisville.   We wonder if Bobby Petrino will get to answer the roll call next year?  Louisville is 2-7 overall, and 0-6 in the ACC.  If you are a Louisville fan the stench emanating from Pitino and Petrino over the last 12 months must make your nostrils burn.  Give Motorcycle Bob an F- if there is such a grade.
  10. Some early lines are out.  Bama is minus a whopping 25.5 hosting Mississippi St.  Vegas cannot get the lines high enough on Bama.  Clemson travels to Boston College as a big 17 point favorite.  Tennessee is a live home dog +3.5 entertaining Kentucky.  Washington St travels to the four losses in a row Colorado Buffaloes as a 4.5 point fav.  And Wisconsin is an 8 point road dog in Happy Valley v Penn St.  One of those two teams will fall further in the loss column than expected before the year began.

Till Saturday.

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part VI.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last weekend’s games didn’t pan out too well for Abby.  It wasn’t a complete washout like the top 25 teams that played did.  More teams (11) ranked in the top 25 lost last week than any other since 1989, and four of them were idle.  Abby wagered a meager 10 bones wary of the pre Halloween money goblins.  She was able to bury only three of them.  Her hunch bet paid again though.

Her season to date performance is 10 up and 10 down in the won/loss column, 31 of 57 bones in the more important money column, and a gaudy 4-1 on hunches.  Week ten is here and as the calendar turns to November the CFB stakes are high.  Abby’s research has her barking confidently about a few games below.

 Tony the Landshark.  Go figure.

South Carolina even at Mississippi -Ole Miss isn’t playing for anything as their past recruiting indiscretions leaves them bowl ineligible.  South Carolina is trying to get to six wins eventually to become bowl eligible.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss is trying to decide on a mascot.  Tony the Landshark supplanted Rebel the Black Bear this year which had supplanted Colonel Reb who retired in 2003.  Abby expects the Gamecocks to make just enough defensive stops.  Two bones.

Iowa +3 at Purdue -The Boilermakers have had a great run.  They crowning achievement was the beat down of THE.  However, drinking too many Boilermakers post game left them hung over for Michigan St. and it showed.  Abby expects a 60 minute dogfight. But in the end she thinks Iowa is the slightly better team.  Two bones.

Arizona -3 v Colorado – Three weeks ago Colorado was undefeated.   After Saturday night Abby thinks they’ll head back to the mountains panting at 5-4.   Arizona isn’t that good of a team, and Abby wonders if Kevin Sumlin is much of a head coach.  But we suspect the offense is ready to roll.  One bone.

Penn St +10.5 at Michigan -The Wolverines are a very good team with a borderline great D.   It’s in The Big House too.  Abby wonders if Vegas is over playing this resurgence a bit.  The line seems a bit high.  Abby likes treats. One Bone.

Texas -2 v West Virginia -The Longhorns found out that being ranked sixth and actually performing like the sixth best team in the country have nothing in common.  Okie St. dropped 60 minutes of reality on them.  We think that they might be smarting from spending the week reading about how go they are (were).  WVa is much better at home than on the road.  Two bones.

Northwestern +9.5 v Notre Dame -Northwestern has won 12 of their last 13 BIG 10 contests.  Impressive.  Yet in week three they lost to Akron.  Jeez.   They won’t win this one, but Abby likes the points to cover.  Two bones.

Florida -6 v Missouri – Missouri forgot to play the fourth quarter v Kentucky last week, losing 15-14 after leading 14-3 in Columbia entering the fourth quarter.  They travel to Gainesville to face a Florida team that Georgia smacked around. Abby thinks that an angry Gator that bares his teeth is nothing to sniff at.   It might get ugly.  Chomp. Chomp.  Three bones.

Georgia -8.5 at Kentucky – This line started at minus 12 and has been bet down three and a half points in four days.   Abby likes to zig when others zag.  Kentucky has played well all year and rallied hard at the wire to beat Mizzou as detailed above.  The Wildcat’s D is legit having surrendered only 10.5 points on average in six SEC slugfests.  This game likely determines the East in the SEC.  Georgia just has too much firepower and covers in the fourth quarter. Three bones.

On a hunch take under 54 in Baton Rouge.  LSU v Bama has been a defensive fist fight for the last several years.  Since 2001 they have combined to go over 54 just twice.   Tua Heisman might change that, but if LSU is going to stay close they won’t do it by outscoring Bama.

There you are.  Abby puts a season high 16 bones on the table spread over eight games.  Being the unbiased, impartial, doggone good journalist that she is, she won’t end this post by howling GEAUX TIGERS!

Woof!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve Got Another Story, and a Moral Thereof.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In the spring of 1983 I was 23 years old, one year out of college, clean-shaven after my bearded line up episode, and one year into the work world.  I knew so much.  I knew so little.  The south Louisiana outside sales territory that I gleefully covered was growing nicely.  Selling Duracell batteries to 23 different classes of trade offered a great work education, modest money(though it seemed like a lot then), and a bit of freedom and fun.  Some days beckoned to bring more freedom and fun than others.

On a particularly sunny Friday I decided that a half day of work and a half day of play was just what was needed to begin my decadent slide into the weekend.  But, as I went from one sales call to the next in the early AM one hour outside of New Orleans, I wondered what the half day play part of the equation should be.

Around the near turn they go at the old Fair Grounds.

I stopped to get a newspaper and a soda.  As I read the sports page the proverbial light bulb turned on.  My favorite over raced racehorse was running in the second race at the oldest race track in America, the New Orleans Fair Grounds.  Post time for race one was 1:15.

As thoughts of beers, cigars, horses, and gambling swirled through my head I knew that I needed an accomplice to share the winnings, swill, and smoke.  Hmm.  The pay phone swallowed my dime and the call went out.  On the other side of the line was one Joseph Roy Miller, aka Joey, aka Jojo.  Joey and I were high school buddies prior, four-year college roommates then, and are best friends to this day.

Ring. Ring.  Joey was finishing his studies at University of New Orleans at that point.  After school he worked at a laboratory to pay for it as well.  “JoJo, Dump Truck is running in the second race today.  He’s always in the money. I’ll pick you up in front of the Life Sciences building in an hour.”  “No, No!” said JoJo.  “I’ve got a Microbiology class at noon and have to work after that.”

Anyone in sales knows that “no” means “yes.”  “I’ll pick you up by 12:30 latest,” I said as I hung up the phone before he could respond.  There were but two problems with this.  And, they soon reared their ugly heads.  The first was that my last appointment of the morning, day, and week wanted to talk too much and buy too little.   I was now late.  The second problem is that I had no way of alerting Joseph of the tardiness.  Cell phones, like Al Gore’s internet, were not yet invented.

The company car, a beauty of an olive-green Chevy Malibu, rolled onto campus.  There stood furious Joey.  “Get in, we are going to be late,” I offered in a self depreciating attempt to defuse the fuse.  He said a few PG-13 or worse things back to me.  It sounded like he didn’t appreciate standing there while missing class and also calling in sick for work, only for me to be 30 minutes late.

I attempted to shift the conversation to the ponies and the day.  “I’ll get the parking, the programs, the tip sheets, and the first cold Dixie beers.” “Big deal,” he smashed back.  “We are going to miss the second race too.”  “We’ll still make it,” I confidently responded.   The Malibu may have run through a few orange (somewhere between yellow and red) lights getting there.  Once parked we race-walked to the bowels of the grandstand.  He was still filling my ear with hatred.  The more he howled the more I laughed.  “Two programs please.”  “Ah, Dump Truck is the five horse today.”

With the first race long gone, we heard the track announcer loud and clear as we stepped through the turnstile. “The horses have reached the starting gate.”  Jeez.  This is a last call of sorts for placing bets.  One quick glance at the lines and we knew getting down on Dump Truck would be dicey.  I jumped in one line, and he in the very next.  I got to the window and wagered a huge, for then, $10/10/10 win, place and show bet on the 5 horse.  “They’re all in line.”  That means “and they’re off” is soon to follow.  Joseph got his w/p/s bet ticket a scant few seconds before the ring, signaling the gate opening, echoed across the grounds.

We hustled outside and joined the rail birds track side.  It was a dollar to gain entry to stand.  It was two bucks to sit in the outdoor grandstand.  It was a steep three dollars to sit inside.  We stood.

The race announcer chirped about the horse’s positions as they roared past us at the start.  Nary a mention of the old and over worked Dump Truck was heard.  We saw the five on the jockey’s silks trailing the field.  The race is long we said.   He’ll make up ground we assured each other.  He continued to languish in dead last at each quarter pole.

As they turned for home on the longest stretch run in America the five horse was saving so much ground we couldn’t even see him.  The announcer clearly had given up on him too.  Still no mention of the old boy.  “And down the stretch they come,” he bellowed.  And there suddenly, like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, was the five climbing past his competition one by one.   “A sixteenth of a mile to go.”  We were hopeful.  The five blew past the second place horse as it cruised by us and hit the wire.  “WINNER, the five.”

As we waited for the tote board to make it official we high-fived in joy.  We also wondered aloud how he came from nowhere, won the race, and yet we never heard his name.  It was weird, fun, and soon to be financially rewarding we hoped.

“The results of the third race are official.  The winner is the five horse, Royal Flush.”  Royal Flush pays $12 to win(on a two dollar bet).”  Royal Flush?  Royal Flush???  We looked at each other and pulled the bet tickets from our pockets.

And there it was.  We had missed the second race.  We had raced in to bet what we thought was the second race.  It was, however, the third race that we had blindly bet on.  We won.  We won over $120 each!  Huge!  We bet the five horse in the third race and had no idea about his chances.  Dump Truck had gone off in the second.  Dump Truck was hosed down and back in the barn eating some hay 20 minutes before we bounced blindly to the betting booth.

“As we cashed our tickets laughing out loud before LOL was even LOL, we went over to the board where the previous race finishes were posted.  And, there it was.  Dump Truck finished a distant fourth, and out of the money, in the second race.  I mentioned to Joey it was obviously better to be late than never.  He mentioned to me that my arm was going to hurt after he punched me.  “Want another Dixie, Joey?”  Cigars never tasted nor smelled better than they did on that afternoon.

What’s the moral of the story?  Easy.  It’s better to be lucky later than good never.  And, it’s fun to have great memories with a great friend.

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In last week’s Ten Piece serving we almost labeled this past Saturday “Separation Saturday.”  We are glad we didn’t.  As it turns out we should have called it “Upset Saturday,” or “Set Up Saturday.”    Eleven of the ranked AP Top 25 teams lost which created no separation.  Eleven is the most since 2006.  Those outcomes set up this coming Saturday to be the most intriguing day this season.  Week ten is upon us and we offer Ten Nuggets to satisfy your CFB hunger below.

  1.  The top five teams had a boring Saturday actually.  Number one Alabama, and nos. 4 and 5 LSU and Michigan had the weekend off.  No. 2 Clemson turned Florida St. inside out 49-10 while no. 3 ND paid only marginal respect to our beloved Navy.  Willie Taggart, HC of the Seminoles, called out his team post game feeling like some of them had quit.  We quibble, but we think that it was more than some.
  2. Georgia pulled away in the second half of the (don’t call it) Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party soundly beating Florida 36-17.  The score almost matched the 36-16 beating LSU administered two weeks ago.  Georgia had a week off to stew.  They looked very determined to ensure they would still play meaningful games as the calendar flips to November.  And sure enough they will, in of all places, Kentucky.
  3. The #11 Kentucky Wildcats made sure of that with an improbable last second comeback at Missouri.  The SEC East is up for grabs at 2:30 CST five days from now when Georgia rolls in.  One of the two one-loss teams will be in the captain’s seat in the SEC East by 6:00 pm.  Kentucky was 300-1 in Vegas in August to win the SEC.  It’s the first half of the CBS doubleheader.
  4. The second half of the CBS “Separation” Saturday doubleheader is a small gathering of 100k fans in Death Valley, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.  The Crimson Tide rolls in with the SEC West hanging in the balance.  LSU is an early, big, 14 point home dog.  Bama has rag dolled everything in its wake by halftime of each (non)contest that they have been in thus far.  Speaking of halftime, future first round pick and LSU middle linebacker extraordinaire Devin White gets to watch the game until then.  LSU fans have expressed overt displeasure with the targeting call that reduced him to first half spectator status.  See their anger here.
  5. Oklahoma dispatched of a different Wildcat to land at #7.  Kansas St. found out what the Sooners’ offense can do sooner than later.  A 34-7 halftime lead turned into a full on rout, 51-14.  One still has to wonder what D Oklahoma can muster as K St. isn’t having its best year under Bill Snyder, the oldest CFB coach at 78 years young.
  6.  Idle on the week UCF is stuck in idle as #9.  The turnstile above and below them in the rankings continues to make us feel that if they want to participate in a parade again this year it will need to be thrown by them, for them, and watched only by them again as no one else seems to care too much.
  7. A warm welcome to the Top 10 goes out to the Washington State Cougars who are #10.  They lead the PAC 10 North now after an impressive win at Stanford.  This comes after their impressive home win over Oregon a week ago.  Mike Leach does it his way and his way has reached the top 10.  Utah sits at #16 and a top the PAC 10 South.  Raise your hand if you predicted a possible Utes v Cougars PAC Championship game.
  8. Michigan, THE, and Penn St. well represent the Big 10 East at nos. 5,8, and 14 respectively.  Iowa is the lone rep from the west side of the conference at 19.  However, Iowa is in a three-way tie for second in that division as Northwestern sits atop.  Northwestern is what we wrote.  It’s no typo.  They are 12-1 in their last 13 Big 10 matchups.   One of the teams tied for second in the west is three loss Wisconsin.  The odds on favorite Badgers came into the season with so much hope and will end it with so much disappointment.
  9.  Nine of the 11 teams that were ranked 15-25 lost.  Seven ranked teams dropped out.  That is the most since 1989.  Jeez.  Notable among the new entries are the Syracuse Orangemen, ranked for the first time since 2001.  Also, Virginia returned after a seven-year hiatus.   Notable among the departures was first time ever, and ranked for one week only, Appalachian St.  The Mountaineers hosted a Thursday night game v. Georgia Southern.  The visitors trounced them 34-14, ending the one week run.
  10.  While seven teams dropped out, the SEC now boasts seven teams in.  The conference places teams at 1,4,6,11,13,21, and 25.  Mississippi St at 21 and Texas A&M at 25 are the only three loss ranked teams for now.
  11.  (or, Plus One) Some early lines are out.  As mentioned above Bama is a 14 point road favorite at LSU.  Can LSU’s D slow down the Tua train to The Downtown Athletic Club?  Can LSU’s O muster enough to stay close?  ND is another road favorite by 7.5 at the aforementioned Northwestern.  West Virginia is a 1.5 point road dog in Austin, TX.  Texas might still be seething from their road loss to Okie St., while West Va. is not the same team on the road.

Till Saturday.

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part V.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby Roux returned to the cashier’s booth last week.  Her lethargy of two week’s ago is gone like last night’s t-bone treat.  For the CFB season she stands strong tall on four paws with a 9-7 won/loss , a 28 of 47 bones, and a 3-1 hunch record all vying for best in show.  Those results are 57%, 60%, and 75% respectively to the good side.

Speaking of the good and side, there are a few good teams sitting on the sidelines this week.  Teams that have played from early September till now without a break are panting like a dog and need a bit of kennel time.  In the AP top ten alone nos. 1,4,5,and 10 rest.  On to the picks where some games look better to her bird dog eye than others.

Stanford -3 v Washington State – The Cougars travel after a huge home party in Pullman last week.  This is a perfect spot for a letdown after they exhausted themselves leading and then outlasting Oregon.  The Cardinal hasn’t really put 60 minutes together yet.  Maybe they will Saturday.  Three bones.

Missouri -7 v Kentucky –  Abby has been chewing on this line all week.  She cannot digest it.  It makes no sense to her.  It’s almost as if the wrong team might be favored.  It’s as if Vegas is begging you to take the Wildcats.  We’ll zig and take the Tigers at home for that reason and that reason alone.  Two bones.

Virginia Tech -3 v Georgia Tech –  Abby knows better than to bet Rambling Wreck games.  It’s her version of chasing parked cars.  Sometimes lessons are learned the hard way.  If the Hokies want to play (they have been uneven this year) this is a 12 point Va Tech cover. If not, it’s another bumper right in the jowls.  One bone.

Michigan St -1/2 v. Purdue – This game is like feels like a walk in the park on a clear 55 degree day with no leash to Ms. Roux.  Purdue travels after a huge home win over THE.  Michigan St. tries to rebound from a Wolverines defensive masterpiece.   The lone flea on it is that Purdue is actually a lot better than Purdue normally is October’s end.  Abby hedges just a bit because of that.  Three bones.

Florida St +16 v Clemson, Kansas St. +24.5 at Oklahoma, and Navy + 23.5 at Notre Dame – The only thing Abby likes better than a big dog is, well, three big dogs.  This is her first exotic bet of the year.  It’s a long shot for obvious reasons.  It’s three big dogs all wrapped up in a three team parlay. She likes the Seminoles better than the Midshipmen, and she likes the Midshipmen better than the Wildcats.  Fearlessly she bundles the three.  One bone to win seven bones.

On a hunch take Mississippi St. -2 over A&M.  A&M hasn’t lost to anyone that they should not have. Jimbo is seeing to that.  We think that Miss State’s trenches are their equal.  This is a late field goal game winner at home for the wounded Bulldogs.  Tread very lightly.

Five bets with four favorites and a three dog tease have us barking with anticipation for Saturday.  It’s 10 bones wagered to win 16.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

The Art of Long Snapping is Now a Science.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

People that really get into sports spend a lot of time talking to people who really get into sports.  Regardless of your favorite sport or sports, you often offer or are offered the following line, “Did you see the(pick one) play, kick, punt, bunt, goal, throw, hit, catch, run, shot, swing, jump, roll, fake, block, or tackle that so and so made in yesterday’s(pick one) game, match, set, event, or meet?”  It’s what sports fans do.  They live for the next greatest something and they talk about it.  Players one up players, and conversational high points one up conversational high points.

Athletes train smarter and harder than ever before.  Most focus on one sport early and attempt to master it.  Parents, coaches, trainers, nutritionists, and camps all focus on making the next generation better than the past.  In many areas this has taken good to great and great to elite.

One such area is place kicking a football.  Field goals have evolved from a hope to an almost certainty inside of forty yards over the last quarter century.  Similarly, field goal accuracy from fifty to sixty yards has improved to the point of no one being surprised when a game winner is struck from these distances.  The decade by decade percent converted improvement is geometric at all levels of competition.  This is but one example of many areas of improved expertise in athletic endeavors over time.

But one area has improved to the point of so near to perfection that we don’t even talk about it anymore.  Perhaps we don’t even see it when we look at it.  What is it?  Long snapping the football is what it is.  Think back through this year to date.  The NCAA FBS schedule is eight games in.  The NFL is seven games in.   Have you seen a bad snap on a field goal or a punt this year at either level?  Has there even been one?  Not the rain, nor the wind, nor the pressure has had even a marginal effect apparently.  This writer hasn’t seen one in person, live on tv, or on any high(low)lights.

A .43 second Google search for “long snapping” turns up thousands of potential matches.  You can watch “how to videos”(even the setup and approach prior to the snap), sign up for any number of snapping camps run by seasoned pros, or even see who has been offered a scholarship to a FBS school to snap.  Smart college coaching staffs value special teams.  Those that value special teams certainly recruit and sign a great snapper as one of their allowed 85 scholarships.

Great college snappers vie for 32 pro jobs.  Every NFL team has one excellent snapper.  That snapper makes the league minimum at a minimum.  How much is that? Well, for 2018 its $465,000 for a rookie and the scale increases gradually by years of employment.  If you are in your tenth year the min is a smooth $1,000,000.  The best of all make even more.

Long snapping might be the specialty of special teams play.  Every punt has a snap and a punt.  Every place kick has a snap, a hold, and a kick.  We watch the kicks.  We don’t even see the snaps anymore.

It’s great work if you can get it.  But shy of perfection you need not apply.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If college football was a horse race the announcer would exclaim, “they’ve hit the far turn.”  Eight games, or two-thirds in of twelve, the games never fail to intrigue.  As they make the turn, we head to the nuggets.

  1.  A speed horse is one that jumps way out front and burns out, eventually giving way to the field.  But, Alabama is no speed horse.  It’s the class of the race.  Sitting unanimously at no. 1 in the new AP Top 25, it’s looking back at the field wondering if there is a worthy challenger.  They stay in the barn this coming week prepping for a Baton Rouge run v. the now # 4 LSU Tigers.
  2.  THE Ohio St. wasn’t running a clean race for weeks, but was still rambling down the backstretch in second.  They were. Purdue handed them their third loss in three years to an inferior Big 10 opponent.   The Boilermakers of Purdue kicked mud in THE’s eye.  THE fell back hard to 11th.  If they win out and beat Michigan in the season finale, who knows?
  3. Clemson jockeyed to second with a convincing romp of undefeated pretender North Carolina St.  Clemson wants everyone to know that they still own the ACC.  In a distant second in the ACC is, well, North Carolina St. The Wolfpack dropped back to 23.
  4.  Notre Dame is 3 and LSU, off of an uneven but defensively dominating 19-3 win over Mississippi St., now holds the coveted 4th spot.  They’ll likely hold it next week too as they lick their wounds from a tough early track with an off week as well.  Alabama visits on 11/3.  One would wager that College Gameday will visit on 11/3 as well.
  5. Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Florida make up the next five through nine.  They are all tightly bunched and one or two could break free as we soon turn for home.  They all have one loss.  Michigan stands out though.  They are lurking at 5.  The Wolverines allowed a meager, paltry, miserly 94 total yards to decent in state rival Michigan St. Their only loss was in week one to the Fighting Irish, and is a minor blemish now.
  6. One of Georgia and Florida will be put out to pasture as far as title aspirations go this weekend.  The “Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” that you cannot call “The Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” anymore gets served straight with ice on Saturday.  The #9 Gators opened yesterday as a nine-point dog to the Bulldogs.
  7.  UCF wants to know if anyone cares to notice that they are #10.  It seems not.  They seem to only run in claiming races.  And, no one claims them.   They really need to schedule stronger out of conference foes.
  8.  For 13 years no one noticed Washington St. either.  For 216 straight weeks of GameDay shows, someone’s shown up to wave a giant Washington State flag, no matter how far away from Pullman, WA.  On this past Saturday, college football took notice and Oregon paid for it as 20k plus Washington St. faithful watched the ESPN show on campus.  Then, even more watched the show that Mike Leach’s team put on .  The final was 34-27 Cougars over the Ducks of Oregon, but the first half Cougar domination was impressive.  They bolted all the way up to 13th.  It’s the highest ranked PAC 10 team.  That’s good for them and not so good for the left coast.
  9. Hello Appalachian St.  Is there a more appropriate nickname than the Mountaineers?
    Sunset from Cowee Mountains Overlook, on the Blue Ridge Parkway in North Carolina.

    They are ranked for the first time ever at 25.  After being a major thorn in then called D-1 schools for a long while, the Mountaineers joined the FBS in 2014.   They play in the Sun Belt Conference if you don’t know, and sport a 3-0 record in bowl games thus far.  ‘Where are they from,’ you ask?  Well, they hail from proud Boone, NC. of course.

  10. The SEC has spots 1,4,7,9,12, and 16 this week.  Wow!  Over the final month they’ll beat each other up as almost all games left are in the divisions inside of the conference.  One stands way out, while some of the others hope to ascend to greater notoriety.
  11. (or plus one)  Some early lines are out.  Missouri -6 hosts Kentucky.  It almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Almost.  Washington St. is a 3 point road dog to Stanford.   The happy Cougars need to avoid a low after the Pullman high.  NC St is a one point dog at Syracuse.  The one loss Wolfpack get little respect.  Maybe they haven’t earned much?  Clemson is a 17 point road favorite over Florida St.  WWBBS?  What Would Bobby Bowden Say?

Till five days from now.

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part IV

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby accepted one too many dog treats and pats on the head after her two-week domination v. Vegas.   A quick trip to the vet late Saturday evening seems to have her focused again for her fourth week.  It’s college football’s week nine, and it’s getting interesting.

After a 4 bone win with 11 bones wagered and a 3-3  win/loss week, Abby Roux stands on all four paws at 21 bones buried with 36 wagered and 9 wins v. 7 losses season to date.  Vegas got a bit back but Abby still has plenty gnaw on.  Her hunch bet (Miss.) lost, but her prediction of a very high( she said 51-37 Miss. over Ark.) scoring affair prevailed. The over covered.   Regardless her hunches are now 2-1.

Week Eight has some doggone good match ups that make for fun viewing.  Let’s roll some bones.

Auburn -3 at Ole Miss -Abby nearly covered(minus 7 won by only 4) on Miss. last week on a hunch.  Everyone wants to know what is wrong with Auburn after a loss to a Tennessee team that hadn’t won a conference game in over a year.   Ole Miss is about to find out.  The answer Saturday is…… nothing is wrong.  Four bones.

Stanford -2.5 at Arizona St. -This isn’t Stanford’s best team.  This isn’t Arizona State’s best team either.  This isn’t the PAC 10’s best year.

If this game was at the tree huggers we would five bone it.  It isn’t.  Two bones.

North Carolina St. +17.5 at Clemson – NC St. is undefeated.  I guess Vegas doesn’t think much of their competition thus far.  Or, maybe they think Clemson will roll at home.  This line almost is out of line and makes Abby want to paw the pay dirt with Clemson.  But, she’ll take the heavy points in a light way.  One bone.

Miss St. +7 at LSU -It’s Homecoming in BR.  It’s also “we beat Georgia hangover” in BR.  The Bulldogs feature a stout D line and a solid running game.  Both are important to play LSU tight.    Moo St. was off last week.  We mentioned the LSU win last week v GA.  Next week LSU is off.  The week after they play Alabama.  This is a classic trap game.  Three bones.

Purdue +14 v. THE Ohio St U -Purdue has played pretty well against pretty good competition thus far.  THE has played down to the level of some of their competition.  This one is in Indiana.  It’s not much more than a hunch bet.  One bone.

On a hunch take Nebraska at home to cover 3 1/2 over the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  If Nebraska falls to 0-7 Abby recommends that they bury their head in shame in the nearest gopher hole.

There they are, four road teams and one home.  Three dogs and two chalks.  Eleven bones are there for the taking plus one Cornhusker hunch.

Woof!